BOX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Mar 30, 12:19 AM EDT734
FXUS61 KBOX 300419
AFDBOX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
1219 AM EDT Sun Mar 30 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Freezing rain/drizzle may impact the higher elevations in
northern and western MA tonight. Drizzle and mist will continue
through Monday morning with chilly temperatures. A warm front
will cross the region late Sunday night or Monday morning
bringing much milder temperatures by Monday afternoon. A cold
front will bring showers along with the risk of downpours and a
rumble or two of thunder late Monday/Monday night. Dry weather
returns Tuesday and Wednesday with temperatures trending cooler.
Milder temperatures return Thursday and Friday with perhaps a
round of showers.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
Key Messages:
* Cold tonight following the exit of a stationary boundary and the
entrance of a colder airmass
* Winter Weather Advisory for possible ice accumulation from
freezing rain tonight across the higher terrain (AOA 1,000 ft) in
northern and western MA
Details...
The boundary has almost completely moved south of the
region, with part of it still over southern CT and across the
Islands according to the latest WPC analysis. NE winds are expected
to continue through much of tonight, then shifting more to the east
after midnight. The colder air behind this front will stick around
through tonight bringing lows down into the 30s for southern New
England; 925 mb temperatures are forecast to remain below 0C until
tomorrow afternoon. Continued misty and drizzle conditions can be
expected, along with the chance for some showers across much of the
area and freezing rain across north central and northwestern MA. A
Winter Weather Advisory will remain in effect through tonight for
parts of the northern Berkshires and Worcester Hills as a result.
Forecast soundings remain consistent in indicating a good freezing
rain signal across northern and NW MA. HREF probabilities indicate
up to a 20% chance for 24 hour accumulations of ice greater than
0.1" towards Worcester, but the highest probabilities lie north
along the border. Accumulations to 0.2" are also possible in the
highest areas. Lower confidence exists in ice accretion in NE MA due
to lower elevation and warmer expected surface temperatures.
For the rest of the region, drizzle with mist can be expected
through tonight into tomorrow morning.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
Key Messages:
* Another chilly and cloudy day for southern New England with
showers or drizzle remaining a possibility throughout
* Scattered showers with drizzle and fog continue into tomorrow
night and Monday morning
* Milder going into Monday
Details...
Cloudy, chilly, and misty conditions will linger going into
tomorrow. Freezing rain may linger in the higher elevations in the
morning hours. High temperatures are expected to be mostly in the
40s for much of the region, with CT and RI getting closer to 50F. In
northern areas, forecast soundings indicate the start of an
inversion just below 925 mb, while areas in CT and RI may mix to 925
mb, tapping into the very slightly warmer air: just above 0C up
through much of MA to around 5C in RI, CT, and across SE MA to the
Cape and Islands). A shortwave moving into the Great Lakes region
and its surface low will likely shift winds across southern New
England more to the south as they move east. Occasional showers
mainly north of the Mass Pike will be possible throughout the day
with higher moisture there due to drier air moving in from the south.
The colder airmass will begin to move out of the area going into
Monday morning ahead of the next system. A passing warm front will
bring temperatures aloft up through 10C and into the teens at 925
mb, bringing temperatures up towards the 50s Monday morning. Misty
conditions will likely linger into this period as well.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Key Messages...
* Much warmer on Monday ahead of a cold front which brings
widespread showers and embedded thunderstorms late Monday and
Monday night.
* Dry but cooler Tuesday and Wednesday.
* More unsettled but warmer weather arrives late week with another
cold front behind.
Monday and Monday night...
Following the cold and raw weekend, Monday will be a breath of fresh
air as a warm front lifts north of southern New England bringing the
return of temperatures well into the 60s. This is thanks to a
surface low which lifts from the Great Lakes Sunday night into Nova
Scotia by Monday night. This drags the warm front into northern New
England bringing a plume of moisture overhead with dewpoints in the
mid 50s and PWATs approaching 1.5". This, together with ample
forcing from a 45-60 kt LLJ, placement beneath the right entrance
region of a 300 mb jet, and the surface cold front will lead to
widespread rain including some heavy downpours and even some
embedded thunder. There is some marginal instability available with
several hundred J/kg of MUCAPE in the warm sector late Monday/Monday
night. By the time the rain moves out Tuesday morning 0.5-1 inches
of rain are likely to have fallen.
Tuesday and Wednesday...
A sprawling surface high pressure moves overhead Tuesday into
Wednesday providing dry weather and cooler temperatures. Under cool
northern flow temperatures on Tuesday likely don't make it out of
the 40s in northern MA while reaching the mid 50s further south. The
much colder air then arrives overnight with lows dipping into the
20s (about 15 degrees colder than Monday night). All of southern New
England will see highs in the 40s on Wednesday.
Thursday into the weekend...
Another storm system moving out of the northern Plains then slides
northeast, suppressing the east coast ridge and bringing the return
of rain chances to New England. There remains uncertainty as to how
far north the best forcing/moisture goes into northern New England
depending on the track of the low, but rain is expected sometime
around Thursday/early Friday ahead of the cold front. A surge of WAA
ahead of the front will bring highs once again into the 60s at least
on Thursday, potentially Friday as well before the colder air
arrives.
&&
.AVIATION /04Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
06z TAF Update...
Today...High Confidence.
Low end MVFR-IFR with localized LIFR conditions in
low clouds along with areas of drizzle and fog today. A few showers
will be possible too...but generally looking at mainly areas of
drizzle for the majority of the day. The lingering freezing
drizzle in the Worcester Hills and Berks should change to
drizzle by mid to late morning as temps rise above freezing. ENE
winds generally less than 10 knots.
Tonight...High Confidence.
IFR to LIFR conditions in low clouds along with areas of
drizzle and fog. There will also be a few showers too. Light E
winds will gradually shift to the SSW as a warm front slowly
works northward at least across the southern half of the region
by daybreak. LLWS will also be a concern given the strengthening
southerly LLJ.
Monday...High Confidence.
Low end MVFR-IFR conditions dominate with some localized LIFR
cigs/vsbys. There will also be some scattered showers too. SSW
wind gusts of 20 to 30 knots developing with perhaps a few gusts
up to 35 knots.
BOS TAF...High confidence in TAF.
BDL TAF...High confidence in TAF.
Outlook /Monday Night through Thursday/...
Monday: Mainly MVFR, with areas IFR possible. Windy with gusts
up to 30 kt. Chance SHRA, areas BR.
Monday Night: Mainly IFR, with areas MVFR possible. Windy with
areas of gusts up to 30 kt. SHRA.
Tuesday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Breezy.
Tuesday Night: VFR. Breezy.
Wednesday: VFR.
Wednesday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Breezy.
Chance SHRA, slight chance FZRA, slight chance PL.
Thursday: Windy with local gusts up to 30 kt. Chance SHRA.
&&
.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels:
Low - less than 30 percent.
Medium - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
Saturday Night through Sunday: High Confidence.
A front stalls across the waters through tonight. ENE winds
across the eastern waters, with W to SW winds across the
southern waters. Gusts are likely to remain below 25 kt, so
expect rough seas to develop across the outer coastal waters
through Sunday. Thus, Small Craft Advisories are posted for this
time frame. Additionally, low clouds, periods of rain, drizzle,
and fog are likely during this time frame along with poor
visibility.
Outlook /Monday Night through Thursday/...
Monday: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts
up to 30 kt. Areas of rough seas. Chance of rain showers, areas
fog.
Monday Night: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with
gusts up to 30 kt. Rough seas up to 10 ft. Rain showers.
Visibility 1 to 3 nm.
Tuesday: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with
gusts up to 25 kt. Areas of rough seas. Chance of rain showers.
Tuesday Night: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with
gusts up to 25 kt. Areas of rough seas.
Wednesday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft.
Wednesday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. Slight
chance of rain showers.
Thursday: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with
gusts up to 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. Chance of rain showers.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...Winter Weather Advisory until 11 AM EDT this morning for
MAZ002>004-008-026.
RI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT this morning for ANZ235-
237.
Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT early this morning for
ANZ250.
Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT this afternoon for ANZ254.
Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for ANZ255-
256.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BW/Hrencecin
NEAR TERM...Hrencecin
SHORT TERM...Hrencecin
LONG TERM...BW
AVIATION...Frank/BW
MARINE...BW/Hrencecin
Source:
BOX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Mar 30, 12:19 AM EDT----------------
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