PBZ issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Mar 26, 10:46 AM EDT095
FXUS61 KPBZ 261446
AFDPBZ
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
1046 AM EDT Wed Mar 26 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Below average temperatures today will be followed by a warm up
through the weekend. Marginal fire weather concerns for
Thursday. Rain and storm chances return Friday through Sunday,
followed by a cooldown early next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
KEY MESSAGES:
- Scattered snow showers possible through early afternoon,
particularly north of I-76.
- Cloudy skies minimize fire conditions for majority of the
region this afternoon.
- Winds will ease tonight.
-------------------------------------------------------------------
A stratocu deck with the colder air with some linger snow showers
mainly north of I-76 and over the higher elevations. Despite
the light precipitation, marginal fire concerns may pop up again
this afternoon for eastern Ohio given limited to no QPF,
afternoon gusts in the 20mph to 30mph range, and mostly clear
conditions leading to relative humidities forecast in the
mid-20s to low 30s.
High temperatures are expected to remain about 5 to 10 degrees below
normal. Tonight, expect clearing as winds become relatively light
and variable. By tomorrow morning, expect some scattered clouds to
move in from the southwest.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
KEY MESSAGES:
- Marginal fire weather conditions expected Thursday with warmer
temperatures.
- Shower chances increase Friday. Temperatures continue to warm.
-------------------------------------------------------------------
High pressure and increased subsidence on Thursday, with
temperatures turning above average again with weak warm
advection. This may correlate to a day of more high-based
cumulus in otherwise mostly clear skies with efficient mixing.
This will lend to yet another day of fire weather conditions,
with winds a tad calmer and humidity a bit lower.
An elongated warm front is most likely to advance from the
southwest into Friday pushing temperatures around 10 degrees
above average, with increasing precipitation chances. Frontal
timing uncertainty will influence the extent of temperature
rises and the timing of precipitation. In the slower scenario,
precipitation chances do not increase until the afternoon with
highs around 10 degrees above normal. In the faster scenario,
precipitation chances begin in the morning, with highs around 20
degrees above normal.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
KEY MESSAGES:
- Rain and storm chances through the weekend with above average
temperatures.
- A cool-down is most likely heading into next week.
-------------------------------------------------------------------
In the warm sector of the passing low, there is considerable
temperature uncertainty Saturday tied to the low track, and
consequently the degree of warm advection and presence or lack
of cloud cover that keep high temperature forecast ranging
anywhere from the upper 60s to the low-to-mid 80s. A stronger
blocking high, more southern track low would be wetter and
cooler, while a weaker blocking high and more northern track low
would be warmer and drier. This same pattern lingers through
early Sunday.
The most recent guidance has pushed the onset time of the main
cold frontal passage and most likely timing for any severe
potential later into late Sunday into Monday. In addition, there
is some uncertainty as to the development on an upstream low in
the lower Ohio Valley that introduces additional uncertainty in
the rain forecast and severe potential. Though severe chance
may have decreased slightly in the last 24 hours.
By Monday, the forecast is divergent, with some ensembles
showing more rain (or even snow) in a secondary low, and some
showing cooler and drier conditions. Though there is some
suggestion the area is more likely than not to be cooler by the
middle of next week.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Upper trough axis will cross the Upper Ohio Valley region this
morning, with mainly VFR stratocu overspreading the region. FKL
and DUJ will likely see a period of MVFR cigs, and a couple of
snow showers as well, with cold WNW flow off of the Great Lakes
through at least 16Z. The stratocu should clear by late
afternoon/early evening as high pressure builds across the
region.
Gusty wind will increase again after sunrise as the mixed layer
deepens.
Outlook...
VFR is expected Thursday as high pressure tracks across the
region. Rain and restriction potential return Thursday night and
Friday with a warm front. Restrictions and showers are possible
Saturday, before showers and thunderstorms become likely Sunday
with crossing low pressure.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
OH...None.
WV...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...22/Lupo
NEAR TERM...22/Lupo
SHORT TERM...22/Milcarek
LONG TERM...Milcarek
AVIATION...Shallenberger
Source:
PBZ issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Mar 26, 10:46 AM EDT---------------
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