ILN issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Mar 20, 2:05 AM EDT063
FXUS61 KILN 200605
AFDILN
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
205 AM EDT Thu Mar 20 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will cross the region today and produce some scattered
light showers, possibly mixed with snow at times. Another cold front
passing early on Saturday will be followed by cold air and a series
of cold fronts through early next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
Band of showers will continue to track across the region overnight as
a prefrontal trough moves east. There are still some gusty winds in
places, but for the most part in the 20 to 30 mph range. Temperatures
will be dropping into the 40s, except in eastern counties where it
will still be around 50 by daybreak.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
Low pressure system moves through the Great Lakes northwest of the
Ohio Valley tonight. Southerly winds continue up until FROPA with
increasing moisture returning just ahead of the front. The front is
expected to cross Thursday morning, with showers and storms possible
due to strong mixing with the cold air intrusion. Cold air will be
significant enough in the lower atmosphere that snow could mix in
with any of the deeper areas of convection that are supporting a
stronger shower.
The trough of the upper low will cross the CWA Thursday afternoon and
mark the end of any shower activity. Northwest flow through a deep
layer is expected to give us a reinforcing shot of cold air, enough
to have falling temperatures beginning in the afternoon versus the
typical nightfall. Overnight lows will drop to the mid 20s with the
continued push of cold air and the brief passage of a surface ridge
to briefly allow some radiative cooling towards daybreak Friday.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
High pressure at the surface and aloft will quickly traverse east
across the region on Friday. It will start out sunny, then some
clouds will increase from the west during the afternoon. With
developing WAA and southwest flow, highs will rebound into the 50s
which will be close to normal for the latter part of March.
For Friday night into Saturday, a fast moving s/wv and cold front
will make its way east across the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley
region. The system is somewhat moisture starved, so the chances for
pcpn will be mainly confined to northern zones, closer to the mid
level dynamics. After lows in the upper 30s to the lower 40s, highs
will range from the mid 40s northwest to the mid 50s southeast.
Surface high pressure will briefly visit the region Saturday night,
but clouds will already be streaming in from the west and southwest
ahead of the next weather system. Lows will drop into the upper 20s
to the lower 30s.
A much stronger system, more dynamics and deeper moisture, will
affect the region Sunday into Monday. Categorical PoPs with showers
will ramp up during the day Sunday, peaking Sunday night ahead and
along a cold front. Some showers, mainly north, will linger in the
post frontal airmass on Monday. Highs in the 50s Sunday will begin
to cool some by Monday, especially west, in the post frontal
airmass.
As we head into Tuesday and Wednesday, it appears it will be cooler
as a mid level trough sets up residence across the Great Lakes and
Ohio Valley. Shallow instability and embedded s/wvs in the northwest
flow will bring sporadic chances for showers. Temperatures will be
cooler than normal.
&&
.AVIATION /05Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Showers tracking across the terminals at the start of the period
could still temporarily reduce visibility to MVFR, but ceilings will
be VFR for the early part of the TAF period. West winds will still
have some gusts but then diminish a bit as they back to southwest or
perhaps even south.
Winds, both sustained and gusts will increase after 12Z. An MVFR
ceiling will spread across the region, mostly above 2kft, but there
will be some periods below that threshold. Some showers will develop
ahead of a cold front that will cross the terminals between 15Z and
19Z. Winds will become more westerly and eventually northwesterly
with some gusts up to 30 kt not out of the question. There will be
additional scattered showers behind the front.
Winds gusts will diminish around or after 00Z. MVFR ceilings will
lift to VFR and then quickly scatter out late in the period.
OUTLOOK... MVFR ceilings are possible on Saturday with MVFR ceilings
and visibilities likely on Sunday. Wind gusts in at or above 30 kt
are possible Monday.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Franks
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...Franks
LONG TERM...Hickman
AVIATION...
Source:
ILN issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Mar 20, 2:05 AM EDT---------------
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