IWX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Mar 7, 5:45 AM EST651
FXUS63 KIWX 071045
AFDIWX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
545 AM EST Fri Mar 7 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- A mix of rain and snow arrives today. Minor snow accumulations
are possible, mainly north of the Toll Road. Travel impacts
are not expected at this time.
- Temperatures will trend above to well above normal starting
Sunday and persisting into next weekend.
- Chance for a few showers Wednesday into Wednesday evening.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 252 AM EST Fri Mar 7 2025
Area of increasing isentropic lift noted upstream from central
IA into NW IL courtesy of an approaching upper level wave. A
narrow band of precipitation exists in the same general area,
with snow observed across IA and rain into central IL. While
lift will increase across western areas this morning,
overall trend for measurable precip appears to be delayed by at
least a few hours as lower levels take a bit more time to
saturate and deeper lift to arrive. This complicates any snow
accumulation potential with air and ground temperatures likely
to be above freezing as well wet bulb temps. In addition, model
trend has been for general west to east oriented meso band to
exist further north, with any limited snow accumulation
potential existing along/north of the toll road. All these
factors result in a lowering of overall accumulations, with max
at best being a half inch or less. If a more significant band
can setup prior to warmer wet bulb temps arriving, could see a
quick inch of snow in a few locations, but overall not looking
good for this to occur.
Any precipitation quickly exits this evening, starting what
looks like an semi extended period of little or no precipitation
as upper level ridging begins to take shape. A weak front passes
through Wednesday afternoon and evening, but looks like it will
most likely be dry as any gulf moisture will be cut off. Some
lingering pops still exist in this period, but given expected
continued "dry" trend, suspect pops may be completely removed in
the coming days.
Most noticeable will be a dramatic increase in temperatures
starting Sunday with highs from the upper 50s to well into the
60s.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 545 AM EST Fri Mar 7 2025
Shortwave still on track to provide a period of rain and snow
later today. Primary change was to push back timing slightly and
hold ceilings lower at KFWA this evening. Best chance of snow
and IFR (brief LIFR) conditions remains at KSBN roughly 21-03Z
where better convergence/fgen reside. Much lower confidence in
precip amounts and types at KFWA but a period of snow and IFR
ceilings is still expected this evening. Improvement expected
after 06Z but some stratus could linger into Sat morning,
particularly at KFWA.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...None.
OH...None.
MI...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Fisher
AVIATION...AGD
Source:
IWX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Mar 7, 5:45 AM EST---------------
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