PBZ issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Mar 18, 4:30 PM EDT536
FXUS61 KPBZ 182030
AFDPBZ
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
430 PM EDT Tue Mar 18 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Dry with warmer temperatures through tomorrow. Rain
showers are expected Thursday ahead of a cold front. Cooler
temperatures, closer to normal, for the end of the week into the
weekend.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
KEY MESSAGES:
- Dry conditions
-------------------------------------------------------------------
The ridge will remain in the area through tomorrow morning. This
will result in relatively light winds out of the south through
tomorrow morning.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
- Dry and warmer Wednesday.
- Fire weather conditions possible Wednesday.
- Rain chances return on Wednesday Night.
- Rain Thursday ahead of a cold front.
- Colder air moves in Thursday afternoon.
-------------------------------------------------------------------
Warm air advection continues on Wednesday as the ridge axis
moves across the region with temperatures into the mid- and
upper-70s. We are expecting sustained winds up to 10-15 mph
shifting with wind gusts forecast to reach up to 25-30 mph by
tomorrow afternoon. Wind direction is expected to veer from
southerly in the morning to westerly by the afternoon. During
the day tomorrow, minimum relative humidity is forecast to be
between 15%-20%. In combination with dry fuels, a special
weather statement may need to be issued for tomorrow.
Wednesday night, a surface low pressure will begin to move into
the area and continued warm advection will result in a chance
of showers after midnight in mainly the Ohio portion of the
forecast area.
On Thursday, a cold front will be moving through in the
afternoon with strong cold advection and precipitation.
Continued cold advection, the turn to northwest flow, and
upslope should drop 850 mb temps to about 21F to 25F during the
evening, resulting in a cold rain in the low lands and snow in
the ridges before the precipitation dissipates.
This looks like a light precipitation event with NBM 24 hour
25th-75th PQPF ranging from 0.10 to 0.50".
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
KEY MESSAGES:
- Plenty of day to day variability in temperatures precipitation
expected during the period.
- Snow showers Thursday night.
- High pressure will keep Friday and Friday night dry.
- A weak disturbance will bring a chance of light showers for
Saturday.
- Strong trough brings more significant shower chances Monday.
-------------------------------------------------------------------
A progressive pattern with series of fast moving troughs across
CONUS will bring changeable weather in the extended. Ridge
moving in with roughly 80 meter height rises on Friday should
bring quiet weather.
Fast moving trough moves through Saturday with chance of
precipitation but this would likely have limited moisture. 75th
percentile PQPF only about 0.10" on that system.
After another quiet day Sunday, a strong trough is shown to move
into the Ohio Valley for Monday bring another decent chance of
precipitation. NBM 25th-75th PQPF is on the order of 0.15 to
0.60".
&&
.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR is expected through the TAF period. Winds out of the SSW
around 5-10 kts (occasional gusts to 15-20 knots) this
afternoon settle this evening into tonight. Winds then ramp up
again on Wednesday as the local pressure gradient tightens in
response to an encroaching low pressure system to our west.
Probabilities for gusts over 20 knots are near 100% at all
terminals Wednesday afternoon, while probabilities for gusts over
30 knots are roughly 50-70% west of a FKL-AGC-MGW line (lower
probabilities east of that line).
Outlook...
Showers, gusty winds, and potential restrictions return
Wednesday night and Thursday with a crossing cold front. Cig
restrictions and scattered rain/snow showers are expected
Thursday night with subsequent upper troughing and cold
advection. VFR returns Friday under high pressure before low
pressure crosses the region Saturday, bringing showers and
restrictions.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
OH...None.
WV...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...22/Lupo
NEAR TERM...Lupo
SHORT TERM...22/Lupo
LONG TERM...Craven
AVIATION...Cermak/WM
Source:
PBZ issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Mar 18, 4:30 PM EDT---------------
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