IWX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Mar 8, 2:59 AM EST463
FXUS63 KIWX 080759
AFDIWX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
259 AM EST Sat Mar 8 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Above normal temperatures expected starting Sunday and
persisting through the upcoming week.
- 2 weak fronts are expected Tuesday and again Wed night into
Thursday with the main impacts being brief temperature drops
(still remaining above near/above normal).
- Best chance for measurable rainfall arrives at the end of the
forecast period, but uncertainty remains in timing and amounts
of rainfall.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 258 AM EST Sat Mar 8 2025
Overall pattern finally shifting to much warmer in the coming days
as the upper level flow de-amplifies and becomes semi zonal well
into next week. A series of waves pass both south and north of the
area Tuesday and again Wed night into Thursday. Some temperatures
fluctuations are expected with each of these features, but a lack of
moisture should limit any precip chances.
Much as we saw with the last brief warmup, the increasing March sun
angle should allow for increased mixing and subsequent chances for
overperforming from somewhat cold biased guidance. Collaboration
with surrounding offices resulted in an increase of at least a few
degrees from NBM forecasted highs both Sunday and Monday (50s and
even 60s, especially Monday)
Models generally agree on a weak northern stream wave passing north
of the area with the associated cold front arriving Tuesday. The
only noticeable impacts will be a temporary lowering of 850 mb temps
that will "cool off" highs moreso into the upper 40s to mid 50s
(still above normal) into Wednesday.
Models continuing to converge on a mainly dry solution Wed night
into Thursday as decent southern stream and weaker northern stream
waves never quite phase to help draw up at least some limited gulf
moisture. GFS and to a lesser extent the LREF still suggesting some
light QPF especially Thursday, but lack of strong phasing would seem
to point towards drier solutions. Maintained some slgt chc pops Wed
night into Thursday.
A more active setup commences for the next weekend (on the edge of
the current forecast period) as a much deeper trough takes shape
across the Four Corners area later this week with rapid cyclogenesis
likely occurring. The resultant low is likely to remain well west of
the region, but an influx of gulf moisture and even warmer
temperatures (well into the 60s and maybe some 70s) appears in
store. A lot of finer details will remain to be sorted out in the
coming days, but this is most likely the best chance for measurable
precip, possibly including some thunderstorms, for the upcoming
period.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1235 AM EST Sat Mar 8 2025
Challenging aviation forecast tonight with CAA and residual
boundary layer moisture supporting areas of fog and stratus but
this is not widespread given some dry air advection as well.
Ceilings and visibilities will likely vary significantly through
the early morning but the general trend will be toward improving
conditions. VFR expected by 12Z at both terminals and residual
clouds will scatter out entirely by the late morning. Rest of
the forecast is very quiet with clear skies and light W/SW
winds.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...None.
OH...None.
MI...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Fisher
AVIATION...AGD
Source:
IWX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Mar 8, 2:59 AM EST---------------
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