ILN issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Mar 19, 1:56 PM EDT845
FXUS61 KILN 191756
AFDILN
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
156 PM EDT Wed Mar 19 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Dry conditions will be present through a large portion of the day on
Wednesday. Winds will be gusty on Wednesday with showers starting to
move in late in the day. Overnight Wednesday, a pre-frontal trough
will move east through the region, with an accompanying line of
thunderstorms. On Thursday, a cold front will follow this trough and
may produce a few additional lighter showers.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 1 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
Strong winds ahead of a pre frontal trough entering this evening will
gust to near 50 mph at times. Given current observations nearing
gusts to 35 mph and a tightening gradient expected through the day,
have hoisted a wind advisory that will go through the evening hours.
Advisory is expected to cover the time where showers and
thunderstorms are present. While the convective nature of showers and
thunderstorms do not represent an advisory, will let upstream values
later tonight indicate whether or not to drop the advisory in favor
of any warnings that could be issued. An advisory will cover any
areas in-between storms that will still be gusting significantly.
A low pressure system approaches from the Mississippi River Valley
today. Warm southerly flow east of the low will help highs peak into
the 60s west of I-75 to the upper 70s southeast of the Scioto River
Valley. Warm temperatures, gusty winds, and low dew points lead to
low relative humidity this afternoon leading to some possible fire
weather concerns over eastern CWA.
&&
.SHORT TERM /1 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
The aforementioned low pressure system moves through the Great Lakes
northwest of the Ohio Valley tonight. Southerly winds continue up
until FROPA with increasing moisture returning just ahead of the
front. Despite weak moisture return, some showers and storms are
possible overnight with strong forcing arriving. Gusty winds are
likely to occur inside shower/storm activity due to strong LLJ winds
aloft being mixed down because of evaporative cooling in the shallow
inverted V thermodynamic profile. While a more traditional severe
risk cannot be ruled out, instability will likely be a limiting
factor despite shear being strong. Winds shift to the west/southwest
behind the initial front and line of showers by daybreak and
temperatures will start to drop.
For Thursday, the low pressure system keeps progressing northeast of
the area bringing a secondary cold front through on Thursday. Winds
shift more to northwest behind the second front. The chance for some
light showers, and some snow showers, persists through the day with
upper level troughing moving overhead. Temperatures hold steady, or
drop, after daybreak due to strong CAA. Wind gusts will likely
approach 30 mph.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Mid level ridging will shift quickly east across the Ohio Valley
through the day on Friday. A progressive zonal flow pattern will
then set up across much of the CONUS through the weekend and into
early next week with fast moving short waves moving east in the
flow. The first short wave will move across the Great Lakes region
Friday night into Saturday. The better forcing and moisture with
this look to remain mainly to our north though, so will just allow
for some lower end pops. A somewhat stronger short wave will then
move through the region Sunday into Monday, leading to more
widespread showers. Daytime readings will be fairly seasonable
through the long term period with afternoon highs mostly in the
upper 40s and 50s.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Breezy southerly wind continues for most of the TAF period before
veering to the southwest after a pre frontal trough tonight.
Stronger wind gusts are likely inside shower activity tonight just
prior to FROPA as LLJ winds mix down. Additionally, a strong LLJ will
provide LLWS prior to FROPA this evening.
VFR conditions will be found until the late day when cigs drop below
3kft. Between 02Z and 04Z, a line of thunderstorms will pass from
west to east, affecting the terminals accordingly. These storms will
see lower end MVFR vsbys and cigs that will temporarily drop below
1kft at times in the heavier showers, along with IFR vsbys.
Storms will end from west-east between 06Z and 08Z with cigs
improving to higher end MVFR and unrestricted vsbys.
As cold air infiltrates the region behind the actual front that will
come in at the tail end of the TAF period, cigs will drop again to
near the MVFR/IFR intersection around 1kft. Some showers will be
possible in convective cells that develop with the overturning of the
colder air aloft.
OUTLOOK... No significant weather.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
The widespread strong winds today will combine with low relative
humidity along and east of the Scioto River, including Adams and
Lewis counties but excepting Franklin and Delaware counties.
Sustained winds of 15 mph with gusts of 25-30 mph and relative
humidities under 30% have increased the threat of wildfires today,
especially with very dry grasses and leaf litter.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...Wind Advisory until 1 AM EDT Thursday for OHZ026-034-035-042>044-
051>053-060>062-070>072-077>079.
Red Flag Warning until 10 PM EDT this evening for OHZ056-064-065-
073-074-081-082-088.
KY...Wind Advisory until 1 AM EDT Thursday for KYZ089>099.
Red Flag Warning until 10 PM EDT this evening for KYZ100.
IN...Wind Advisory until 1 AM EDT Thursday for INZ050-058-059-066-
073>075-080.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Campbell
NEAR TERM...Franks
SHORT TERM...Campbell
LONG TERM...JGL
AVIATION...Franks
FIRE WEATHER...Franks
Source:
ILN issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Mar 19, 1:56 PM EDT---------------
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