JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Mar 25, 6:05 AM EDT383
FXUS63 KJKL 251005
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
605 AM EDT Tue Mar 25 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- A series of waves will cross the area into Wednesday with
successive rounds of showers - mainly affecting northeast parts
of the state - but with generally a third of an inch or less of
total rainfall.
- Near-normal temperatures are expected for much of the work week,
but a significant warming trend is expected by next weekend.
- A strong low pressure system is expected travel northeastward
and pass nearby or to our northwest late in the weekend,
bringing our next significant round of showers and possibly
thunderstorms.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 450 AM EDT TUE MAR 25 2025
08Z sfc analysis shows a weak area of high pressure over eastern
Kentucky while a compact low is moving into southwestern parts of
the state. This low, and an impulse aloft, is pushing showers into
the JKL CWA from the west this morning, but these are encountering
a very dry lower atmosphere and will have a tough time making it
to the sfc for another couple of hours. Specifically, dewpoints
vary from the lower 30s west to the mid and upper teens east.
Meanwhile, amid mainly light and variable winds, temperatures are
ranging from the mid 40s in the open areas and on ridges to the
upper 30s in some of the sheltered valleys. Accompanying the virga
and attempts at light showers, are clouds moving into the rest
of the area from the west early this morning - likely ending the
radiational cooling.
The models, and their individual ensemble suites, seem to have
come into even better agreement aloft through the short term
portion of the forecast. They all depict a resident 5h trough
holding court over the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley. While the
larger upper low is slow to move off to the east during this
time, several mid level waves will work through Kentucky in quick
succession with each one able to have at least a small impact on
sensible weather. The first of these is in the process of punching
into the area on northwest flow and will move past by early
afternoon. Some slight height falls and more energy streams by
above eastern Kentucky in the wake of the first of these waves.
Then later tonight, another stronger impulse arrives and works by
overhead into Wednesday morning continuing to suppress heights and
maintain a stream of trailing mid level energy for our part of
the state into evening. The now quite small model spread aloft
supported using the NBM as the starting point for the forecast
grids through the period. Did make some adjustments to incorporate
more CAMs guidance into the PoPs through the period and also to
further enhance the temperature striation from northeast to
southwest through the area today.
Sensible weather features several shots at showers through mid
week - with the sfc waves favoring the northern parts of the area.
Today's will likely support a tight gradient in temperatures from
northeast (colder) to southwest (warmer) based mainly on the
compact sfc low's track through southeast Kentucky this morning
and the rain/lowest clouds favoring its northern quadrants. As
this low strengthens to the east of the state northwesterly winds
will hold in the colder air for our northeast while lingering
light showers there into the evening. After a lull in activity
tonight, amid variable cloudiness, the next upper wave will help
to generate more showers for Wednesday from midday on into the
afternoon before clearing out west to east by that evening. During
the next couple of days the trough to the north aloft and plenty
of clouds will keep much of the area on the cool side of normal
for daytime temperatures. For lows tonight, some pockets of
clearing may be enough for localized colder conditions but
readings will mainly be in the mid to upper 30s with limited
frost potential. The breeziest winds will occur this afternoon in
the southern parts of the area - 10 to 15 mph from the northwest
with higher gusts - as that sfc low pulls away due to its pressure
gradient and also better mixing away from the lower clouds and
pcpn to the northeast. The total rainfall from these showers
through Wednesday night still looks to be below a half an inch
for the places that need it the most in our far east - but every
bit helps.
The changes to the NBM starting point consisted primarily of
cooling the temperatures northeast and warming them a notch in
the southwest today. As for PoPs, mainly tweaked them per timing
and coverage details from the CAMs through the period.
.LONG TERM...(After midnight Wednesday night through Monday)
Issued at 604 AM EDT Tue Mar 25 2025
After a chilly Wednesday night, the long term forecast period will
be defined by a warmer and wetter weather pattern. The longwave
troughing that dominated the mid/upper levels for the first half of
the work week is expected to propagate east on Thursday, and ridging
looks to build into the region in its wake. The resultant height
rises favor a noticeable warming trend through the weekend, but
before then, the overhead positioning of a surface high pressure
system will yield efficient radiational cooling. Under clear skies,
Wednesday night's lows will dip below freezing in the valleys and
into the mid 30s atop ridges. Combined with the antecedent near-
surface moisture from early-week precipitation, this sets the stage
for widespread frost formation on Thursday morning. Frost appears
most likely and more widespread in valley locations, but patches of
it cannot be ruled out atop ridges, especially if surfaces are still
wet before sunset. Agricultural interests should continue to monitor
this frost potential closely, but temperatures should quickly rise
back above freezing by midday Thursday.
The daytime hours on Thursday look clear and dry, with afternoon
highs in the low to mid 60s. On Thursday night, however, a warm
front is expected to push northeast across the forecast area. The
associated atmospheric moisture return and frontal forcing will
return shower chances to the forecast, and the increasingly cloudy
skies will insulate overnight lows. Some of these showers may
produce thunder as warm air advection kicks in on Friday morning,
but the coverage and intensity of this activity looks rather
limited. Friday's mild start favors afternoon highs in the 70s. If
skies can clear behind the warm front, some locations could approach
80. Thus, Eastern Kentucky will be positioned firmly within the warm
sector of a developing wave cyclone in the Great Plains by next
weekend.
Models continue to disagree on the timing and track of the features
that will govern the specifics of this weekend's forecast, but a
prolonged period of midlevel moisture return and surface warm air
advection will maintain the aforementioned warm sector through
Sunday. Confidence is high that temperatures on Saturday and Sunday
will reach the mid/upper 70s, which is well-above climatological
average for late March in eastern Kentucky. Confidence is less high
in the exact timing of potential shower and thunderstorm activity,
but multiple rounds appear possible this weekend. The greatest
signal for stronger convection falls on Sunday evening, when a
developing low pressure system and its trailing cold frontal
boundary could provide enough wind shear and forcing for organized
convection. The Storm Prediction Center continues to highlight a
broad area of thunderstorm potential on Sunday, but this is not a
slam-dunk severe weather forecast for Eastern Kentucky. In similar
set-ups, downsloping surface flow and convective cloud debris from
upstream activity have cut into the amount of surface-based
instability that is actually realized in our forecast area. The
latest joint probabilistic LREF output suggests that the greatest
overlap between the most favorable instability and shear parameters
will fall west of I-75 on Sunday, with decreasing probabilties as
the system moves east after sunset. The highest joint shear/CAPE
probabilities are resolved further to the west/south in the Lower
Mississippi and Tennessee River Valleys. Both the analog-based CIPS
guidance and the available machine learning guidance resolve a
relatively higher risk there. This gives credence to the idea that
mesoscale features like convective blowoff could limit Sunday's
severe weather potential in our forecast area. We will continue to
closely monitor the evolution of this set up as the latest forecast
guidance becomes available, but there is simply too much uncertainty
to discuss specific details regarding hazard types and convective
mode at this moment in time. Stay tuned...
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
ISSUED AT 155 AM EDT TUE MAR 25 2025
While clouds will be thickening and lowering, VFR conditions
should prevail through 12Z for all sites. Shower chances rise
into the pre-dawn hours, though, primarily over the northern half
of the forecast area. As the column moistens, MVFR ceilings are
expected to develop near/north of a KJKL to KPBX line after 12Z -
possibly dipping to IFR for a time. Shower coverage should be
significantly less and ceilings generally higher further to the
southwest. After this wave passes, look for slow improvement in
flight conditions into the evening. Winds will be light and
variable across the area through midday. They will pick up from
the northwest for the SME and LOZ sites at generally 5 to 10 kts
with gusts up to 20 kts for the afternoon. The rest of the area
will continue to see mostly light and variable winds under
thicker and lower clouds.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...MARCUS
AVIATION...GEERTSON/GREIF
Source:
JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Mar 25, 6:05 AM EDT---------------
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