JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Mar 10, 2:46 PM EDT444
FXUS63 KJKL 101846
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
246 PM EDT Mon Mar 10 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- A notable warming trend continues through mid-week.
- Well above normal temperatures, about 15 to 20+ degrees above
normal, are expected from Tuesday through Saturday.
- Low relative humidity and an increase in winds could result in
near critical fire weather conditions Tue and/or Wed afternoons.
Winds also could be gusty with rather low relative humidity for
Friday.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1242 PM EDT MON MAR 10 2025
High clouds have slowed the diurnal temperature climb in southeast
Kentucky during the morning. Clouds are thinning now, and a faster
rise should occur. However, a full recovery may not occur and
highs could be a slightly below where they would have been
otherwise.
UPDATE Issued at 721 AM EDT MON MAR 10 2025
No substantive changes were needed in the morning update.
Temperatures have dipped into the 20s and 30s across most of the
area this morning.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 402 AM EDT MON MAR 10 2025
Clear skies prevail this morning with notable ridge-valley
temperature splits--upper 30s to mid 40s ridges and mid to upper
20s sheltered valleys. The latest surface analysis shows that a
surface high pressure ridge over the Kentucky Coalfields forms a
bridge between a high pressure center near/over Bermuda and
another surface ridge over northern Mexico. To our south, an area
of low pressure is passing along the Florida Panhandle, but any
associated precipitation remains well to our south. In fact, the
only impact from this system on our weather is a few wispy high
clouds drifting into far southeastern Kentucky along the northern
fringe of the system's upper level moisture field. That moisture
is not noted at the surface however with dew points generally in
the 10s at locations that have remained mixed and in the 20s
where decoupling has allowed for modest moisture recoveries.
The low-levels will remain very dry through the short-term as the
aforementioned storm system scoots to along the Carolinas this
evening and then off into the Western Atlantic late tonight and
Tuesday. In its wake, high pressure will scoot along the Gulf
Coast while west to southwest flow along its northern periphery
continuing to be advect very dry air into the Commonwealth from
the Southwestern CONUS. A shortwave trough skimming through the
northern CONUS will cause a cold front to drop toward the Ohio
River and tighten the surface pressure gradient by Tuesday
afternoon but that front's southward progress stalls due to
faltering support.
In sensible terms, look for a warmer but still dry Monday under
nearly full sun. High temperatures are forecast to reach the mid to
upper 60s while humidity values dip back into the 15 to 20 percent
range for most. Winds will remain light generally from the north to
west at around 5 mph or less. Another night of ridge-valley
temperatures splits is ahead tonight as temperatures dip into the
low 30s sheltered valleys to mid 40s thermal belt ridges/slopes.
Looking ahead to Tuesday, temperatures moderating to the 8 to 10C
range at 850 mb should support highs in the lower to middle 70s in
most locations under nearly full sunshine and deep mixing.
Meanwhile, dew points dipping back to near 30F should once again
support relative humidity values falling to between 15 and 25
percent across most of the area. Southwesterly winds will be
stronger ahead of the approaching cold front, generally 5 to 10 mph
with gusts of 10 to 20 mph for locations east of an imaginary line
from Manchester-to-Jackson-to-Sandy Hook. West to that line, winds
could be in the 10 to 15 mph range with gusts of 20 to 25 mph, as
per GFS BUFKIT mixed layer momentum transfer. The 10/00z HREF
joint relative humidity and wind probabilities do show some a
smattering of points with some chance (under 30%) of meeting Red
Flag Warning Criteria. Due moist biases of several members, real
probabilities are likely higher and there is potential for a few
locations near and west of the Pottsville Escarpment to briefly
meet or exceed critical fire weather thresholds.
Due to a lack of vegetation and strong sensible heating, a blend
of the NBM 5th percentile and HRRR was favored for dew points
while daytime maximum temperatures were a blend of NBM 75th
percentile and bias-corrected high-resolution data. The NBM formed
the basis of the other core weather elements though topographical
adjustments of winds, wind gusts, nighttime temperatures and dew
points were made to account for thermal belt ridges and sheltered
valleys.
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 243 PM EDT MON MAR 10 2025
Main concerns in the long term are with elevated to near-critical
fire weather Wednesday and possibly Friday afternoons, in addition
to a potential severe weather threat Saturday, especially the
latter half of Saturday, across eastern Kentucky.
To begin the period, a dry air mass will continue to reside for one
more day across eastern Kentucky under zonal flow ahead of a mid-
level low ejecting east across Texas toward the Lower Mississippi
River Valley. Ahead of this system, winds near the surface will
increase in the afternoon to around 10 mph with gusts 15 to 20 mph,
which combined with minimum afternoon RH values in the 20 to 25
percent range will cause elevated to near-critical fire weather
concerns.
This upper system will weaken considerably by Thursday as it moves
east across the Tennessee River Valley, with shower activity (and a
possibly a thunderstorm or two) diminishing and dissipating as it
approaches the Interstate 75 corridor in the late afternoon and
early evening.
Attention then turns to Friday and the weekend, as a powerful storm
system ejects northeast from the Southwest US toward southern
Canada. This system will have an impressive and large wind field
owing to unusually low surface pressure. There are concerns for
Friday with regards to near-critical fire weather conditions as
strong south to southeast surface flow will cause downslope
compressional warming along and downwind of the mountains along the
Virginia border. The big question will be the strength of the winds,
which right now look to be the inhibiting factor for reaching
fire weather warning criteria, with gusts of 15 to 25 mph and
surface wind speeds of around 10 mph. Nevertheless, this will be
something to monitor.
Next concern will be the potential for convection late Friday night
through early Sunday. First round of convection Friday night will
likely be significantly weakening as it moves into eastern Kentucky
late Friday night into early Saturday, but better upper support and
instability arrive late Saturday into early Sunday as good shear and
at least sufficient instability move into the area. The SPC has the
area in a Slight Risk for severe thunderstorms Saturday and Saturday
night, and this seems reasonable given the upper-level environment
and locations of jet streaks in the lower and middle levels of the
atmosphere.
Despite the cold frontal passage Saturday night, mild temperatures
stick around through Sunday as southwesterly flow aloft persists
ahead of the lagging upper level trough passage Sunday night.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1242 PM EDT MON MAR 10 2025
VFR conditions with light winds and mainly clear skies will
prevail through the period.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...HAL/GEERTSON
SHORT TERM...GEERTSON
LONG TERM...CMC
AVIATION...HAL
Source:
JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Mar 10, 2:46 PM EDT---------------
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