BOX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Mar 7, 12:35 PM EST688
FXUS61 KBOX 071735
AFDBOX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
1235 PM EST Fri Mar 7 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Mostly sunny conditions are expected today but with strong wind
gusts between 45 to 60 mph. Although wind gusts ease somewhat
tonight, another round of very gusty to strong winds is
anticipated for Saturday. Still breezy and cool on Sunday
before mild and mainly dry conditions set in for next week. It
is a very dry period with no significant precipitation events at
least through the next five days.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
1030 AM Update:
Skies have cleared across the region aside from some scattered
mid-level clouds in western MA and CT. Strong gusts continue to
be reported, including a 62 mph gust at the Worcester Airport
earlier today. Forecast is still on track.
615 AM Update:
As anticipated now that the sun is out and deeper mixing is
starting, many areas are now seeing gusts of at least 40-45 mph.
There are also a greater number of sites which are seeing gusts
of 50+ MPH with a spike in reported power outages. The strong
northwest wind gusts 45 to 60 mph will continue thru the mid-
afternoon before gust speeds start to lighten up some with
sundown. All these trends handled pretty well in going forecast
on the whole, so no major change needed.
Previous discussion:
Key Messages:
* Very windy, with strong to damaging northwest wind gusts. Gusts 45-
60 mph from sunrise to midafternoon, highest in the terrain,
decreasing toward sundown to around 25-40 mph. High Wind
Warnings/Wind Advisories continue.
* Dry with highs in the mid 30s to low 40s, but will feel like the
20s with the winds.
Details:
984 mb gale low was centered over the Gulf of Maine early this
morning, creating a tight pressure gradient across much of the
Northeast states. That has in part led to a rather windy evening
with sustained wind speeds in the 15-25 mph range; observed
northwest wind gusts are more commonly in the 35 to 45 mph range,
although recently some gusts 55-60 mph have been reported in the
higher terrain of the Berkshires, with a 53 kt/60 mph gust
measured at Pittsfield. Despite the presence of a deep upper
trough and cold advection associated with it, there's still been
quite a bit of cloud cover around and that seems to have
tempered some of the stronger gusts to this point in the
overnight. Rather chilly given the windy conditions with current
temps in the low to mid 30s, quite a contrast compared to 24
hours ago!
Forecast overall is little changed with the main story for
today being strong to locally damaging northwest wind gusts.
High Wind Warnings and Wind Advisories issued yesterday continue
with no changes in the status of either. We expect the existing
cloud cover to begin to erode as we move towards sunrise -
there has been some decreasing trends of recent in the cloud
cover. As that occurs, while mixing depth is still on the
shallow side to around 900 mb, forecast models remain consistent
in showing a deepening mixed layer up to about 825 mb, given
the cold air aloft and full sun allowing for modest warming. We
should be able to draw down stronger winds aloft given this
deeper mixing, and with an 850 mb jetstreak of 60- 65 kt, most
areas should see increasing gust speeds into the 45-60 mph range
after sunrise, then continuing into the midafternoon hours. So
far, wind-related damage reports have been sporadic, but we
expect some wind damage to continue to be reported as not only
will the speeds be increasing, but the frequency of stronger
gusts should also be on the upswing too. Moving into the mid to
late afternoon, it still will be rather windy, but the 850mb jet
weakens and to around 40-50 kt and mixing heights start to fall
near sundown. So all told, expect strengthening northwest gusts
to around 45-60 mph range, highest in the terrain, then gusts
ease somewhat (at least, not as strong) as we move closer to
sundown.
Other than the gusty conditions, expect the day to be dry,
although will start to see some high clouds arrive very late in
the day. Highs in the mid 30s to low to mid 40s today, which are
around seasonable levels, but it will feel like the 20s outside
with the winds and gusts.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
325 AM Update:
Key Messages:
* Still breezy tonight but gusts not as strong (25-40 mph).
Increasing canopy of midlevel clouds but dry weather prevails.
* Sunny and very dry Saturday, with gusty to strong winds again
into the 35-50 mph range. Possible wind headlines but it is
more borderline than today.
Details:
Tonight:
Still a bit on the breezy side tonight, but the WNW wind gusts
should be quite a bit less with a weaker low level jet. Expect gusts
to be more in the 25-40 mph range, on the higher end of that range
near the higher terrain. A shearing-out, weak-amplitude shortwave
trough now over the Midwest will be racing eastward to the south of
Southern New England overnight tonight. Expect cloud cover to again
increase, but will be more mid to high clouds with dry weather.
Because of the continued breezy conditions and the cloud cover, I
opted to bring low temps up by a few degrees into the mid 20s to
lower 30s. Best chance at seeing mid 20s lows across northern MA
away from the greatest concentration of midlevel clouds.
Saturday:
Weak low pressure wave moves to our southeast well offshore early
Sat AM, which will allow for decresaing cloudiness and increasing
sun to start the weekend. A reinforcing shot of colder air from the
north and west will again promote deep mixing to around 850 mb, and
with an increasing low-level jet again at that level to around 50 kt
during the late morning to late afternoon hrs, expect a secondary
period of gusty to perhaps strong northwest winds. NW gusts should
top out around 35 to 45 mph, with a few gusts up to 50 mph possible.
It's really borderline Wind Advisory gusts, so didn't opt to add or
extend the existing wind headlines into Sat, but it could be
necessary in later updates especially if the low level jet
strengthens more and we get stronger pressure rises. The other
aspect to Sat is that if you do have outdoor plans in the gusty
conditions, break out the lip balm because it will be extremely dry;
expect sharp falls in dewpoint temps into the single digits,
with PWAT values progged around 0.15". Forecast relative
humidities into the 25 percent range. Highs in the upper 30s to
low/mid 40s.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Sunday:
Pressure gradient begins to relax when high pressure passes to the
south while a weak shortwave aloft moves through. With a lack of
deep layer moisture and better forcing, not expecting anything more
than just some increased cloud cover. It will still be breezy
Sunday as 850mb winds remain around 30 to 35 knots. With more clouds
than the sun, mixing may not be able to reach the 850mb layer.
Bufkit soundings still show 25-30 knot gusts at the top of the mixed
layer and will likely mix down under continued westerly flow. Still
under a cooler airmass, high temps on Sunday stay in the low to mid-
40s.
Next Week:
With zonal flow and the jet stream to the south, storm tracks stay
well south, leaving SNE mainly dry. Warming trend begins on Monday
as highs warm into the low 50s. High temperatures Tuesday through
Thursday have the potential to warm into the low 60s, especially
under westerly flow and the higher March Sun angle. However, NBM
does show a significant spread of 10-15 degrees Tuesday through
Thursday, meaning more clouds could keep temps in the 50s vs the
60s.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Forecast Confidence Levels:
Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
18z TAF Update:
This Afternoon and Tonight: High confidence.
VFR. WNW winds will continue to gust between 40 and 50 knots.
The strongest gusts will more often be in the higher terrain,
but terminals in lower elevation areas have also reported gusts
to 50 knots or higher. Winds only diminish slightly tonight with
gusts at 25 to 35 knots.
Saturday: High confidence.
VFR. NW gusts again increase on Sat mid morning to 30-40 knots.
KBOS TAF...High confidence in TAF.
KBDL TAF...High confidence in TAF.
Outlook /Saturday Night through Tuesday/...
Saturday Night: VFR. Strong winds with local gusts up to 40 kt.
Sunday: VFR. Windy with gusts up to 30 kt.
Sunday Night through Monday: VFR. Breezy.
Monday Night: VFR.
Tuesday: VFR. Breezy.
&&
.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels:
Low - less than 30 percent.
Medium - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
** Prolonged period of gale force gusts are expected to
continue into Saturday, and could linger into Saturday night.**
Today through Saturday: High confidence.
Strong gale force NW wind gusts are expected to continue today
with gusts 40-45 kt (with an occasional gust to near storm-force
possible). NW wind gusts to subside to around 30-35 kt tonight
(highest northern waters), but will then increase on Saturday to
around 35-40 kt. Rough seas of 7-12 ft, which will be slow to
recede as we move into tonight and Saturday. Dry weather
prevails.
Outlook /Saturday Night through Tuesday/...
Saturday Night: Low risk for gale force winds with gusts up to
35 kt. Rough seas up to 10 ft.
Sunday: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts
up to 30 kt. Local rough seas.
Sunday Night through Monday: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of
seas approaching 5 ft.
Monday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching
5 ft.
Tuesday: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up
to 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...Wind Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for CTZ002>004.
MA...Wind Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for MAZ003-005>007-
010-011-013>024.
High Wind Warning until 7 PM EST this evening for MAZ002-004-
008-009-012-026.
RI...Wind Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for RIZ001>008.
MARINE...Gale Warning until 7 PM EST Saturday for ANZ230>237-250-251-
254>256.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Loconto/KP
NEAR TERM...Loconto/Hrencecin
SHORT TERM...Loconto
LONG TERM...KP
AVIATION...Loconto/Hrencecin/KP
MARINE...Loconto/KP
Source:
BOX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Mar 7, 12:35 PM EST----------------
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