WCO issues Area Hydrological Discussion (AHD) at Apr 4, 5:02 PM CDT895
AGUS74 KWCO 042209
AHDNWC
Area Hydrological Discussion #043 - EXPERIMENTAL
NWS National Water Center - Tuscaloosa, AL
502 PM CDT Fri Apr 04 2025
WHAT: Considerable flash, urban, and small stream flooding possible
WHERE: Missouri, Illinois, Indiana
WHEN: Through early tomorrow morning
Forecast Rainfall and Antecedent Conditions...
QPF: 2 - 4" (HRRR)
QPE: 1 - 3" (past 48 hours, MRMS)
Rainfall Rates: 1 - 2" /hr, locally higher (HRRR)
Soils: Nearly saturated (NASA SPoRT)
Discussion...
Another round of heavy rainfall has moved over MO and is expected to
traverse eastward into IL/IN through the overnight hours. Recent
rainfall has primed the area for efficient runoff processes in MO and
southern IL/IN, with topsoils at 65% RSM (0 - 10 cm, NASA SPoRT),
but there is a distinct boundary that loosely following I-70 that has
more normal soil conditions to its north. The magnitude of flooding
impacts will likely be higher should the heaviest rain set up south
of that boundary. Streamflows are elevated throughout the area of
concern and have little storage capacity for runoff. Considerable
flash, urban, and small stream flooding is possible anywhere heavy
rainfall rates and/or storm training occurs.
The National Water Model (NWM) Short-Range Forecast (SRF) is
indicating consistent placement of small stream responses through
central MO/IL/IN with rapid-onset flooding (ROF) probabilities in the
50 - 100% range. Corresponding signals from the SRF highflow
magnitude service support the potential for considerable flash
flooding/ROF across the same area with a band of impressive annual
exceedance probabilities in the 10 - 2% range. Major metropolitan
areas included in the area of concern include St. Louis, MO and
Indianapolis, IN.
GRAPHICAL REPRESENTATION weather.gov/owp/operations-ahd
Additional National Water Center products are available at
weather.gov/owp/operations
//Bliss
ATTN...WFO...ILN...CLE...IWX...SGF...ILX...LOT...PAH...LSX...IND
ATTN...RFC...ORN...KRF...MSR...TIR...WPC
Source:
WCO issues Area Hydrological Discussion (AHD) at Apr 4, 5:02 PM CDT---------------
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