MOB issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Mar 21, 3:03 AM CDT ...New Discussion, Marine...347
FXUS64 KMOB 210803
AFDMOB
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
303 AM CDT Fri Mar 21 2025
...New Discussion, Marine...
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 139 AM CDT Fri Mar 21 2025
Today through Saturday Night...
High pressure centered over the deep south today, slips southeast
across the eastern Gulf and across the FL Peninsula to open up the
weekend. No rain the next couple days. It will primarily
be a temperature forecast. Despite sunny skies, highs today in
the mid to upper 60's will be several degrees below normal.
Saturday's numbers though, lifting up into the lower to mid 70's,
will trend a few degrees warmer than normal. Overnight lows will
be coolest tonight over the interior at 39 to 44 while 45 to 50
closer to the coast. Saturday night, 45 to 50 interior to mid 50's
coast.
Rip current risk is low Friday through Saturday. /10
Sunday through Thursday Night...
The period beings with active weather associated with upper
troughing digging across the eastern CONUS. Overall trends in
guidance for Sunday into Monday suggest a majority of more
appreciable forcing will remain north of the forecast area and
likewise much of the area struggles to recover appreciable
moisture and low level theta-e to generate anything more than
500j/kg of MLCAPE Sunday night into Monday morning ahead of
convection. By the time better forcing is vacating the region,
more appreciable lapse rates and theta-e attempt to enter the area
ahead of the weakening cold front and MLCAPE values approaching
500 to 1,000j/kg move in Monday morning. Most forecast guidance
suggests the front will be slow to move through the area allowing
for perhaps a low end threat for stronger storms east of the I-65
corridor Monday morning into early afternoon as subtle disturbances
aloft move across the base of the upper trough. Deep layer shear
remains around 50 knots and is mostly unidirectional by this point
so any more robust storms would carry a small hail or strong wind
threat. Overall anticipation is for scattered to locally numerous
showers and storms to move into the region prior to daybreak,
lingering into the late morning and early afternoon hours east of
I-65.
Temperatures Sunday warm into the middle to upper 70's for most
locations, with a few lower 80's over the interior. Sunday night
will be warm given extensive cloud cover and warm advection
ongoing ahead of the front. Forecast lows Sunday night fall into
the middle to upper 50's over the interior and lower 60's across
southeastern Mississippi into far southwestern Alabama. It's
possible these lows may need adjusted up somewhat as higher
resolution guidance comes in range across southwestern portions of
the forecast area. Monday will be a tad cooler given cloud cover
and rain, with highs topping out in the lower to middle 70's,
warmest nearer the coast.
Once we get past this system the rest of the extended period is
rather quiet with dry weather and warm temperatures prevailing.
Highs each day Monday through Thursday will top out in the upper
70's to lower 80's, with overnight lows generally falling into the
upper 40's and lower 50's over the interior each night and lower
to middle 50's nearer the coast each night. A low risk of rip
currents continues through the end of the week. MM/25
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1212 AM CDT Fri Mar 21 2025
VFR conditions next 24 hrs. Winds light, becoming south in the
afternoon. /10
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 139 AM CDT Fri Mar 21 2025
A cold front settles southeast and approaches the central Gulf
coast Monday morning. Ahead of the front, chances of showers
increase late Sunday night. Showers become likely Monday morning
with a few thunderstorms mixed in. Winds, waves and seas will be
locally higher in and near storms. Outside of the Sunday night and
Monday weather event, no impactful marine weather anticipated. /10
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile 67 45 76 53 75 59 73 49 / 0 0 0 0 0 60 50 10
Pensacola 63 47 71 56 71 62 73 53 / 0 0 0 0 0 40 60 10
Destin 62 49 70 56 71 62 73 56 / 0 0 0 0 0 30 70 10
Evergreen 68 40 77 46 78 54 74 44 / 0 0 0 0 0 70 60 10
Waynesboro 68 39 77 48 79 57 73 44 / 0 0 0 0 0 80 40 10
Camden 66 41 74 47 79 56 70 44 / 0 0 0 0 0 80 40 10
Crestview 68 37 76 44 76 55 75 46 / 0 0 0 0 0 40 70 10
&&
.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...Frost Advisory until 8 AM CDT this morning for ALZ051>060-
261>264.
FL...Frost Advisory until 8 AM CDT this morning for FLZ201-203-205.
MS...Frost Advisory until 8 AM CDT this morning for MSZ067-075-076-
078-079.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM CDT early this morning for
GMZ650-655-670-675.
&&
$$
This product is also available on the web at:
www.weather.gov/mob
Source:
MOB issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Mar 21, 3:03 AM CDT ...New Discussion, Marine...---------------
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