ILN issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Mar 25, 1:06 PM EDT632
FXUS61 KILN 251706
AFDILN
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
106 PM EDT Tue Mar 25 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
A couple of mid level disturbances will then bring a threat for
precipitation Tuesday into Wednesday. Above normal temperatures will
return late in the week and will continue into the weekend.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Northwest flow aloft with a mid level sheared out vort axis pivoting
thru the Ohio Valley today. This shortwave has led to and area of
light rain along and south of the Ohio River. As the wave shifts off
to the southeast the band of rain will diminish in coverage as it
shifts southeast early this aftn.
For much of the area, dry conditions and mostly cloudy skies are
expected thru the day. After a brief break during the early afternoon,
another weak shortwave moves in from the northwest. Expect scattered shower
activity with this feature as forecast soundings show very marginal
instability. Similar to this morning, the chances for the showers is
focused across southeast Indiana, far southwest Ohio, and northern
Kentucky.
High temperatures to range from near 50 across the south - where
rain will occur and clouds will be thickest, to the lower and middle
50s elsewhere.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
Tuesday evening into Tuesday night is mostly dry across the local
area with another shortwave producing scattered showers into southern
Indiana and western Kentucky into the morning hours. Isolated PoPs to
the far southwest portions of the area with the weak disturbance
eventually lifting northeast by mid-morning.
Otherwise, expect another seasonably cool day with scattered cumulus
during the afternoon.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Northwest flow will continue with additional disturbances moving
through the flow, particularly Thursday and Thursday night before
short wave length ridging pushes into the region on Friday. At the
surface, high pressure will be over the area to start the period and
then move off to the east on Thursday. A developing warm front will
lift across the region on Thursday night putting the entire area in a
warm sector by Friday. So for sensible weather, this will lead to
dry conditions Wednesday night into Thursday. But then showers may
develop into the Tri-State late in the day. There will be a better
chance of showers Thursday night. These showers should move out of
the area during the day Friday.
A short wave will weaken as it lifts out of the lower Mississippi
Valley into the upper Ohio Valley over the weekend. This will be
followed by a stronger system tracking out of the central Plains
heading east across the region late Sunday night into Monday. This
second system will push a cold front across the area. The Gulf will
be wide open allowing for plentiful moisture to stream northwards. In
addition, temperatures will rise well above normal. Instability will
develop into the region on Sunday, although to what degree and how
far north remain in question. Broadly speaking, there are ingredients
that could lead to severe weather, but there are plenty of
uncertainties on whether these will be of sufficient magnitude or
whether they will come into alignment. Convection has a way of
altering the environment in unexpected ways even in the short term,
so do get into details this far out in time would be foolhardy. At
this point, it is just something to keep an eye on.
Once the front goes through, it will be cooler and perhaps a bit
breezy on Monday along with some lingering showers in the cold air
advection.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR conditions expected through the TAF period. A couple of weak mid
level disturbances will pass south of the TAF sites. Most of the
shower activity will stay south of the TAF/s, with the the exception
being KCVG/KLUK where it appears the northern extent of the rain will
reach thru about sunset. For the rest of area TAFs, KDAY/KILN have a
very low chance for a rain shower, but potential remains quite low.
Mid level ceilings will drop to 4000-6000 feet with the next
disturbance this afternoon into early evening and then lift or
scattered out later this evening. After a period of mainly mid and
high level clouds overnight - expect clouds around 5000 feet
Wednesday afternoon.
West-northwest winds around 10 kts today area expected to be less
than 10 kts this evening and then again northwest around 10 kts
Wednesday.
OUTLOOK...MVFR conditions possible Thursday night into Saturday.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Hickman
NEAR TERM...AR
SHORT TERM...McGinnis
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...AR
Source:
ILN issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Mar 25, 1:06 PM EDT---------------
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