ILN issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jun 10, 10:07 PM EDT822
FXUS61 KILN 110207
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
1007 PM EDT Mon Jun 10 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure and cooler air settles in through Tuesday night. The
cool air mass is replaced by much warmer air as the high pressure
shifts to the east through midweek. The warming trend continues
through the end of the week. A cold front approaches the region
Friday, providing a brief interruption to the heat on Saturday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
Clouds will be moving out of the southeast counties over the
next few hours. Still could see a few clouds drifting out of
north central Ohio into central Ohio, but these should be
minimal. Forecast lows look reasonable.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
High pressure parks overhead Tuesday and Tuesday night. Winds remain
light and variable under the surface high along with fair weather
skies. Temperatures stay below mid June averages and humidity values
persist on the lower side for this time of year. Forecast highs on
Tuesday are in the middle to upper 70s. Forecast lows on Tuesday
night are in the middle 50s.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Surface high pressure continues to work its way east at the start of
the period, placing the Ohio Valley on the western periphery. This
results in increased southerly low level flow around the backside of
the high. Temperatures and Tds respond, with highs on Wednesday in
the low 80s. Dry conditions remain in place during the overnight
hours into Thursday morning.
Thursday afternoon we begin to feel warmer, with high temperatures
reaching the upper 80s/low 90s. However, a disturbance near the
Hudson Bay area will drag a cold front through the mid-Atlantic
region Thursday night, resulting in in low end shower/storm chances
for our area with some temperature moderation for Friday. Moisture
is pretty meager with only a brief plume of higher PWATs moving
through the area and overall QPF footprint isn't much.
Any remaining showers move out of the region on Friday and a
slightly cooler airmass follows, resulting in high temperatures in
the mid 80s (still 3-5 degrees above climatological normals) and
overnight lows in the low 60s (near normal). Saturday and Saturday
night are more of the same with dry conditions as high pressure
moves in from the west.
With the arrival of this high pressure and mid/upper level ridging,
the heat will really be cranked up as we head into the end of the
weekend and start of the following work week. High temperatures
continue to trend into the 90s. The recently rolled out Heat Risk
Tool indicates a "Moderate" risk (level of heat affects most
individuals sensitive to heat, especially those without effecting
cooling and/or adequate hydration)... visit heat.gov for additional
details.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Other than a few clouds possibly lingering at the Columbus
terminals over the next few hours, it will be clear other than
perhaps a bit of additional cumulus developing late in the
period in central Ohio. It is not out of the question that some
fog/mist could develop at KLUK between 06Z and 12Z, so included
a temporary visibility restriction there. Winds will be light
and remain generally north to northwesterly.
OUTLOOK...No significant weather expected.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Campbell
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...Campbell
LONG TERM...CA
AVIATION...
Source:
ILN issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jun 10, 10:07 PM EDT---------------
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