BOX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Mar 16, 2:52 AM EDT101
FXUS61 KBOX 160652
AFDBOX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
252 AM EDT Sun Mar 16 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
A strong cold front will bring the potential for heavy rain and
strong southerly wind gusts tonight into Monday morning. Mainly
dry and mild weather returns Tuesday into Thursday. Another
approaching cold front will likely bring a period of showers
sometime late Thursday into Thursday night, followed by blustery
and cooler conditions next Friday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
A low pressure moves north across the Great Lakes into eastern
Canada today along a front. This will slow the approach of this
front until much later today. As this front gets closer to
southern New England, expecting an increasing south wind.
Despite a strong LLJ, winds look to stay below Advisory criteria
with a strong inversion in place. A few isolated gusts of 45+
mph cannot be completely ruled out across the higher terrain.
Anticipating most of today to feature abundant clouds. Some
patchy drizzle or light rain is possible early this morning
while a blob of higher humidity passes by. This will be
evidenced by areas of fog as well. Once we get past sunrise,
thinking it will dry out just enough to bring the
drizzle/sprinkles to an end for most of today. It will be the
approach of the aforementioned front that returns rainfall
chances to our region late today.
Despite the clouds, well above normal high temperatures in the
50s and 60s should be widespread.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
Widespread rainfall arrives tonight. A secondary low pressure is
projected to develop along this front Monday, slowing its
eastward progress. This will extend the time for rainfall.
Anticipating a widespread 1.0-1.5 inches of rainfall when all
is done. HREF LPMM QPF shoed potential for a band of heavier
rainfall of 2.0-2.5 inches of rainfall. This heavier rainfall is
most likely across portions of eastern CT, across RI into
portions of southeast MA.
Above normal temperatures continue.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Key Messages:
* Mild start to the week
* Next system approaches sometime Thursday night into Friday
morning
* Colder going into the weekend
Details...
The rest of the rain continues to exit the region going into
Tuesday morning. Once it passes, the majority of the associated
cloud cover should begin to break up a bit from west to east as
Tuesday goes on. Winds shift more to the north, but there is
still a decent chance that temperatures reach 55F towards the
interior. Warmer temperatures aloft (close to +10C at 850 mb)
from ridging will encourage these mild temperatures for midweek.
High pressure keeps the region dry for the rest of Tuesday into
midweek. Easterly to northeasterly flow returns for Wednesday,
which may contribute to more clouds and will keep the eastern
coastline of MA cooler than the interior. South to SE flow
Thursday will also advect more moisture from over the Atlantic.
Another trough is expected to dig into the central US and move
northeast into the Great Lakes region. Its surface low is
expected to continue its northeast trajectory into Canada while
its cold front extends south into the US. Guidance is also
hinting at the development of a secondary low along its cold
front over the mid- Atlantic which will be something to monitor.
With moisture being advected in Thursday, ensemble guidance
indicates slightly above normal PWAT values out ahead of this
front across southern New England for Thursday night, only about
a standard deviation above normal at most. With the lift
provided from the cold front's passage, the development of rain
showers just ahead of the front is possible Thursday night into
Friday. As this front passes, winds during the day Friday will
increase and shift to the NW. Breezy NW winds and cooler
temperatures aloft will keep much of the region in the 40s for
Friday. Drier and colder post-frontal air Friday night may bring
overnight lows down to the upper 20s.
&&
.AVIATION /05Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
Today...Moderate confidence.
Mainly IFR for most. Could be a brief period of MVFR towards
the coastal plain of southern RI and southeast MA. Windy with
gusts up to 35 kt, especially across the higher terrain. LLWS
possible towards the coast. Increasing risk for RA from west to
east late this afternoon. Gusty S winds.
Tonight and Monday...High confidence.
Widespread IFR and rain, especially after midnight. Conditions
likely persist through the Monday morning push, then show slow
improvement to from west to east during the late morning into
the afternoon hours.
KBOS TAF...Moderate confidence in TAF.
KBDL TAF...Moderate Confidence in TAF.
Outlook /Monday Night through Thursday/...
Monday Night: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Breezy.
Chance RA.
Tuesday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Breezy.
Tuesday Night: VFR.
Wednesday: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible.
Wednesday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas IFR possible.
Thursday: Mainly VFR, with areas IFR possible. Breezy. Chance
RA.
&&
.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels:
Low - less than 30 percent.
Medium - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
Through Monday...High confidence.
Increasing south winds today persist into Monday. Do not have
confidence there will be enough mixing over the waters to
generate consistent gale-force gusts. Converted the Gale Watch
to strong Small Craft Advisories as a result. However, a few
gusts up to 35 kt are not impossible. A cold front should reach
the waters Monday morning, then move across the waters the rest
of the day.
Outlook /Monday Night through Thursday/...
Monday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Rough seas up to 12 ft.
Rain. Local visibility 1 to 3 nm.
Tuesday: Winds less than 25 kt. Rough seas up to 10 ft. Slight
chance of rain.
Tuesday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of rough seas.
Wednesday through Wednesday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas
up to 5 ft.
Thursday: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of rough seas. Slight
chance of rain.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
Downpours are expected to develop tonight into Monday across
southern New England, with latest forecast between 1-1.25" in
northern MA, and around 1.25-1.5 inches for most of interior
southern New England, with the greatest rainfall totals of 1.75
to up to 2.5" across eastern CT, RI and southeast MA including
Cape Cod and the Islands. While forecast confidence in the
rainfall placement is moderate to high, rainfall totals are only
moderate confidence. There is potential for locally higher
totals if we experience a greater coverage of embedded
convection, or if the frontal boundary moves more slowly that
currently expected.
Widespread significant flooding is not expected and the rain
overall should prove beneficial in light of our spell of recent
dry weather. However, urban and poor drainage nuisance flooding
could develop, especially in some of the more urbanized areas
across eastern RI and southeast MA (including but not limited to
the Providence/Fall River/New Bedford metro areas). Could have
some difficult travel in downpours for the Monday morning
commute, especially across eastern MA and RI.
On rivers, we should see some response on the flashier urban
creeks/streams in CT, RI and eastern MA Sunday night into
Monday. While these will need to be monitored, unless we see
more rainfall than currently anticipated, it's unlikely these
will rise to flood stage. However, we want to mention that in
response to the combination of rain Sun/Mon and upriver snowmelt
moving down the CT River, MMEFS probabilistic guidance indicates
a few of the CT river forecast points (Northhampton,
Thompsonville, Hartford) have the potential to reach into minor
flood stage around Tuesday and/or Wednesday. These will also be
monitored closely over the coming days.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...None.
RI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to 6 AM EDT
Monday for ANZ230.
Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to 4 PM EDT
Monday for ANZ231-251.
Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to 8 PM EDT
Monday for ANZ232>237.
Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT
Monday for ANZ250-254>256.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Belk/Hrencecin
NEAR TERM...Belk
SHORT TERM...Belk
LONG TERM...Hrencecin
AVIATION...Belk/Hrencecin
MARINE...Belk/Hrencecin
HYDROLOGY...Belk/Loconto/FT
Source:
BOX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Mar 16, 2:52 AM EDT----------------
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