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507 FXUS64 KMOB 060918AFDMOBArea Forecast DiscussionNational Weather Service Mobile AL418 AM CDT Thu Jun 6 2024...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE....NEAR TERM...(Now through Friday)Issued at 410 AM CDT Thu Jun 6 2024Remnant MCV noted on IR satellite imagery this morning over interior southwest MS, drifting down to the southeast toward coastal MS. This feature, interacting with an upper level shortwave through that will be dropping southeast across the region, will likely help initiate another round of convection today, beginning during the predawn hours over parts of southern MS and southwest AL, and then becoming more numerous over coastal southwest AL, interior south central AL (along and east of I-65) and the western FL panhandle shortly after daybreak this morning. Most of the CAM's indicate this general trend, with the latest runs of the HRRR particularly seeming to initialize very well with current radar trends (with the isolated convection currently developing up around the northwestern portions of our forecast area (Choctaw county). The shortwave trough weakens and moves east of our area by late this afternoon, so highest POPs will likely be through the morning hours and into the early afternoon, and then decreasing late in the day. Slightly drier deep layer airmass moves into region for tonight on the backside of the upper trough, with any lingering POPs (only about a 20 percent chance), being near the coast overnight. On Friday, a late season cold front is expected to drop south across our area continues to inch through the area on Friday, with PWAT's dropping below 1 inch across much of interior southeast MS and southwest AL. This front may even drop south of the coast by the end of the day. Look for a small chance for isolated showers and storms (POPs less than 20 percent) along immediate coastal areas Friday afternoon as the front sags south and when peak heating is maximized, but otherwise most areas should remain dry as high pressure builds across the region just to the north of the front. As far as temperatures go, look for highs today to be in the mid to upper 80s across the entire area, with lows tonight mainly in the upper 60s for interior locations and low to mid 70s closer to and along the coast. Even with the "cold" front moving through on Friday, the increasingly dry airmass and subsidence associated with the building high pressure will result in a hot day, with highs climbing into the lower 90s for most areas (perhaps even a few isolated spots seeing mid 90s), except for some locations along the immediate coast, where the afternoon sea breeze will keep temperatures in the upper 80s. There will be a MODERATE rip current today, LOW tonight and Friday. DS/12 &&.SHORT TERM...(Friday night through Saturday night)Issued at 410 AM CDT Thu Jun 6 2024An upper level trough over eastern portions of the Southeast moves off and an upper level ridge moves east over the Lower Mississippi River. A dry cool front moves south of the forecast area Friday night, ushering in mainly a drier airmass for the beginning of the weekend. Increasing upper subsidence from the advancing upper ridge will bring temperatures rising above seasonal norms for Saturday, with high temperatures ranging from around 90 to the low 90s. Heat indices are not expected to rise significantly above the ambient air temperatures with the decrease in moisture levels for Saturday. Clearing Friday night will allow temperatures to drop to below seasonal norms. Mainly 60s are expected over the forecast area, with around 70 along the coast. Saturday sees an uptick in low temperatures with the increased subsidence, rising into the mid to upper 60s with around 70 to low 70s south of I-10.A decreasing tidal cycle and relatively light winds offshore will keep the rip current risk a low levels through the weekend into the coming week./16&&.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Wednesday)Issued at 410 AM CDT Thu Jun 6 2024Guidance is advertising a shortwave trough passing north of the forecast area Sunday into Monday. A front moves south across the Southeast in response, shifting moisture that has pooled along the front over the weekend south to the northern Gulf coast and northern Gulf as it stalls near the coast. The moisture increase along with a deeper trough digging over the eastern conus will bring a chance of showers and thunderstorms Monday forecast area wide, shifts closer to the coast into Tuesday. Guidance is advertising another upper trough moving southeast over the eastern Conus, shifting the upper ridge back west. Any drier air moving over the forecast area shifts quickly north as southerly low level flow returns by mid week. Temperatures cool a bit to near seasonal norms as the upper ridge shifts back west./16&&.MARINE...Issued at 410 AM CDT Thu Jun 6 2024No significant impacts are expected through the period except for higher winds and seas near any thunderstorms that develop. Best chances for storms over the marine area will be today and tonight, with few storms over the weekend before increasing in coverage once again early next week. A light to occasionally moderate onshore flow today becomes more westerly tonight and west to northwest for Friday and Friday night. A somewhat variable light to moderate flow is then expected over the weekend and into the early part of next week. DS/12&&.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...Mobile 86 71 93 67 91 69 93 72 / 70 10 10 0 0 0 10 10 Pensacola 85 73 92 71 91 72 92 75 / 80 20 20 0 0 0 10 10 Destin 85 75 89 73 89 74 90 77 / 80 30 10 10 0 0 10 10 Evergreen 87 69 92 63 91 66 94 69 / 70 10 10 0 0 0 10 20 Waynesboro 88 68 92 63 91 67 93 69 / 50 0 0 0 0 0 10 20 Camden 88 68 89 61 89 65 92 69 / 60 0 0 0 0 0 20 20 Crestview 88 69 94 65 92 66 96 70 / 80 10 10 0 0 0 10 10 &&.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...AL...None.FL...None.MS...None.GM...None.&&$$This product is also available on the web at:www.weather.gov/mob
