LIX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Mar 6, 2:44 AM CST ...NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...157
FXUS64 KLIX 060844
AFDLIX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
244 AM CST Thu Mar 6 2025
...NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...
.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Friday)
Issued at 243 AM CST Thu Mar 6 2025
A chilly start across the region this morning as strong
radiational cooling is taking place, especially along and north of
I10/12 corridor where the winds have became calm overnight.
Aloft, dry northwesterly flow is over the region and at the
surface, high pressure will continue to reside over our region
today, which should lead to a mostly sunny day across the CWFA.
Temperatures will still be right around or perhaps a degree or two
below average. The pattern begins to change overnight tonight and
during the day on Friday. The surface high moves east allowing
for low level southerly flow to develop. This should bring
moisture back to the region. Upper level heights increase, so with
the return flow and higher heights, expect a warming trend to
take place with most of us reaching the 70s tomorrow afternoon.
(Frye)
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 243 AM CST Thu Mar 6 2025
A weak front is forecast to move southward toward our region late
Friday and into the day on Saturday. Low level moisture will
continue to increase a bit ahead of the front, but as the front
stalls along the coast, think isentropic upglide will lead to our
next chance of measurable precip on Saturday areawide. A surface
low is projected to develop near the mouth of the Sabine River.
The surface feature is forecast to ride along the front again
helping with what looks to be a rather wet Saturday, especially as
a stronger H5 trough moves east out of the Red River Valley and
into the midsouth and interacts with the surface features.
Given the nature of the setup, widespread severe looks unlikely as
much of the forecast area will not be within the warm
sector...mostly. Southern most locations in southeast Louisiana
may sneak in so we would need to watch this. Within the
stratiform shield to the north, there could be some elevated
instability and with the upper levels cooling, there could be some
small hail potential in any stronger updraft.
Any lingering shower activity on Sunday will quickly come to an
end as the surface low/front and parent trough continues quickly
downstream into the western Atlantic. Going into the next
workweek, high pressure at the surface spreads into the region
behind the departing weekend system. The upper levels quickly
transition from a more progressive pattern back to an active
southwesterly flow aloft. This will help keep temperatures right
at or just above average for early March. Finally, by Wednesday
we'll be watching an upper level trough slide east over the
midsouth. At this juncture, the QPF signal within the globals
isn't strong and it appears most of the better lift will be to our
north, but there will be a week to monitor this potential system.
Overall, the confidence within the globals is higher than average
through the medium range. (Frye)
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1139 PM CST Wed Mar 5 2025
VFR conditions are expected to prevail throughout the forecast
period today. Winds continue to relax as the surface high builds
into the area. LLWS will be a concern for ASD, HDC, MCB, and GPT
until the high pressure filters in around sunrise. After that, no
further impacts are expected for this cycle. (JZ)
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 243 AM CST Thu Mar 6 2025
Ongoing strong winds across the local waters should continue until
around daybreak or so. At this point, high pressure moves into the
region, which will allow winds and seas to improve and become more
favorable today. As the high moves east later tonight and on the
day Friday, a surface return flow will allow southerly surface
winds to increase once again out ahead of our next front due into
the region this weekend. As this feature (low pressure and surface
front) departs on Sunday, the southerly flow switches to a more
northwesterly flow and increases. Additional cautionary headlines
or even SCAs for the open waters will likely be necessary late in
the weekend and into the start of the new workweek. (Frye)
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB 64 43 76 58 / 0 0 0 10
BTR 67 46 78 62 / 0 0 0 10
ASD 66 48 77 62 / 0 0 0 10
MSY 64 51 77 64 / 0 0 0 10
GPT 65 49 71 61 / 0 0 0 20
PQL 66 45 73 61 / 0 0 0 20
&&
.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM CST early this morning for
GMZ530-532-534-536-538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577.
MS...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM CST early this morning for
GMZ532-534-536-538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...RDF
LONG TERM....RDF
AVIATION...JZ
MARINE...RDF
Source:
LIX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Mar 6, 2:44 AM CST ...NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...---------------
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