MOB issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Mar 15, 4:30 PM CDT ...New Discussion...066
FXUS64 KMOB 152210 CCA
AFDMOB
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
430 PM CDT Sat Mar 15 2025
...New Discussion...
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 430 PM CDT Sat Mar 15 2025
Now through Sunday Night...
Synopsis...As we alluded to earlier, we expected a later arrival
of thunderstorms. For the latest timing, the thunderstorms are
just now beginning to spread eastward across southeast
Mississippi and interior southwest Alabama, and will continue to
spread across the remainder of our forecast area throughout the
evening. The line of thunderstorms is then expected to exit our
area by 3 AM. We are anticipating more favorable atmospheric
forcing to unfold as our area will soon be located in the right
entrance region of a strong 100-130 knot 300mb polar jet. The low
level jet accompanying this system is very impressive with 850mb
winds of 60 and 70 knots through midnight. 0-6km Bulk Shear values
are now as high as 75 knots north of I-10.
MLCape values are ranging between 2000 and 2500 J/KG, with SFC-1KM
SRH values of 500 M2/S2. The near storm environment remains very
favorable to support the development of severe thunderstorms with
long-tracked violent tornadoes and damaging winds up to 70 mph
late this afternoon and evening. Hail up to 2 inches may occur in
a few storms.
Due to the fast moving nature of the storms, persons are going to
really need to pay attention to potential threats and act quickly.
Have multiple ways to receive warnings, including one that will
wake you up in the middle of the night. Know what to do and where
to go when warnings are issued for your location.
Wind...Due to 925mb winds as high as 55 knots, or only 2500 feet
above the surface, and frequent gusts of 40-45 mph at the surface,
the Wind Advisory will remain in effect until midnight for the
potential of downed trees and hazardous driving conditions on area
bridges.
Coastal Hazards...A High Surf Warning for dangerously large
breaking waves of 7 to 10 feet in the surf zone remains in effect
until 3 AM, followed by a High Surf Advisory from 3 AM to 3 PM
Sunday. On top of the high surf, life threatening rip currents
will be likely across all area beaches through Monday afternoon as
seas take a few days to subside. A Coastal Flood Advisory remains
in effect for central and southern Mobile and Baldwin counties,
mainly for minor flooding along the Highway 90/98 Causeway across
northern Mobile Bay, particularly along the outside, eastbound
lanes and around the I- 10/Causeway access ramps. In addition,
minor flooding is possible across southern Mobile Bay and along
coastal Alabama for lots and parks, with isolated road closures
possible.
Dry and cooler conditions are then expected through the reminder
of the weekend with the coastal hazard threats slowly diminishing.
/22
Monday through Friday...
No impactful weather expected. High pressure moves eastward over
the local area the first half of the week. The next front makes
passage across the area late Wednesday and brings next chance of
showers. There is favorable 0-6km bulk shear magnitudes in place
Wednesday but low instability. This results in a non- zero chance
of thunder, but only ~ 10% or less probabilities so will leave
thunder out of the zones. We quickly dry out and cool down once
again behind the mid-week frontal passage for Thursday and Friday
as high pressure builds in behind the front. Highs will gradually
moderate with each day through Wednesday, when highs top out into
the mid to upper 70's that day before tapering back to close out
the week and then back into the into the mid to upper 70's
Saturday. Nights cool with lowest mins coming Thursday night with
numbers 33 to 38 interior to lower 40's coast. /10
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1228 PM CDT Sat Mar 15 2025
Convection is organizing west of the local area from southeast LA
lifting up across central MS and these will spread eastward bringing
impacts this afternoon and evening. A wide range of variable cig
bases from VFR to IFR. In general, MVFR to IFR cigs will prevail
through the remainder of the afternoon. We likely will see periods
of IFR to perhaps LIFR cigs in and near shra and some strong/severe
tstms that will move east across the region later this afternoon and
this evening. Strong southeasterly surface flow this afternoon will
result in hazardous wind gusts for departures and approaches, easily
around 20 knots gusting to 35 knots in most locations. Non-
convective low level wind shear in afternoon forecasts upwards of
around 50 kts at 2 kft. Storms will likely become severe with
damaging winds, large hail, and tornadoes all being possible. /10
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 430 PM CDT Sat Mar 15 2025
Southerly Gale Force winds this evening will shift westerly after
midnight and diminish toward daybreak Sunday behind a cold front.
Small Craft conditions follow for the remainder of the weekend
over the Gulf due to high seas and moderate to strong westerly to
northwesterly winds. Light to occasionally moderate offshore flow
Monday decreases and becomes mainly southerly by the middle part
of next week, before shifting back to northerly on Thursday. /22
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile 55 73 43 69 40 73 54 77 / 60 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Pensacola 59 75 47 67 46 69 57 74 / 80 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Destin 63 74 49 69 49 70 58 73 / 90 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Evergreen 55 76 40 68 35 77 44 79 / 90 0 0 0 0 0 0 10
Waynesboro 52 69 39 68 39 76 49 79 / 70 0 0 0 0 0 0 10
Camden 54 71 40 64 38 75 46 77 / 90 0 0 0 0 0 0 10
Crestview 57 78 42 69 34 75 43 78 / 90 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
&&
.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...Wind Advisory until midnight CDT tonight for ALZ051>060-261>266.
Coastal Flood Advisory until 10 PM CDT this evening for
ALZ263>266.
High Rip Current Risk through Monday afternoon for ALZ265-266.
High Surf Warning until 3 AM CDT Sunday for ALZ265-266.
High Surf Advisory from 3 AM to 3 PM CDT Sunday for ALZ265-266.
FL...Wind Advisory until midnight CDT tonight for FLZ201>206.
High Rip Current Risk through Monday afternoon for FLZ202-204-
206.
High Surf Warning until 3 AM CDT Sunday for FLZ202-204-206.
High Surf Advisory from 3 AM to 3 PM CDT Sunday for FLZ202-204-
206.
MS...Wind Advisory until midnight CDT tonight for MSZ067-075-076-078-
079.
GM...Gale Warning until midnight CDT tonight for GMZ630>636-650-655-
670-675.
Small Craft Advisory from midnight tonight to 3 AM CDT Sunday
for GMZ630>636.
Small Craft Advisory from midnight tonight to 9 AM CDT Monday
for GMZ650-655-670-675.
&&
$$
This product is also available on the web at:
www.weather.gov/mob
Source:
MOB issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Mar 15, 4:30 PM CDT ...New Discussion...---------------
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