ILN issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Mar 21, 9:07 PM EDT704
FXUS61 KILN 220107
AFDILN
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
907 PM EDT Fri Mar 21 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
An upper level trough will approach from the west tonight. A surface
cold front will cross southeast starting with the predawn hours on
Saturday and exiting the region by late morning. The cold front will
produce a low probability of showers as it passes. Widespread rain
will occur on Sunday and Sunday night with the next storm system.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
Tweaked temperatures a bit since obs are coming in a tad lower this
evening, but otherwise no major changes to sensible weather grids.
Winds continue to gust through the region, though we seem to be
entering into a brief lull where we've lost daytime heating but the
tighter pressure gradient/ 850mb jet hasn't quite moved into the
region just yet. As this jet moves over us, there is some question as
to how much of this wind will be translated down to the surface. For
now, have kept breezy conditions, with sustained winds around 10-15
MPH and gusts to 20 during the overnight.
Light precip still possible during the early morning hours with fropa
and forcing from shortwave. Overnight lows fall to the upper 30s in
east central IN/ west central OH and mid 40s along the Ohio River.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Cloud cover will be on the decrease through the morning, lingering
longest over central Ohio through early afternoon. Behind the surface
front, winds will turn northwest. They will also lighten in the
afternoon as high pressure tracks from the western CWA in the
evening to east of the CWA before daybreak. Winds will shift to the
southeast after the high passes to the east.
Cloud cover will be on the increase overnight as high clouds thicken
and lower from west to east.
High temperatures will range from the mid 40s north of the I-70
corridor to the mid 50s along and south of the Ohio River.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Surface low pressure will slide east from the Upper Midwest through
the Great Lakes Sunday and Monday. In advance of the low, isentropic
lift associated with strong southwesterly flow aloft will cause rain
to develop over the middle Ohio Valley Sunday. Following this, a cold
front will sweep through the CWA Sunday evening through Sunday
night.
Behind the departing front, the area will remain in a northwesterly
flow pattern as an upper trough digs into the Eastern CONUS. This
will keep occasional showers and seasonably cool temperatures in the
forecast. In this pattern, exact timing of the quick-moving
disturbances diving into the trough is uncertain. Based on the
latest guidance, northern counties could see a chance of cool rain
Monday afternoon, while more widespread rain arrives with a more
favorably positioned shortwave on Tuesday.
The eastern trough looks to get pushed slightly to our east Thursday
and Friday as upper ridging attempts to build east into the Ohio
Valley. This is likely to cause a warm-up to close the period.
&&
.AVIATION /01Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Gusty winds continue to feature in the forecast ahead of a quick
moving system that will drag a cold front across the Ohio Valley
during Friday overnight into Saturday morning.
Southwesterly winds continue to gust to 20 knots or so as we head
into the overnight- some question as to whether these winds will
continue to make it down to the surface after the sun sets, but went
ahead and included in TAFs. Aloft, a strong jet between 2k-4k feet
off the surface will move over the region after sunset tonight and
introduce LLWS into the TAFs through much of the overnight hours.
LLWS moves out around sunrise, but surface winds remain elevated on
Saturday, veering to out of the west, then ultimately northwest,
around 10-12 knots, gusting to 20kts. Winds decrease around sunset
Saturday.
As the system moves through, slight chance for light rain showers
during the early morning hours Saturday at northern TAF sites, KDAY
KLCK KCMH. Have included as a tempo.
CIGs will briefly drop to MVFR during Saturday early morning hours,
before popping back up to VFR then eventually scattering out Saturday
evening.
OUTLOOK...MVFR ceilings and visibilities likely on Sunday. Wind
gusts at or above 30 kt are possible Monday.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Franks
NEAR TERM...CA
SHORT TERM...Franks
LONG TERM...Clark
AVIATION...CA
Source:
ILN issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Mar 21, 9:07 PM EDT---------------
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