CLE issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Mar 26, 9:12 PM EDT282
FXUS61 KCLE 270112
AFDCLE
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
912 PM EDT Wed Mar 26 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will persist into Thursday. A warm front will
lift north across the area on Friday as a low pressure system
develops in the Central Plains on Saturday. This low pressure
system will move northeast across the Lower Great Lakes on
Sunday, extending a cold front east through the area on Monday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
9:12 PM EDT Update...
Forecast remains valid per latest trends in obs and model
guidance. No changes appeared necessary. Please see discussion
below for details.
Previous Discussion...
Water vapor imagery reveals a persistent upper-level trough
across the Eastern Great Lakes this afternoon, with a large
ridge positioned towards the west across the Western and Central
CONUS. At the surface, high pressure is becoming established
across the Ohio Valley which is gradually signaling an end to
lake effect snow showers and cloudiness across Northeast Ohio
and Northwest Pennsylvania.
High pressure will largely influence much of the weather on
Thursday as it gradually shifts towards the East Coast. A weak
upper-level trough may impact portions of the Eastern Great
Lakes Thursday afternoon and evening, so have gone ahead and
added low chances for light rain showers across Northeast Ohio
and Northwest Pennsylvania, though confidence remains low given
antecedent low-level dry air in place. Above-average
temperatures will return for Thursday with highs in the mid to
upper 50s and perhaps touching 60 degrees across Northwest Ohio.
A warm front will begin to lift north late Thursday night into
Friday, setting the stage for several days of mild weather.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
A surface warm front will be pushing northward from the Ohio Valley
into the Great Lakes during the day on Friday. Rain chances will
increase Friday morning starting in the southwest portion of the CWA
and move northeast throughout the day and start to taper off Friday
evening into the overnight hours. There is the potential for some
thunder with the precipitation as there is a little bit of
instability across the region, though it will decrease after sunset.
There will be a slight break overnight through Saturday morning
after the warm front pushes north. Precipitation chances will
increase from west to east throughout the day on Saturday as a
shortwave moves in ahead of a more potent surface low. Models have
been coming into better agreement of the timing of the precipitation
moving in overnight, but there is still uncertainty regarding the
overall location and potency of the system.
Temperatures will be on the rise in the short term due to the
traversing warm front across the region. Temperatures across the
majority of the CWA will be in the low to mid 60s, with NE OH and NW
PA sticking around the mid 50s. Overnight lows won't follow the
normal diurnal trends and should only drop a couple of degrees, if
any at all, due to warm air advection. Saturday highs will continue
to build off of Friday's and reach into the mid to upper 60s, with
areas in the west and southwest of the CWA possibly touching 70.
Overnight lows for Saturday night will only drop down into the mid
50s across the board.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
The previously mentioned low pressure system will deepen from the
mid-Mississippi Valley and move northeast into the Great Lakes
region Sunday into Monday. There's still quite a bit of uncertainty
regarding the system as a whole, with some models having a slower
track than others and some having a deeper, stronger low as it moves
into the region. Though, the models do have a similar track to each
other as it low should track to our north over the northern Great
Lakes. With all of these factors taken into account, there's still
the potentials for thunderstorms Sunday night into Monday. There
should be decent instability, but given the precipitation from the
previous night and morning and the extent of the cloud coverage on
Sunday, it could be limited.
After the low pressure system exits to the northeast on Monday,
there may be some lingering showers across the eastern half of the
CWA with the potential to switch over to a rain/snow mix overnight
Monday into Tuesday morning. An upper level ridge will build in
behind to end the long term period.
Temperatures on Sunday will continue the trend of the previous days
with highs in the mid to upper 60s, with the southern counties of
the CWA touching 70. Behind the cold front and surface low,
temperatures will fall off by quite a bit with highs on Monday being
in the mid 40s out west to the low 50s in eastern OH and Tuesday
with have highs in the mid 40s. We should start to see a warm up mid
week next week as a the upper level ridge builds in.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z Thursday THROUGH Monday/...
NW'erly flow aloft and embedded disturbances affect our region
through 00Z/Fri. These disturbances will generate variable
amounts of mainly mid/upper-level cloudiness over our region. At
the surface, a ridge continues to impact our region as the core
of the ridge shifts from near Lake Erie and the Mid OH Valley
toward Atlantic waters near Cape Hatteras. Note: Broken cumuli
with bases near 5kft AGL are expected to develop via daytime
warming from about 15Z through 21Z/Thurs and then dissipate
slowly via nocturnal cooling through 00Z/Fri.
Our regional surface winds become light and variable around
sunset this evening before becoming primarily S'erly to SW'erly
around 5 to 10 knots overnight tonight through about 14Z/Thurs.
From about 14Z/Thurs through 00Z/Fri, SW'erly winds around 10
to 15 knots are expected and will gust up to about 20 knots at
times, especially from ~15Z to ~23Z/Thurs.
VFR and mainly fair weather are expected through 00Z/Fri.
However, lingering, isolated, and light lake-effect snow
showers streaming generally ESE'ward over/downwind of central
and eastern Lake Erie are expected to dissipate by 03Z/Thurs.
VFR are also expected with the lake-effect stratocumuli and
snow.
Outlook...Non-VFR expected with periodic rain showers during
the wee hours of Friday morning through this Monday. Periodic
thunderstorms are possible, especially Friday afternoon through
Monday.
&&
.MARINE...
Winds will gradually diminish through the evening and into the
overnight hours across the lake down to less than 10 knots. By
Thursday morning, winds will become predominantly southerly then
westerly in the afternoon at 10 to 15 knots and dropping below 10
knots again for the overnight hours on Thursday into Friday morning.
Winds then will pick up Friday ahead of a warm front becoming
southwesterly at 15 to 25 knots. There will be the potential for a
Small Craft Advisory in the central basin Friday night into Saturday
morning behind the warm front. Flow across the lake will continue to
be southwesterly through Sunday evening/Monday morning when a cold
front will cross the lake and veer the winds to be out of the north
at 15 to 25 knots and last through the day on Monday.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Kahn
NEAR TERM...Jaszka/Kahn
SHORT TERM...23
LONG TERM...23
AVIATION...Jaszka
MARINE...23
Source:
CLE issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Mar 26, 9:12 PM EDT---------------
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