JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Mar 5, 10:47 AM EST839
FXUS63 KJKL 051547
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
1047 AM EST Wed Mar 5 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Wind gusts as high as 40 to 50 mph will return this morning and
continue through the afternoon and then slacken this evening.
- Showers return from midday into the afternoon. These should mix
with and change to snow tonight, with generally minor
accumulations possible.
- A dusting of snow is possible tonight to Thu morning for most
areas, with 1 inch possible at elevations of 1500 to 2500 feet
and 1 to 3 inches above 2500 feet (Harlan and Letcher counties).
- Milder temperatures return to finish the week, along with a good
potential of more rain for most of the area.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1046 AM EST WED MAR 5 2025
Made minor updates to temperatures and sky cover based on obs and
latest model runs. The band of showers in central KY is moving
east and looks close to being on target with the likely POP
timing already in the forecast. Winds are picking up as expected,
and gusts around advisory threshold are still expected midday and
early afternoon.
UPDATE Issued at 805 AM EST WED MAR 5 2025
Showers near the first frontal zone has move east of eastern KY as
a dry slot is working across portions of the Southern
Appalachians/eastern and central KY north into parts of western
OH. Further west, showers are on the regional radar mosaic both
along and in advance as well as behind the secondary cold front
working across western KY. Current wind gusts are generally sub
advisory criteria, however, these should pick up over the next
couple of hours with heating and mixing with lapse rates likely
enhanced by colder air moving in aloft. Also, recent KJKL VWP is
nearly unidirectional from the sfc to 5kft MSL with 35KT winds at
3kft MSL, 40KT at 4kft MSL, and 45KT at 5kft MSL. Thus, higher
momentum is present to bring increasing gusts as the morning
progresses with these continuing into the afternoon as the
secondary front nears. Minor pop adjustments were made over the
next couple of hours based on recent radar and high resolution
guidance as well as observation trends.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 535 AM EST WED MAR 5 2025
Early this morning, an upper level low was centered along the MS
River near the MO and IL border with an associated trough south
through the MS Valley to the Gulf. A lead shortwave trough
extending from western OH to near the I 75 corridor to the
Southern Appalachians was moving across the region. The upper
level trough in the MS Valley and portions of the central and
eastern Conus was located in between ridging that extended from
the Caribbean into the western Atlantic and another ridge that
extended from the Pacific across western Mexico to portions of
the Great Basin and Rockies with the ridge axis nearing the
northern Rockies to Four Corners regions. At the surface, an
occluded sfc low was also located near or just east of the MO and
IL border with an occluded front located near or at the back edge
of an area of showers crossing eastern KY. A secondary cold front
was upstream from the mid to lower MS Valleys and was entering the
lower OH Valley at present. Near and behind this boundary, a lull
in wind gusts has been observed. However, a dry slot wrapping
around the low was present from the Gulf coast states across
portions of middle TN and the Cumberland Plateau to central and
northern KY to eastern IN and western OH. 45 to 55KT 850 mb winds
remain present from the dry slot west to the mid MS Valley region.
Today and tonight, the upper level low will meander to the western
to central Great Lakes through this evening and then to the
eastern Great Lakes tonight. Meanwhile, the 500 mb trough axis
will gradually approach eastern KY with at least a couple of
weaker shortwave rotating around the upper low and through this
trough. The first approaches later this morning, with another late
this afternoon and evening and yet another overnight tonight. The
dry slot will cross the western and central portions of the area
through early afternoon, moving east of eastern KY around mid
afternoon. Within the dry slot, 00Z HREF the next maximum of 850
Mb winds 40 to 50KT+ near the I-75 corridor near sunrise and then
shifting east, though magnitudes decrease. A core of 700 mb winds
per the 00Z HREF in the 50 to 55KT range is progged to work across
the area this morning into the early afternoon. Mixing with
daytime heating within the dry slot and as lapse rates gradually
increase with cooling aloft will result in mixing of some of this
momentum to the surface by mid morning to midday into the
afternoon. Gusts from the south to southwest, at least peak gusts
should reach the 40 to 45 mph range for most. A few locations
could pick up slightly higher gusts, especially within showers
that should return as the first shortwave crosses the area and the
secondary cold front arrives later this morning and into the
afternoon. The wind advisory remains valid for all areas and
remains in effect through 7 PM this evening.
As the next two shortwave troughs cross the area and temperatures
cool aloft, snow showers should persist with low to mid level
moisture forecast to be present. This moisture should diminish
behind the last shortwave late tonight and into Thursday morning.
The coolest temperatures aloft at 850 mb for instance will move
east of the area through Thursday with warm advection aloft by
midday to the afternoon, which should lead to snow showers
transitioning to flurries and then ending form west to east
Thursday morning to around midday.
Winds should gradually slacken during the evening, though
conditions will remain a bit breezy as the next additional
shortwaves cross the area and interact with low to mid level
warp around moisture. 850 mb temperatures per 00Z HREF during the
day today should fall from initial values in the 4C west to 9C
east range near dawn to -1C east to around -6C west range near
sunset. Further cooling will occur overnight with 850 mb
temperatures per 00Z HREF falling to the -8C to -10C range late
tonight. This should result in showers changing from rain to snow
from the highest elevations above 3500 feet around or possibly
prior to sunset down to lower elevations and from west to east
for the remainder of the evening into the overnight hours. Winds
will generally be westerly upslope flow and a possible slight max
in snowfall may occur near the escarpment and over the higher
elevations above 1500 feet in the southeast. By Thursday morning,
a lot of locations may pick up a dusting to quarter or half of an
an inch, with slightly more possible along the escarpment.
Locations between 1500 and 2500 feet from Pike County across far
southern portions of Floyd, Knott, Perry, Leslie, to Bell Counties
south to the VA border are expected to have the best chance of
receiving about 1 inch, if not a bit more. Locations at 2500 feet
and above should receive amounts in the 1 to 3 inch range. With
confidence increasing for accumulating snow with potential for
impacts due to cold temperatures into the 20s at or above about
the 2500 foot level, a Winter Weather Advisory was issued for
Harlan and Letcher counties in coordination with surrounding
offices for the 7 PM EST this evening to 10 AM EST on Thursday
time period.
Temperatures will rise a few degrees through midday or early
afternoon where the decrease in clouds or dry slot has the longest
residence time, particularly in the east. However, by mid to late
afternoon, temperatures will begin to drop off behind the
secondary cold front and continue dropping through tonight and
possibly for a couple hours after sunrise on Thursday when the
coldest of the airmass will be passing overhead. With the colder
airmass temperatures will be about 10 degrees below normal for
highs on Thursday.
.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 341 AM EST WED MAR 5 2025
The forecast period starts with high pressure over the area;
however; however, to the west, a system is moving off the Rockies.
Leeside cyclogenesis is expected Thursday afternoon but through the
afternoon and into the overnight hours of Thursday into Friday the
system will track across the Central Plains toward the Commonwealth.
Friday the forecast area will be under the regime of the warm sector
as the warm front is expected to be north of the Ohio River. This
will bring highs for Friday into the upper-50s to low-60s minus the
areas closer to the front being cooler than the rest of the CWA. As
the system continues to approach the region, increasing PoP will
exist late Friday evening through Saturday morning as the cold front
crosses through the CWA. Lingering upslope PoP chances will exist
along the southeastern high terrain into Saturday afternoon before
coming to an end.
At the same time the Friday/Saturday system is moving through the
region, another system is progged to develop over the heart of Texas
and eject eastward into the Deep South. Models have this system
lifting northeast toward the Carolinas by early Sunday morning and
as it does, increasing PoP across the southeastern portions of the
state will exist. Once the system begins to move off the eastern
seaboard colder air will filter in behind the system and turn
lingering upslope rain showers to snow showers before tapering off
by Sunday afternoon.
Behind the exiting system, surface high pressure will build back
into the area for the remainder of the weekend and persist through
the remainder of the forecast period. Courtesy of the surface high,
temperatures will begin to warm across the area with highs topping
out in the low to mid-70s for Tuesday and Wednesday. Also, due to
the dry airmass in place, widespread drying can and will take place
which could lead to a resurgence of localized fire weather concerns.
Overall the period will start dry but a weak cold front will brings
rain chances for late Friday into Saturday and another system will
bring another slight chance of rain and snow for Sunday before dry
weather and warm temperatures build in for the remainder of the
forecast period.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday morning)
ISSUED AT 738 AM EST WED MAR 5 2025
A brief period of somewhat lighter winds was occurring at
issuance time as the first frontal zone departs to the east of
eastern KY. However, stronger winds are present on KJKL VWP in
the 2 to 5kft AGL layer and with daytime mixing wind gusts into
the 30 to 40KT range should return at least at times by around 15Z
with these decreasing between 21Z and 00Z. Winds will also trend
from south or south southwest to the southwest as the period
begins. The winds and gusts remain the overall primary aviation
concerns during the period, though as the showers enter the area
from the west some deterioration of visibility and/or ceilings
into the MVFR range should begin near Lake Cumberland including
the KSME area between 15Z and 18Z, with these gradually spreading
to the WV border by 22Z. Further deterioration between 00Z and
12Z in showers that will gradually change from rain to snow should
result in IFR to MVFR ceilings during the last 12 hours of the
period, with visibility at briefly dropping to the IFR or MVFR
range in the heavier showers.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for KYZ044-050>052-
058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120.
Winter Weather Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 10 AM EST
Thursday for KYZ088-118.
&&
$$
UPDATE...HAL/JP
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...VORST
AVIATION...JP
Source:
JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Mar 5, 10:47 AM EST---------------
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