MOB issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Apr 2, 12:14 AM CDT ...New Aviation...496
FXUS64 KMOB 020514
AFDMOB
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
1214 AM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025
...New Aviation...
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 338 PM CDT Tue Apr 1 2025
Looking at a fairly dry week as a rather large ridge setup over
the western Atlantic and gradually noses into the southeastern US.
This pattern will likely stay in place for the entirety of the
work week. Deep southwesterly flow between the western periphery
of the ridge and a rather deep upper trough over the western US
will persist over the area allowing for deep gulf moisture to
surge northward. The only rain chances through Friday will likely
occur in the form of a few isolated showers across southeastern
Mississippi Wednesday and Thursday afternoons. These showers will
likely be in response to a couple of shortwaves progressing well
off to our northwest on those days. Heading into the weekend, the
pattern should finally breakdown as a stronger upper trough
finally moves eastward and the upper ridge breaks down. This will
likely bring a round of showers and thunderstorms along the
approaching cold front on Sunday. Looking at some of the analog
guidance and machine learning guidance, we will likely have to at
least keep an eye on this period for a potential severe risk.
However, given timing uncertainties and overall progression of the
system it will be something we keep an eye on for the coming
days.
Given the rather strong subsidence in place from the upper ridge
and the deep southwesterly flow, expect the next few days to be
the first real taste of late spring to early summer. Highs will
likely sit in the mid to upper 80s and would not be surprised if
a few locations flirt with the first 90 degree day of the year.
Dewpoints will also be up with increased moisture across the area
leading to warm lows and a rather sticky feeling. Good news is
that behind this weekends cold front there appears to be a
temporary cool down.
Coastal Hazards...Given the strong southeasterly flow at the
surface persisting for several days, some coastal hazards will be
expected. The biggest concern will be with the potential for rip
currents across all area beaches. Have noticed that with the
stronger winds tomorrow that some guidance is hinting at us
flirting with coastal flood advisory criteria. Confidence in this
is low; however, if we see any uptrend then a coastal flood
advisory may be needed for Mobile Bay as some water could splash
over the usual trouble spots along the causeway. We will also have
to monitor the midweek period as a larger swell packet moves in
which could be enough for a high surf advisory. Like the coastal
flooding confidence on this is low as of now. BB-8
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1214 AM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025
VLIFR conditions develop across the coastal counties overnight
then improve to IFR/MVFR by mid Wednesday morning. IFR conditions
are expected to develop over interior areas tonight then improve
to MVFR/VFR conditions Wednesday morning. Southeasterly winds 5-10
knots increase to 15-20 knots on Wednesday. /29
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 338 PM CDT Tue Apr 1 2025
Light to moderate southeasterly flow will increase to moderate to
occasionally strong tonight. Strong southeasterly flow will
persist on Wednesday leading to a Small Craft Advisory being
issued for parts of the marine waters. Although winds are expected
to relax by the end of the week, seas may remain elevated enough
to where small craft conditions could continue towards the
weekend. Our next chance for rain will come Sunday as a cold front
approaches from the northwest. BB-8
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile 70 83 70 81 69 82 67 78 / 0 10 0 10 0 10 30 80
Pensacola 70 78 70 78 70 78 71 77 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 10 70
Destin 70 78 70 78 70 78 71 77 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 10 60
Evergreen 67 85 66 86 64 86 66 78 / 0 10 0 0 0 10 20 80
Waynesboro 69 87 69 86 68 86 65 73 / 0 10 0 20 0 30 60 80
Camden 67 86 67 87 65 87 66 75 / 0 10 0 0 0 10 30 90
Crestview 66 83 65 84 64 83 66 80 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 10 70
&&
.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CDT this morning for ALZ261>266.
High Rip Current Risk from 7 AM CDT this morning through
Saturday evening for ALZ265-266.
FL...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CDT this morning for FLZ201>206.
High Rip Current Risk from 7 AM CDT this morning through
Saturday evening for FLZ202-204-206.
MS...None.
GM...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CDT this morning for GMZ630>636-
650-655.
Small Craft Advisory from 6 AM this morning to 1 PM CDT Thursday
for GMZ650-670.
&&
$$
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www.weather.gov/mob
Source:
MOB issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Apr 2, 12:14 AM CDT ...New Aviation...---------------
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