LIX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Mar 16, 10:00 PM CDT ...New UPDATE...567
FXUS64 KLIX 170300
AFDLIX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
1000 PM CDT Sun Mar 16 2025
...New UPDATE...
.UPDATE...
Issued at 952 PM CDT Sun Mar 16 2025
Deep upper trough axis passing just east of the area, with the
axis of the trailing surface high pressure extending from
Minnesota to east Texas. This continues to pump abnormally dry air
into the area with dew points even at 10 PM CDT in the 20s and
lower 30s across the area. The 00z LIX upper air sounding had a
precipitable water value of 0.23 inches, which is the daily minima
(almost 75 years worth of soundings) for the area. MOS and NBM
guidance hasn't tracked this particularly well, necessitating
using the NBM 5th percentile to get our dew point grids even
close to reality.
This brings the forecast lows from the deterministic NBM into
significant question. With winds already dropping below 5 knots,
it appears likely that winds will be nearly calm for a good
portion of the night. Going to lower overnight lows several
degrees in most areas, and hope that's enough. ZFP update out
shortly.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Monday night)
Issued at 320 PM CDT Sun Mar 16 2025
A mostly sunny yet breezy day has evolved this Sunday.
Temperatures behind the front are modestly cooler, but one thing
that is for sure is the dryness in the air. In fact, last hour
here at ASD the dewpoints had dropped into the lower 30s. Winds
have also been up there so there is a small window for some
critical fire weather conditions this afternoon, but this will be
very brief and should resolve once winds begin to decrease
overnight. Not to mention recent rainfall being a limiting factor.
A broad scale trough will continue to move overhead with H5 dry
northwest flow setting up, the short term will, indeed, be dry and
nearly cloud free. At the surface, high pressure will spread into
the region, which again will decrease winds overnight and allow us
to cool back into the 40s for most of the CWFA...maybe upper 30s
for the interior MS Counties. As for Monday, not much to write
home about. Sure, it will be dry with afternoon RH values dropping
into the 20 to 30 percent range, but that's mainly the story. A
cooler start than what we experienced today and a slightly warmer
by two or three degrees afternoon is expected with much less in
the way of breezy conditions. (Frye)
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Saturday night)
Issued at 320 PM CDT Sun Mar 16 2025
By Tuesday and especially into Wednesday a warming trend should
begin to take shape as low level return flow develops on the
backside of a departing surface high pressure. Aloft, a weak ridge
will move over and with higher heights and thicknesses several
folks will likely approach of exceed 80F on Wednesday. Speaking of
Wednesday, eyes shift upstream as another H5 trough begins to
spread eastward into the Cornbelt southward into the Red River
Valley. A surface low develops on the leeside of the Rockies
Tuesday and pushes northeast into the Great Lakes States by early
Thursday. This will push another cold front through the region
late Wednesday or early Thursday. The globals aren't too bullish
in terms of QPF signal, so kept the lower end POPs with the best
rain chances actually being east of the I59 corridor.
CAA begins on the backside of the front, with a cool down to
follow by Thursday with temperatures only climbing into the 60s
across the board (at least 10-15 degrees cooler than Wednesday).
Winds will begin to settle and overnight lows will drop off into
the upper 30s to the mid 40s on Friday morning. The cool down will
not last long as upper heights begin to increase quickly on Friday
and as the weak high exits to the east, a southerly return flow
will help bring back our low level warmth/moisture going into next
weekend.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 635 PM CDT Sun Mar 16 2025
VFR conditions through the forecast period. Wind speeds should
diminish over the next hour or two at all terminals with the
exception of KNEW, where winds may not drop below 15 knots until
around 09z.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 320 PM CDT Sun Mar 16 2025
Winds and seas will remain hazardous through the evening and into
the overnight. High pressure will spread into the region early
Monday and will begin to decrease winds from northwest to
southeast with time. Going into the day on Monday, winds and seas
eventually become favorable and should remain favorable at least
for a couple of days before another front moves into the region
midweek...again increasing winds and seas with SCAs likely by late
Wednesday or Thursday. (Frye)
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB 37 72 43 76 / 0 0 0 0
BTR 38 74 46 78 / 0 0 0 0
ASD 40 73 46 75 / 0 0 0 0
MSY 47 70 51 75 / 0 0 0 0
GPT 42 70 48 71 / 0 0 0 0
PQL 39 71 44 74 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM CDT Monday for GMZ530-532-534-
536-538-550-552-570.
Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM CDT Monday for GMZ555-557-572-
575-577.
MS...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM CDT Monday for GMZ532-534-536-
538-550-552-570.
Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM CDT Monday for GMZ557-572-575-
577.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...RDF
LONG TERM....RDF
AVIATION...RW
MARINE...RDF
Source:
LIX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Mar 16, 10:00 PM CDT ...New UPDATE...---------------
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