CLE issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Mar 22, 7:26 PM EDT150
FXUS61 KCLE 222326
AFDCLE
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
726 PM EDT Sat Mar 22 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure briefly returns tonight into early Sunday before
low pressure tracks across the northern Great Lakes and sweeps a
cold front across the local area Sunday night. High pressure
briefly builds in Monday night into Tuesday morning before a
weak low moves across the region Tuesday afternoon through
Wednesday morning.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Cloudy conditions with isolated snow showers are observed right
now, though this should clear up quickly this evening as high
pressure builds in tonight, with clear skies expected nearly
areawide by midnight.
High pressure and its effects will be rather short-lived though
as it departs to the east Sunday morning and an upper-level
trough and associated surface low approach from the west. This
will result in about 5-8 hours of near continuous rain (mostly
light with periods of moderate rain) starting Sunday afternoon
out west (Northwest Ohio) or during the evening closer to sunset
out east (Northeast Ohio into Northwest Pennsylvania) with
about 0.25" total QPF. A few isolated rain showers could linger
into Sunday night. Temperatures will be near normal.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Low pressure will track east from the northern Great Lakes Monday
morning to near the Quebec/Ontario border by Monday evening while
gradually filling/weakening. The main cold front will be to our east
by Monday morning, though a trailing trough axis will push across
the area through the day Monday. The amount of lingering moisture is
questionable though do maintain 20-30% POPs for showers on Monday,
especially from Northeast OH into Northwest PA. Highs Monday are
expected to range from the mid to upper 40s across Northwest OH and
Northwest PA to near or a bit better than 50 elsewhere. With some
ongoing cold advection diurnal temperature rises will be modest. It
will be breezy to windy on Monday with forecast wind gusts ranging
from 30-35 MPH east of I-77 to 35-40 MPH to the west, with some
potential to mix into enough wind aloft to bring down some 45 MPH
gusts across the western half of the area. A marginal Wind Advisory
is not impossible for parts of the area west of I-77 on Monday,
though the weakening nature of the low may argue against that need.
Weak high pressure slides through Monday night into Tuesday, before
the next shortwave and weak surface reflection zip east-southeast
out of the Upper Midwest and across the northern Ohio Valley Tuesday
night. We will be mainly dry Monday night and Tuesday, though
lingering chilly west-northwest flow and broad troughing aloft could
maintain a few rain/snow showers from Northeast OH into Northwest
PA. Have chance POPs for rain or rain/snow showers Tuesday night
with the next feature, though this looks like a small/fast-moving
system with some disagreement on where any precip with it will
track...so future adjustments are likely. Lows Monday night will
range from the upper 20s to mid 30s. Highs on Tuesday will generally
be in the 40s, with our southwest perhaps reaching the lower 50s.
Lows Tuesday night will be slightly milder in the 30s.&&
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A warming trend is expected for the long term as initial longwave
troughing over the Northeast departs to the east, allowing heights
to rise ahead of low pressure and a trough over the central U.S.
There are some various low rain chances Thursday and Friday with a
baroclinic zone/warm front setting up across the region and then
lifting north, though we should be beneath confluent flow aloft
until later Friday or Friday night so POPs are fairly modest.
Greater rain potential arrives from the west Friday night into
Saturday, though how quickly that happens is uncertain.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z Saturday THROUGH Thursday/...
Lingering MVFR ceilings across Northeast Ohio and Northwest
Pennsylvania are continuing to lift to VFR as high pressure
builds overhead. VFR conditions should persist across terminals
through the majority of the TAF period. Low pressure approaches
from the southwest Sunday afternoon and evening, bringing
widespread light to moderate rain showers to western terminals
around 19-20Z/Sun. This should drop cigs and vis down to MVFR by
the end of the TAF period as the showers move east.
As the high builds over the region, winds will become light and
variable overnight. Ahead of the surface low, southeast winds
increase Sunday afternoon to 15 knots with gusts to 25 knots.
Western terminals may see a window with gusts in excess of 30
knots late Sunday afternoon/early evening.
Outlook...Non-VFR may continue into Monday and Monday night
with cloud cover and scattered rain/snow showers.
&&
.MARINE...
Northwest flow quickly on the decrease this evening as high pressure
builds in from the west. Small Craft Advisories have expired or will
expire from west to east through the evening. Waves currently range
from 1-3 feet west of Avon Point to 3-6 feet to the east and will
come down fairly steadily as winds subside.
The next period of unsettled marine conditions is expected Sunday
evening through Monday night. Fresh south-southeast winds of 15-25kt
are expected Sunday evening as strong flow ahead of low pressure
moving into the upper Great Lakes moves across Lake Erie. These
winds will build 3 to 5 foot waves in the open waters Sunday
evening. Winds veer southwesterly overnight Sunday night and
increase to 20-30kt behind a cold front. Winds remain southwest at
20-30kt into Monday, veering more westerly Monday afternoon as a
secondary trough axis pushes southeast across the lake. Winds are
expected to subside below 20kt by Tuesday morning. Waves will build
to at least 6-10 feet east of the Islands late Sunday night through
much of Monday night, with 3-6 feet in the western basin. Water
levels will likely dip across the west end Sunday night into Monday
and could fall below the critical mark for safe navigation.
Impression is that we may need Small Craft Advisories as early as
Sunday evening for the initial brisk southeast winds. If we don't
need them then, we will need prolonged and rather high-end
advisories from overnight Sunday night through Monday night or early
Tuesday. Flow aloft is close to supporting a gale at times early
Monday morning through Monday evening, though confidence in it
occurring is below 50/50, so am not hoisting a Gale Watch at this
point. The low pressure responsible for the unsettled conditions
will be gradually weakening Monday and Monday night, which is an
argument against a potential gale on the lake along with somewhat
questionable mixing depths over the still-chilly lake waters.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for
LEZ147>149.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Saunders
NEAR TERM...Saunders
SHORT TERM...Sullivan
LONG TERM...Sullivan
AVIATION...13
MARINE...Sullivan
Source:
CLE issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Mar 22, 7:26 PM EDT---------------
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