ILN issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Mar 22, 2:26 PM EDT298
FXUS61 KILN 221826
AFDILN
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
226 PM EDT Sat Mar 22 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
A weak cold front will cross the area today, with high pressure
briefly building in tonight. Another cold front will follow, moving
through Sunday afternoon and evening.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A weak surface cold front will pass through the region today.
Temperatures will only be slightly cooler than yesterday, mainly
across the northern half of the forecast area. There will be a good
deal of clouds to start, but those will decrease in the Tri-State by
early afternoon with a clearing trend expected over the rest of the
area through the remainder of the day. Highs will range from the mid
40s north to the mid/upper 50s south. It will be a bit breezy with
the wind occasionally gusting between 25 and 30 mph.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
High pressure will pass across the area tonight. High clouds will
already be increasing in advance of the next short wave which will
move into the area on Sunday. A more defined cold front will track
into the forecast area during Sunday afternoon. Good moisture
transport in advance of this combined with the forcing will cause
widespread showers to develop through the day. Swath of somewhat
higher rainfall will be across the southern counties but at this
stage it looks like that would be under one inch.
Temperatures will be able to drop off into the mid 20s in central
Ohio outside of the urban areas with lows in the upper 20s to lower
30s elsewhere. Highs will range from the upper 40s to upper 50s.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A cold front will be in the process of moving through the area
Sunday night with any lingering rainfall occurring across portions of
northern Kentucky, central and southern Ohio. Drier air behind the
front pushes the deeper moisture eastward, leaving behind a few
remnant showers across the far north Monday afternoon. Surface low
pressure is to the north, maintaining the northwesterly surface flow
and cooler conditions.
With the mid and upper level flow remaining northwesterly, weak
disturbances moving through the base of the trough supply scattered
rain chances Tuesday. Temperatures are once again near to slightly
below normal. Rainfall chances are highest across southeast Indiana,
southwest Ohio, and northern Kentucky Tuesday.
Despite the primary shortwave trough shifting northeast of the
region by midweek, the longwave trough remains through early Friday.
500mb height rises and southwesterly surface flow due support warmer
temperatures on Thursday, but clouds and mentions for showers persist
due to another disturbance descending into the region.
A slow moving trough moves eastward through the central Plains on
Friday, promoting stronger southerly flow and warmer conditions.
Friday will likely be the next chance for seeing 70s across a portion
of the area. Even with the warmer conditions, rainfall chances
continue in the forecast with higher chances arriving late Friday and
into the first half of the weekend.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Gusty west to northwest winds (sustained around 15 knots with gusts
around 25 knots) will continue into the early evening, but should
decrease/diminish after 23Z. During this period, SCT-BKN
cumulus/stratocumulus will decrease in coverage as drier air moves in
from the west.
For tonight, a surface high pressure ridge will quickly traverse
east across our region. Winds will diminish and veer with time,
eventually coming from an east/southeast direction. Mid and high
level clouds will increase and thicken from the west ahead of the
next weather system.
On Sunday, strong s/wv energy digging through the base of a
deepening low pressure system over the northern Mississippi River
Valley and western Great Lakes will provide dynamic energy in the
form of a leading strong low level moist jet. This process will
initially spread showers northeast into the region at first on the
WAA wing of the system. As the associated cold front approaches from
the west during the afternoon, more widespread showers will move into
the region. VFR conditions will lower with MVFR ceilings ranging
between 1000 and 2000 feet with some pockets of IFR ceilings
developing. Visibilities will eventually drop into the MVFR range due
to moderate to locally heavy rain with some pockets of IFR
visibilities possible. Winds will increase from the south between 15
and 20 knots with gusts around 25 knots. There is a chance of some
LLWS developing late just out ahead and along the cold front. Will
take another look at this with the next TAF package. There is also a
low chance for some thunderstorms near the Tri-State region late
(some elevated instability), but this possibility is too low to
mention in the terminals at this time.
OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR ceilings and MVFR visibilities expected Sunday
evening, along with the possibility for LLWS. VFR conditions will
return overnight. Wind gusts to 40 knots are possible Monday,
particularly in the afternoon. MVFR conditions possible Tuesday into
Tuesday night.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Hickman
NEAR TERM...Hickman
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...McGinnis
AVIATION...Hickman
Source:
ILN issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Mar 22, 2:26 PM EDT---------------
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