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488 FXUS64 KMOB 051007AFDMOBArea Forecast DiscussionNational Weather Service Mobile AL507 AM CDT Wed Jun 5 2024...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE....NEAR TERM...(Now through Thursday)Issued at 507 AM CDT Wed Jun 5 2024Northwest flow continues to prevail across the forecast area through Thursday. A shortwave responsible for yesterday evenings MCS will continue to gradually move off to the east. Another more potent shortwave exists across the ArkLaTex region this morning and will approach the forecast area this evening into tonight. An ongoing MCS in the ArkLaTex area will likely continue east-southeast through today. Similar to the past few days, models are quite variable on the track and strength of this feature. Even if the MCS fully decays, it's possible to see this come back to life during the day into evening given ample forcing and strong CAPE. The main limiting factor for any well organized severe potential remains weak deep layer shear. At a minimum anticipate the usual afternoon into evening showers and storms across the area both today and Thursday, with potential for heavy rainfall, frequent lightning, and gusty winds with any storms.Today and Thursday will feature high temperatures in the upper 80's to lower 90's. Overnight lows will be in the upper 60's to lower 70's. A Moderate risk of rip currents exists today through Thursday before dropping back to a low risk Thursday evening.MM/25&&.SHORT TERM...(Thursday night through Friday night)Issued at 507 AM CDT Wed Jun 5 2024Upper low over the Great Lakes region Thursday night will driftslightly to the east-northeast through Friday night. Resultantupper troughing will persist along the CONUS east coast. This pattern will allow a weak cold front to drop south across the area on Friday, with somewhat drier air behind the front. With theexpected lower dewpoints and reduced deep layer moisture, rain chances will generally be lower than earlier in the week. A slightchance of showers and a few storms will be lingering near the coast on Thursday night, but this pattern will allow a weak cold front to drop south across the area on Friday, with a somewhat drier surface high pressure area building in and with minimal rainchances (mainly coastal) through Friday night. Thursday night lows will range from the upper 60s and lower 70s inland to the midand upper 70s closer to and along the coast, but cool slightly onFriday night in the wake of the front, ranging from the lower 60swell inland to the lower 70s down toward the coast. Highs on Friday are expected to be in the upper 80s and lower 90s across the entire area. DS/12 &&.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Tuesday)Issued at 507 AM CDT Wed Jun 5 2024Surface high pressure and northwesterly flow flow aloft is expected Saturday with continued low rain chances. The northwesterlyflow continues into the early part of next week, but becomes moreactive with regard to shortwave energy aloft, which will bringanother cold front south across the area by Monday night intoTuesday. As a result, rain chances increase late Sunday through Tuesday, when scattered showers and thunderstorms return to theforecast. Daytime highs Saturday and Sunday will mainly be in theupper 80s and lower 90s, but some mid 90s possible over inlandareas areas on Sunday. Slightly cooler daytime highs are expectedMonday and Tuesday with the increased rain chances, ranging mainlyin the mid and upper 80s. Nighttime lows should be in the min/upper60s to lower 70s Saturday and Sunday nights, slightly cooler inthe low to mid 60s inland and lower 70s coastal on Monday night. DS/12&&.MARINE...Issued at 507 AM CDT Wed Jun 5 2024No significant marine impacts expected through the weekend. A light to occasionally moderate onshore flow prevails before becoming westerly for Thursday and Friday. Light to moderate onshore flow returns by Sunday. MM/25&&.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...Mobile 89 73 89 71 94 68 91 72 / 20 40 70 10 10 0 10 0 Pensacola 87 76 87 74 92 70 90 74 / 20 40 70 20 20 10 10 10 Destin 86 76 87 76 90 72 89 75 / 20 40 70 20 20 10 10 10 Evergreen 91 70 89 69 92 63 92 67 / 30 50 70 10 10 0 0 10 Waynesboro 91 69 89 68 92 63 92 68 / 60 60 60 10 10 0 10 10 Camden 90 69 87 68 89 62 90 67 / 50 60 70 10 0 0 0 10 Crestview 91 71 89 69 94 63 93 67 / 20 30 70 10 10 0 0 10 &&.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...AL...None.FL...None.MS...None.GM...None.&&$$This product is also available on the web at:www.weather.gov/mob
