CLE issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jun 10, 1:19 AM EDT ...06z TAF Aviation Forecast Update...917
FXUS61 KCLE 100519
AFDCLE
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
119 AM EDT Mon Jun 10 2024
...06z TAF Aviation Forecast Update...
.SYNOPSIS...
A weak secondary cold front will move south across the area tonight.
High pressure will begin to build east over the area on Monday and
persist through much of the week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
925 PM Update...
Minor POP changes with the cold front and incoming low level
moisture overnight. Some POPs creep back in Monday with another
surface trough swinging through as well, but most places dry in
this forecast. Also adjusted the overnight low slightly.
Previous Discussion...
Gusty west-northwest winds will persist through sunset with gusts as
high as 25-30 mph across the area. These winds will quickly weaken
to 5-10 mph late this evening and will be accompanied by low
temperatures dipping into the low to mid 50s tonight. In addition,
late this evening and into tonight, a weak secondary cold front will
move south across the area as another shortwave moves along the
upper level trough. With this boundary, there is a potential for
scattered, lake enhanced rain showers, especially across northwest
Pennsylvania. As this boundary moves south, 850mb temperature near
6C will push across Lake Erie, resulting in marginal lake induced
instability. In addition, models suggest the best potential for
surface convergence to occur along the eastern shores of Lake Erie.
Not expecting any thunder with these showers as overall forcing
remains weak. These showers should all dissipate Monday morning,
leaving the bulk of the day dry across the area. Unfortunately,
moisture will linger and a stratus deck will likely persist over
much of the CWA on Monday. The best chance of any sunshine will be
along the I75 corridor in the afternoon. Highs on Monday will be
unseasonably cool, only reaching into the upper 60s across western
counties and into the mid to upper 50s for eastern counties. By late
Monday, high pressure begins to build in and allows for conditions
to remain dry through Monday night. With continued clearing expected
Monday night, radiational cooling coupled with CAA will result in
temperatures falling into the 40s, with the exception of the
lakeshore which should linger in the low 50s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Temperatures will be on the rebound Tuesday as high pressure builds
in, though still slightly below normal (by 4-7 degrees). The high
pressure center shifts southeast to the mid-Atlantic region by
Wednesday, though a ridge extends westward across much of the
southeast CONUS into the lower Mississippi Valley. Southwest flow
develops and advected warmer air to the region on Wednesday with
highs close to normal (ranging from highs in the mid 70s in
Northwest Pennsylvania to mid 80s in Northwest Ohio).
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Wednesday's synoptic-scale pattern continues into Thursday with
southwest warm air advection bringing above normal temperatures to
the region with highs ranging from low 80s in Northwest Pennsylvania
to around 90 in Northwest Ohio. An upper-level trough moves
southeast across the Great Lakes region Thursday night into Friday
bringing a chance for showers and thunderstorms. 12Z model guidance
has come in a bit slower and stronger with forcing compared to
previous runs, so PoPs have increased for later Thursday night and
during the day Friday. There is a low chance for severe weather due
to most model guidance having strong mid-level flow ahead of the
trough but it is wholly dependent on timing of convection due to
average moisture content and subsequent marginal instability
expected. A low end severe weather threat could be possible with
thunderstorms that move in from the northwest Thursday, or
redevelopment Friday afternoon.
Temperatures cool back down to near normal on Saturday as high
pressure builds back in but temperatures will be back on the rise
Sunday (and beyond, see likely above normal temperatures in CPC's 6-
10 day and 8-14 day temperature outlook).
&&
.AVIATION /06Z Monday THROUGH Friday/...
Another cold front will come through the area early this
morning. VFR conditions will become MVFR ceilings behind the
cold front this morning through the afternoon. Ceiling will
lift to VFR by this evening. Some clearing skies are expected
over NWOH and NCOH this evening. Winds will be from the north or
northwest today and tonight starting off around 10 knots this
morning. Winds will increase 12 to 15 knots later today with
gusts over 20 knots possible. Winds will relax to 5 knot or less
tonight.
Outlook...Non-VFR ceilings are possible with scattered showers Thursday
night into early Friday.
&&
.MARINE...
No changes were made to marine headlines as wind observations on
Lake Erie persist out of the west and northwest in the 15-20 knot
range with waves of 2-5 ft. Expect these conditions to continue
through at least this evening before gradually improving tonight and
tomorrow. While conditions improve, northwest winds of around 15
knots will continue to produce choppy conditions on the lake during
the day Monday, with a moderate risk of rip currents east of the
Islands. High pressure builds in by Tuesday, with a much quieter
lake expected. Modest southwest winds of around 10-15 knots develops
by Wednesday and Thursday.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
NY...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Campbell
NEAR TERM...Campbell/26
SHORT TERM...Saunders
LONG TERM...Saunders
AVIATION...Griffin
MARINE...Saunders
Source:
CLE issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jun 10, 1:19 AM EDT ...06z TAF Aviation Forecast Update...---------------
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