BOX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Mar 9, 1:31 PM EDT739
FXUS61 KBOX 091731
AFDBOX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
131 PM EDT Sun Mar 9 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
A couple of weak areas of low pressure will traverse across the
Northeast states today and again late tonight into early Monday.
Expect a mix of clouds and sun with blustery conditions today,
with full sun and a rather mild day expected for Monday. Much of
the workweek will be dry and seasonably mild, with the next
chance for precipitation around next weekend.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Key Messages...
* Morning sun fades behind some clouds this afternoon
* Breezy with high temps this afternoon well into the 40s
Previous forecast is on track. Sunny skies at mid morning will
fade behind some clouds this afternoon. This in response to a
mid level warm front approaching from the west. There is not
much moisture associated with this front...so nothing more than
perhaps a brief sprinkle/high terrain flurry this afternoon.
925T warm to around -1C/0C by mid afternoon...so think highs
will top out well into the 40s across most locations. Deep
mixing will support a gusty southwest breeze developing by
afternoon...generally on the order of 25 to 30 mph with a few
gusts up to 35 mph possible.
&&
415 AM Update:
Key Messages:
* Partly to mostly cloudy but dry tonight, lows around
freezing.
* Turns sunny and rather mild on Monday with highs in the 50s, with
lowering relative humidities.
Details:
Tonight:
Decreasing clouds and a subtle windshift from WSW winds to westerly
with brief easing of wind speeds/gusts early tonight thru midnight,
as one weak clipper exits offshore. Both are pretty temporary
though, as cloud cover again increases during the late-overnight to
pre-dawn hrs. While the winds will also shift to SW and becoming
around 10-15 mph again, any gusts to 25 mph should be more limited
to the higher terrain. Pretty challenging temperature forecast for
tonight given the changes in cloud cover and wind speeds, but sided
temps on the warmer end of guidance, and it should be a few degrees
warmer than tonight was, in the 30-34 degree range.
Monday:
The second weak Clipper low moves offshore early Monday, giving way
to full sunshine for Monday. Neutral to modest warm advection post-
Clipper on westerly flow seems poised to lead to a rather mild day
with highs well into the 50s! WNWly breezes too, in the 20-25 mph
range.
The only potential concern is fire weather, though meteorological
conditions are borderline. We probably won't mix as well as we have
the past several days, since low level temps aren't especially cold.
Even so, stronger sfc heating should allow for steepening lapse
rates and dewpoints mixing out into the mid 20s. Might be hard
pressed to go lower on the dewpoints without deeper mixing. With
highs in the mid 50s, relative humidities in the 30-35 percent
range should be common in interior Southern New England. Wind
gusts are also around 20-25 mph. Later shifts may need to reach
out to the fire weather partners for their input on possible
need for messaging.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Tuesday
Strong low pressure near Hudson Bay draws warm southerly air to the
region for Tuesday. High temps will be in the upper 50s to low 60s
under mostly sunny skies and southerly flow. Breezy conditions
continue on Tuesday with 20-30mph gusts out of the South. The
southerly winds will keep the south coast and Cape and Islands
cooler in the upper 40s to low 50s.
Wednesday through Friday:
Temperatures have trended cooler for Wednesday and Thursday after a
cold front moves through the region. High temperatures now look to
struggle to reach the 50s both days under northerly flow Wed and
onshore flow Thursday. Skies Wednesday should be mostly sunny, with
dry air being advected, but with winds turning onshore for Thursday,
skies likely turn mostly cloudy. NBM continues to trend pops down
for Thursday, now less than 20%, which makes sense given the lack of
any discernible upper-level forcing. Some weak mid-level warm
air advection and increased moisture may lead to isolated
showers/sprinkles. Still, Bufkit soundings show low-level dry
air left over from Wednesday. This may lead to more virga than
rain reaching the ground. Temperatures should warm some Friday
back into the mid-50s with warm air advection.
Next weekend:
Guidance is already in good agreement that a strong 500mb closed
trough exiting the central US and moving towards the region late in
the weekend. This will likely be our next best shot at accumulating
rainfall, as the CPCs two-week hazards outlook shows a moderate risk
for heavy precipitation March 15 - 17.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Forecast Confidence Levels:
Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
18z TAF Update...
This afternoon...High Confidence.
VFR with mid level cloudiness overspreading the region. WSW
wind gusts of 20 to 25 knots with a few gusts up to 30 knots.
Tonight...High Confidence.
VFR with another round of mid level cloudiness later in the
evening and into the overnight hours. SW winds mainly 5 to 10
knots.
Monday...High Confidence.
VFR. WNW winds of 8-14 knots with some 20+ knot wind gusts into
the early afternoon. The gradient may weaken enough to result in
sea breezes along the eastern MA coast near or after 21z.
Monday night...High Confidence.
VFR. Light/Calm S winds.
KBOS TAF...High confidence in TAF. The only uncertainty is
whether a sea breeze develops Mon after 21z.
KBDL TAF...High confidence in TAF.
Outlook /Monday Night through Thursday/...
Monday Night: VFR.
Tuesday through Wednesday: VFR. Breezy.
Wednesday Night: VFR.
Thursday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible.
&&
.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels:
Low - less than 30 percent.
Medium - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
415 AM Update:
Gale Warnings have been downgraded to SCAs on all waters, which
continue thru 12z Monday. Although there may be periods where
gusts may be more at borderline-SCA levels (best chance of that
occurring is tonight before picking up again after midnight),
most of the period features westerly gusts in the 25-30 kt
range. Seas in the 4-6 ft range, which may lower some today into
the 3-5 ft range. However seas then increase again into the 4-6
ft range for tonight into Monday, highest on the southern outer
waters.
Outlook /Monday Night through Thursday/...
Monday Night through Tuesday: Winds less than 25 kt.
Tuesday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching
5 ft.
Wednesday through Thursday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas up to
5 ft.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...None.
RI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Monday for ANZ230>237-250-
251-254>256.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Loconto/KP
NEAR TERM...Frank
SHORT TERM...Loconto
LONG TERM...KP
AVIATION...Frank/KP
MARINE...Loconto/KP
Source:
BOX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Mar 9, 1:31 PM EDT----------------
If I'm using your data in a way that is against your terms please email the team at "threatweb@pupswoof117.com"! I am a bot who will not respond in the comments at all and is only designed to post RSS feeds!
