PAH issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Mar 25, 11:18 PM CDT825
FXUS63 KPAH 260418 AAA
AFDPAH
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Paducah KY
1118 PM CDT Tue Mar 25 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Increasingly unsettled weather is forecast Thursday into
Friday, followed by widespread shower and thunderstorm chances
this weekend.
- Thunderstorms will have the potential to become strong to
severe, especially on Sunday. All severe weather hazards
appear possible at this time, including tornadoes, very large
hail, and damaging wind gusts.
- Temperatures will be a couple of degrees cooler Wednesday,
then a significant warming trend is expected Thursday and
Friday. Above normal temperatures will continue through the
weekend, with much cooler conditions early next week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 200 PM CDT Tue Mar 25 2025
A few models are still producing scattered light QPF at times
across across southwest Indiana into tonight, associated with a
weak disturbance to our northeast and our area in northwest
flow. Looking at current surface observations to our northeast
where radar is showing some activity, any precipitation reaching
the ground is very light, and any shower activity has remained
northeast of our area through the day. Air at the surface in
our region will remain very dry, so any stray sprinkle or shower
will be just a trace to maybe a couple of hundredths of an
inch. Will only include some very low PoPs in our far northeast
counties mainly late tonight.
Our region will remain under the influence of northwest flow
Wednesday into Thursday. Surface winds out of the northwest
Wednesday will help keep our area dry Wednesday. By Wednesday
night, models show a surface low over Wyoming/Montana with a
warm front extending southeast toward the lower Mississippi
valley. This warm front will lift northeast late Wednesday night
into Thursday, and the return of southerly flow will bring
increasing low level moisture. Chances of showers will spread
across the PAH forecast area Thursday, with some thunderstorms
possible by Thursday night, possibly lingering into Friday. It
will be breezy Friday with wind gusts of 20 to 30 mph, and
breezy conditions will continue into the weekend.
The surface low will sink into the Central Plains by Friday night,
then begin to push slowly east-northeast over the weekend. Shower
and thunderstorm chances will increase from west to east Friday
night, with numerous showers and storms by Saturday into
Saturday night. On Sunday, the surface low and associated cold
front will move into the middle Mississippi valley, with the low
moving from southwest Missouri into Central Illinois late
Sunday into Sunday night. This current forecast track puts the
PAH forecast area in a prime region for potentially strong to
severe thunderstorms. On Sunday, dew points ahead of the front
will be well into the 50s to near 60 degrees, with potential mid
level lapse rates of 7-8 C/km and MUCAPE 1500-2500 J/kg. Of
course, this is well into the extended forecast and many
variances may occur as we get closer, but this is something to
be watched over the next several days. Showers and storms will
taper off from west to east late Sunday into Monday.
The NBM brings back some low chances of showers late Monday
night into Tuesday. Some of the latest model runs keep our area
dry through this time period due to some differing timing with
a weak upper level wave, but time will tell these PoPs stay in
the forecast.
It will be a couple of degrees cooler Wednesday, then the return
of southerly winds will warm things up for the end of the work
week. Rain and clouds over the weekend will bring temperatures
back down for Saturday, but it will still be above normal. Warm
air advection ahead of the cold front Sunday will push highs
into the middle 70s to around 80 degrees, thus helping with the
instability. Early next week behind the cold front, temperatures
will drop to a few degrees below normal.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1117 PM CDT Tue Mar 25 2025
Light winds overnight will pick up out of the southwest slightly
during the day Wednesday. VFR conditions are forecast for the
duration of the TAF period with only a few high based showers
(3500 ft or higher) around SWIN through early this morning.
&&
.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...RST
AVIATION...JGG
Source:
PAH issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Mar 25, 11:18 PM CDT---------------
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