LMK issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Mar 7, 6:26 AM EST ...Updated Aviation Discussion...226
FXUS63 KLMK 071126
AFDLMK
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
626 AM EST Fri Mar 7 2025
...Updated Aviation Discussion...
.KEY MESSAGES...
* Mainly dry and cloudy through this afternoon with temperatures
warming into the 50s. Occasional light rain or drizzle possible
this evening and tonight.
* Warming trend begins Sunday and continues into next week. Highs in
the 60s on Monday and 70s on Tuesday.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 327 AM EST Fri Mar 7 2025
Conditions are cool, dry, and mostly cloudy early this morning.
Winds are light due to sfc high pressure in place. Temperatures are
hovering in the upper 20s to mid 30s. Strong mid-level WAA is noted
across the eastern Plains and into IA/MO/IL ahead of a shortwave
trough currently over KS/NE. A warm advection wing of precipitation
is noted on regional radar, stretching southeast through IL and
southwestern IN. Near the southeastern tip of this band (currently
over the Lower Wabash), this is mostly just virga. A significant
wedge of dry low-level air will evaporate much of this activity as
it spreads east across southern IN and portions of central KY
through mid-morning. A few snowflakes could reach the ground between
4-9 AM. Otherwise, expect dry, chilly, and cloudy conditions to
continue this morning.
At the surface, low pressure is spinning across Kansas this morning.
From mid-morning today, this low is forecast to track roughly along
a MCI to STL line while gradually weakening. Low-level southerly
flow will increase, with a 40-45 kt SW LLJ overspreading central and
southern KY this afternoon. We will stay mainly dry due to very
limited moisture. Southerly winds will increase to 10-15 mph, with
brief gusts to 20-25 mph in the afternoon. Temperatures are forecast
to warm into the 50s, perhaps touching 60 degrees in southern KY.
This evening into tonight, the low will continue ESE across Kentucky
with a cold front getting pulled southeast through the area early
Saturday morning. Occasional/patchy light rain or drizzle will be
possible during this time. Moisture depth is still fairly shallow,
but most areas should pick up at least a couple hundredths of an
inch. Around a tenth of an inch looks possible across southeastern
Indiana and the KY Bluegrass.
Low-level winds veer northerly behind the cold front early Saturday
morning. Temperatures will drop into the 35-45 degree range (coolest
north of I-64 and warmest along the TN border).
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 327 AM EST Fri Mar 7 2025
Saturday morning, as a cold front pushes farther southeast of the
area, any remaining light precipitation will come to an end, most
likely this would be over the Lake Cumberland area, and with
northwest flow stretching surface high pressure from the Central
Plains into the Lower Ohio Valley, skies will quickly clear. Cold
air advection on north to northwest winds are expected to limit
highs to the upper 40s to mid 50s, which isn't too far from normal.
By Saturday night, the CWA will see a split pattern with northwest
flow likely remaining over Indiana and off to the northeast and a
closed low embedded in an upper trough over northern Texas sliding
towards the Lower Mississippi Valley. This upper low will produce
rain which should remain south of Kentucky, but clouds from the
system are expected to move north over Kentucky toward the Ohio
River, covering most of Kentucky by Sunday morning.
Sunday through Wednesday will see upper ridging and surface high
pressure push into the Lower Ohio Valley, resulting in sunny skies.
Warm air advection will remain light but begin to build on Monday as
the surface ridge begins to push east of the region, and as the
pressure gradient strengthens against low pressure to the northwest,
southwest winds will usher in warmer temperatures into midweek.
Highs beginning in the mid to upper 50s to near 60 on Sunday are
expected to warm into the low 70s by Wednesday.
By Wednesday night into Thursday, a small upper low riding east on
mostly zonal flow will likely develop a small system which is
expected to pass near the CWA. This could bring light showers to
southern Indiana and central Kentucky. Model soundings show a
very stable column, so this would just fall as rain.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 625 AM EST Fri Mar 7 2025
High confidence in VFR conditions through 00Z Saturday. Mid-level
ceilings have dipped below 10 kft and even briefly below 5 kft early
this morning at HNB/SDF. Warm advection wing on radar is mostly
virga this morning, but a few snowflakes could reach the ground at
SDF or LEX through 13-14Z.
Winds will veer southerly today and increase this afternoon as an
area of low pressure spins east across Missouri. There is a slight
chance for spotty light rain this afternoon and evening, but
coverage will likely be too low to include a mention at this time.
Better chance for light rain will be after 02Z Saturday at
SDF/LEX/RGA. Ceilings will drop to low-end MVFR early Saturday
morning as a cold front sinks through the region. Winds will veer
northerly behind the front.
&&
.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...None.
IN...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...EBW
LONG TERM...KDW
AVIATION...EBW
Source:
LMK issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Mar 7, 6:26 AM EST ...Updated Aviation Discussion...---------------
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