JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Mar 24, 7:45 PM EDT548
FXUS63 KJKL 242345
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
745 PM EDT Mon Mar 24 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- A series of sfc waves crosses the area tonight into Wednesday
with successive rounds of showers - mainly affecting northeast
parts of the state - but with generally a third of an inch or
less of total rainfall.
- Near-normal temperatures are expected for much of the work week,
but a significant warming trend is expected by next weekend.
- A strong low pressure system is expected travel northeastward
and pass nearby or to our northwest late in the weekend,
bringing our next significant round of showers and possibly
thunderstorms.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 745 PM EDT MON MAR 24 2025
No significant changes were needed on this forecast update. Dew
points were the primary variable subject to minor changes as they
have been running a bit drier than forecast this evening -- as
low as the teens on the drier ridgetops north of the Hal Rogers
Parkway/Kentucky 80 corridor. The gusty breeze should subside
rather quickly with the lost of diurnal heating.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday night)
Issued at 428 PM EDT MON MAR 24 2025
Late this afternoon, an upper level low was centered to the north
and northeast of Lake Huron with a trough axis south across
portions of the Great Lakes to the OH and TN Valley to the
Southeast and the Gulf. An upper level ridge was in place to the
east of this trough over portions of the western Atlantic and the
Great Lakes while another ridge extended from parts of the
eastern Pacific into portions of the southwestern and western
Conus. Multiple shortwaves/disturbances were moving around this
ridge over the western Conus and into the trough. At the surface,
an ridge of high pressure extended form parts of the Southern
Plains into the Lower OH and TN Valley regions. Recent SPC
Mesoanalysis has 20 to 25KT winds at 850 mb nearer to the TN
border and 25 to 35KT in locations further to the north while 700
mb winds were analyzed between 30 and 40KT. JKL VWP has 20KT winds
up to 7kft msl with 25 to 30KT between 8kft and 10kft agl. With
rather deep daytime mixing, some of these gusts between 20 and
30KT and locally stronger or between 25 and 35 mph were occurring.
The sfc ridge of high pressure will build across central and into
easter KY this evening while winds and this combined with loss of
daytime heating this evening will lead to winds slackening toward
sunset. As the high moves across the area during the evening to
start of the overnight, low and mid level clouds are not expected
and eastern valley locations should decouple and likely cool off
into the 30s by around or shortly after midnight. Temperatures in
these areas should increase toward dawn. This will occur with the
arrival of mid and low clouds ahead of the first of these
shortwaves/disturbances moving to the mid MS Valley by the start
of the overnight hours and then it nears the OH Valley region
later tonight, before crossing eastern KY on Tuesday. This
shortwave departs to the east by Tuesday evening, but another
shortwave approaches from the northwest on Tuesday night.
Meanwhile, the previously mentioned sfc ridge of high pressure
will shift east and southeast of the Commonwealth overnight,
settling across the Carolinas to VA by dawn on Tuesday. At the
same time, the sfc wave associated with the first shortwave should
track from parts of the Central Plains to the Lower OH Valley
region by dawn on Tuesday and then tracking across the
Commonwealth including eastern KY and across the Southern
Appalachians during the day on Tuesday. The surface frontal zone
should sag south of the Commonwealth by late Tuesday into Tuesday
night, though additional clouds and some chances for showers
linger Tuesday night with the departing shortwave and the approach
of the next.
A modest increase in moisture is expected with the shortwave and
surface system especially across the northeastern half to two
thirds of the forecast area with PW per the 12Z HREF climbing to
the 0.5 to 0.6 inch range from current levels in the 0.25 to 0.4
inch range. Moisture will begin to diminish in magnitude during
the afternoon to early evening as the sfc low tracks across the
southern part of the area and the associated shortwave passes. The
better combination of moisture and lift is expected to be north
of the sfc low track while locations nearer to the TN border
should experience lesser coverage of showers and QPF. Showers
should arrive toward or just after dawn for areas near and north
of the Mtn Pkwy and then spread across northern and eastern
sections of the area during the morning to afternoon hours. Winds
will have an upslope component at least at times for Tuesday night
and with moisture lingering below about 700 mb, additional
showers are possible. The BL will cool with surface temperatures
dropping into the 30s. However, dewpoints should also remain
generally above freezing and wetbulb temperatures and warm layer
depth sufficiently warm enough for whatever may fall late Tuesday
night to be all rain.
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 454 PM EDT MON MAR 24 2025
A progressive longwave trough will be moving east across the
eastern CONUS on Wednesday. Under northwest flow aloft on the
back side of the trough, a disturbance/jet streak should be
translating through the trough over our area before the regime
shifts to our east. This could bring scattered showers to much of
the area during the day. Once this is gone, we can expect a brief
spell of dry weather from Wednesday night at least through the day
Thursday.
Late in the week, a major storm system will eventually take shape
over the middle of the CONUS and move northeast. However, the
details are still very uncertain. The GFS has a significant
shortwave trough heading from TX over the Ohio Valley from Friday
through Saturday while significant warm/moist advection off the
gulf occurs as far east as KY. This results in a possibility of
showers. Meanwhile, the ECMWF is weaker with the shortwave and
slower with the return of moisture/precip. A blended solution
dampens out the GFS solution and yields slight chance to chance
POP for our area Thursday night through Saturday.
Both the ECMWF and GFS have the most significant weather late in
the weekend, but there are still disagreements on the details. A
deep low, or couple of lows, are expected to track by to our
northwest. Ample moisture drawn into the system should result in
showers and possibly thunderstorms for us, with the most
favorable time being Sunday night (give or take a bit). With
strong wind fields expected, severe wx is a concern. In the end,
the degree of downsloping and amount of instability will need to
be considered, but it is much too far down the road to delve into
anything more than a broadbrushed approach.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
ISSUED AT 745 PM EDT MON MAR 24 2025
Gusty winds will quickly subside this evening with the loss of
daytime heating. Otherwise, VFR conditions should prevail through
12Z, though clouds will thicken and lower overnight with an
approaching disturbance. Shower chances rise late in the night,
especially over the northern half of the forecast area. As the
column moistens, MVFR ceilings are expected to develop near/north
of a KJKL to KPBX line after 12z and could dip to IFR at times.
Shower coverage should be significantly less and ceilings
generally higher further south. Slow improvement in flight
conditions can be expected by Tuesday evening.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GEERTSON
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...HAL
AVIATION...GEERTSON/JP
Source:
JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Mar 24, 7:45 PM EDT---------------
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