LIX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Mar 22, 11:35 PM CDT ...NEW AVIATION...111
FXUS64 KLIX 230435 AAB
AFDLIX
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
1135 PM CDT Sat Mar 22 2025
...NEW AVIATION...
.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 320 PM CDT Sat Mar 22 2025
Aloft, zonal flow across the northern Gulf Coast this afternoon,
with troughing moving through the Rockies into the Northern
Plains. High pressure extended from Minnesota to the eastern Gulf.
Mostly clear skies were across the area with temperatures
generally in the 70s and dew points in the 40s to lower 50s. Lake
and sea breezes had developed, which has bumped up dew points on
the Mississippi coast a bit.
As the main portion of the upper trough shifts eastward into the
Great Lakes by Sunday night, the associated cold front will
gradually be forced southward toward the area, possibly nearing
Interstate 12 by sunrise Monday. A southern stream shortwave will
move out of Texas toward the Louisiana coast by Monday morning and
east of the area by Monday evening.
Moisture remained fairly limited this afternoon, around one half
inch, but as the surface high continues eastward, southerly winds
will start to modify those levels. It will take till late
afternoon Sunday to even get to around 1 inch. While there will be
enough moisture to bring cloudier conditions during the day on
Sunday, precipitation is going to be slow to develop. Won't
totally rule out a few showers northwest of McComb and Baton Rouge
prior to sunset Sunday.
The threat for showers and thunderstorms will increase, primarily
after midnight Sunday night as the southern stream shortwave
approaches. Precipitable water values will increase to around 1.3
inches and mid-level lapse rates will increase to about 8C/km,
with about 1000 J/kg available. 500 mb temperatures are likely to
be approximately in the -16 to -20C range, which would be
favorable for hail. So a few storms late Sunday night could be
strong to severe across northern portions of the area close to the
front.
Thermodynamically, the airmass is actually more favorable for
strong to severe storms during the day on Monday, especially in
the morning, as heating allows for more destabilization, but the
best lift and shear will be pulling away from the area as the
southern stream shortwave will be east of the area. As the front
continues to drift south, or even become stationary, this should
shift the focus of any stronger storms further south. Just about
all portions of the area should see at least some precipitation
during the 12 hour period from midnight Sunday night to noon
Monday. Widespread rain amounts between one half inch and one inch
are likely, although a few spots could see upwards of 2 inches if
they receive repeat storms. If those few spots are over urban
areas, that could produce brief street flooding issues.
Temperature-wise, chilly temperatures have departed, at least for
now. Highs well into the 70s are expected for Sunday and Monday,
and wouldn't be surprised to see one or two spots reach 80 on
Monday if drier air arrives soon enough in the afternoon.
Overnight lows will be in the 50s for much of the area tonight and
probably 60 to 65 tomorrow night.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through Friday night)
Issued at 320 PM CDT Sat Mar 22 2025
The main question for the workweek beyond Monday is with the
location of the dying frontal boundary. The ECMWF has been pretty
consistent in taking the front offshore, while the GFS washes it
out across the area at mid-week. The GFS solution has trended a
bit drier in the last run or two, so confidence in most areas
remaining dry from Tuesday into Friday has increased. There is
some question as to whether a southern stream trough will affect
the local area next weekend (ECMWF), or slide northwest of the
area (GFS). We'll have time to resolve those differences, and for
now, will stick with the NBM, which is low end mention of
precipitation on Saturday.
One thing that can be said with confidence is that next week will
be warm. High temperatures will be well above normal, especially
for Tuesday and Wednesday, when high temperatures could be 10
degrees or more above normal. High temperatures both days could be
in the mid 80s across most of the area, and we may need to bump
the current forecast up a degree or two. That trend could continue
through the end of the work week. Overnight lows are also likely
to be above normal in the 50s and 60s. Longer term, the current
GFS and ECMWF operational solutions show no indications of any
cold air masses returning to the area through the first week of
April.
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1135 PM CDT Sat Mar 22 2025
MVFR to borderline IFR conditions tonight for the northwest
terminals...BTR, MCB, and HDC as CIGs drop toward sunrise.
Going into late Sunday clouds will continue to thicken across the
region and will lower toward the end of the cycle. Went with a
PROB for rain chances at MCB at the end of the forecast period.
Otherwise, surface winds will increase during the day on Sunday
with some gusts approaching 25 knots in some cases. (Frye)
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 320 PM CDT Sat Mar 22 2025
Any significant impacts during the marine forecast period would be
limited to perhaps very borderline Small Craft Exercise Caution
conditions over the western waters later tonight and Sunday, and
the potential for storms late Sunday night and Monday. Winds could
briefly reach 15 knots over the western waters late this evening
into Sunday evening, but not much more than that. With the area
impacted expected to be rather limited and not high confidence,
will not carry headlines at this time. With a dying frontal
boundary expected to be in the area beyond that point, any
pressure gradient is expected to be rather weak, keeping winds in
the 10 knot range. Winds and seas may increase a bit at the end of
next week as the next system approaches.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB 78 53 79 61 / 0 0 20 80
BTR 79 58 80 64 / 0 0 10 70
ASD 79 56 79 64 / 0 0 0 50
MSY 77 60 78 65 / 0 0 0 50
GPT 74 58 74 63 / 0 0 0 50
PQL 76 53 77 61 / 0 0 0 40
&&
.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
GM...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...RW
LONG TERM....RW
AVIATION...RDF
MARINE...RW
Source:
LIX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Mar 22, 11:35 PM CDT ...NEW AVIATION...---------------
If I'm using your data in a way that is against your terms please email the team at "threatweb@pupswoof117.com"! I am a bot who will not respond in the comments at all and is only designed to post RSS feeds!
