ILN issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Mar 26, 2:01 PM EDT114
FXUS61 KILN 261801
AFDILN
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
201 PM EDT Wed Mar 26 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
A weak system will bring a chance for showers today. Warmer
temperatures along with showers and a chance of thunderstorms will
arrive later Thursday into Friday as a warm front pivots north
through the area. A wet weather pattern will continue this weekend
with a good threat for showers and thunderstorms Sunday as cold front
approaches and moves through the area.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Latest day cloud satellite imagery, surface observations and web
cams - show visibility improvement as fog and low stratus continues
to erode. Therefore, have allowed the dense fog advisory to expire.
Focus shifts for potential for showers this afternoon. Amplified mid
level flow characterized by a long wave ridge over the west and a
trof over the eastern CONUS. Mean trof shifting east with a northwest
flow over the area. As sheared out vort moves across the area this
afternoon. Forecast soundings show steepening of low-level lapse
rates. Also, to note the low levels remain rather dry.
CAM solutions show some scattered to widely scattered shower
activity developing later this aftn. Have adjusted shower timing a
little later and further north due to cool air left from eroding
fog/status field. This pcpn to push to the southeast ending early
this evening.
Temperatures look to be a few degrees below normal with highs from
near 50 north to the mid 50s south.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
While the more dominant trough finally begins to shift away from the
area, the region broadly remains stuck in mid to upper level
northwesterly flow. Closer the surface, Rocky Mountain lee-side
cyclogenesis is forecast to continue over the central Plains. This
will support isentropic lift over the lower Midwest Thursday. A weak
system moving within the northwest flow enhances broad scale lift
Thursday morning into the afternoon leading to increasing chances for
rain throughout the day. Highest confidence in rainfall Thursday
afternoon is across eastern Indiana, southwest Ohio, and northern
Kentucky. This activity shifts southward toward the evening, but
lingering, more scattered showers will continue to the north.
Due to the earlier arrival of thicker clouds and rainfall,
temperatures across the far western portions of the area (eastern
Indiana and western Ohio) are the coolest spots. Furthest away from
the initial action, portions of southern Ohio and northern Kentucky
still have a chance to reach the 60 degree mark before the rain
moves in.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Scattered showers may be still ongoing across southern counties to
start the period but will be on the decrease. However, as a short
wave tracks eastwards late Thursday night into Friday and a warm
front lifts north, showers will increase in coverage once again and
push north and east across the region.
Temperatures will then be well above normal and moisture will stream
into the region on robust southerly flow that will tap Gulf
moisture. An initial short wave will be weakening as it lifts
northeast out of the mid South and into the Great Lakes. This will
bring showers across the forecast area Saturday afternoon into
Saturday night.
The next system will be moving east out of the central Plains on
Sunday and cross the region Sunday night into Monday. There does
appear to be a weak impulse ahead of this trough that will cross the
area possibly Sunday afternoon and evening. There remain plenty of
questions how much instability may develop into the area, especially
if there are few breaks in the clouds that will be lingering from the
Saturday night system, which is what much of the data suggests at
this point in time. So for now, will just continue to keep a keen eye
on how this evolves with subsequent model runs.
Cold front will move through early Monday with the potential for
some showers to linger in the wake of the frontal passage. High
pressure will build in Monday night and Tuesday. Temperatures will
drop back to a bit below normal for the early part of next week.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Northwest flow over the area with a sheared out vort moving across
the area this afternoon. Forecast soundings show steepening of low-
level lapse rates. Also, to note from the forecast soundings - the
low levels remain rather dry.
CAM solutions show some scattered to widely scattered shower
activity developing later this aftn. Have adjusted shower timing a
little later and further north due to cool air left from eroding
fog/status field. Have handled shower threat with a VCSH at all but
KCMH/KLCK. This pcpn to push to the southeast ending early this
evening. Northwest to west winds 10-12kt will gust up to 18 kts at
times this afternoon.
After 00Z, winds calm and become variable. Winds will switch
direction on Thursday, becoming southerly. Another system approaches
after 12Z, with additional rain chances occurring during the
afternoon. Mid and high level clouds in the morning will lower with
VFR ceilings around 5000 feet developing during the aftn. Have a
VCSH mention after 18Z at KCVG. .
OUTLOOK...MVFR conditions possible at times Thursday night through
Sunday.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...AR
NEAR TERM...AR
SHORT TERM...McGinnis
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...AR
Source:
ILN issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Mar 26, 2:01 PM EDT---------------
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