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612 FXUS64 KLIX 240929AFDLIXArea Forecast DiscussionNational Weather Service New Orleans LA329 AM CST Mon Feb 24 2025...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE....SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday Night)Issued at 255 AM CST Mon Feb 24 2025Water vapor imagery and upper air analysis continues to show aninteresting upper level setup across the Gulf South as two upperlevel voriticty maxima embedded within a larger positively tiltedlongwave trough gradually drift to the south over Texas andLouisiana this morning. These features will continue to slowlypush southward today and tonight and will eventually movecompletely into the Gulf by tomorrow. At the same time, a strongsurface low pressure system will continue to push through theoffshore waters today before fully pushing east of the areatonight. The end result will be a continued region of broad ascentand lingering moisture that will keep skies mostly cloudy toovercast. Some light rain showers and sprinkles will also persistthrough this afternoon before pushing further offshore tonight.The lingering cloud cover and northerly flow will also supportcooler than average temperatures with highs struggling to climbinto the low to mid 60s this afternoon. Another concern for tonight will the threat of a stratus build down fog event as lingering moisture in the low levels allow low stratus to persist. Temperatures cooling into the 40s and low 50swill deepen an inversion just off the surface and this will for that stratus build down to occur. Widespread dense fog is not expected, but reduced visibilities of 1 to 3 miles are very likelyfor the morning commute on Tuesday. Conditions will improve dramatically on Tuesday as a much drierairmass advects into the region. This drier air will be associatedwith increasing ridging and associated subsidence. Skies will rapidly clear Tuesday morning, and these clear skies will persist through Wednesday afternoon. Temperatures will also quickly modifyas a more zonal flow pattern develops in the mid and upper levels,and southerly flow takes hold on the western periphery of asurface ridge centered over Florida and the eastern Gulf. Highsshould easily warm into the low to mid 70s both Tuesday andWednesday. As dewpoints climb into the 50s, overnight lows willcorrespondingly rise by Wednesday night. Cloud cover and apotential advection fog threat will also be in the increase Wednesday night as south to southwest flow of around 10 knotsdevelops. The fog threat will be highly conditioned on watertemperature and dewpoint temperature spreads. &&.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Sunday)Issued at 255 AM CST Mon Feb 24 2025Thursday will see a fast moving front slide through the area onthe back of a digging northern stream trough diving through theeastern third of the CONUS. Fortunately, this system will havelimited moisture to tap into as it passes through the region.Instability will also be limited due to the dry air still inplace, and this will keep CAPE values below 500 J/KG Thursdayafternoon. With this in mind, the forecast calls for some isolatedshowers and an increase in cloud cover as the front moves throughthe region. The front will be well offshore by the evening hours,so conditions currently look good for evening parades and outdooractivities on Thursday. Temperatures will be near average onThursday with highs climbing to near 70. Post-front, temperaturesThursday night will dip below average into the 40s, but a freezeis not expected with this next frontal system. Another deep layer ridge will build over the area on Friday andremain in place through Sunday. The end result from this ridgingwill be very dry air over the area as noted by PWATS below half aninch and a lack of cloud development. Skies will be mostly clearthrough the period and temperatures will quickly rebound withhighs expected to rise into the 70s this weekend. The drier airwill produce a larger diurnal range, so overnight lows will easilyfall into the 40s and lower 50s each night. These values are closeto average for this time of year. Overall, decent conditions willbe in place for the weekend parades across the region. &&.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS)Issued at 255 AM CST Mon Feb 24 2025Troughing has become more elongated northeast to southwest fromPennsylvania to Texas over the last few hours, with multiple mid level centers. Light rain or drizzle has been stubbornly hanging on across most terminals, with IFR or lower ceilings at all terminals at issuance time. IFR or lower conditions now appear likely to hold on through the remainder of the night and into the late morning hours. Ceilings may lift to MVFR by midday (bases notmuch more than FL015), but those flight restrictions are likely to remain through at least late afternoon Monday. NBM probabilities indicate only about a 50 percent chance of ceilings improving to VFR by 00z Tuesday. The bad news is that if clouds dodissipate, it's likely to set up fog development beyond 06z Tuesday. If that occurs, conditions could approach field minima atsome or most terminals. Not currently carrying conditions that low at KMSY at the end of their 30 hour forecast period in this package. But it is a situation worth being aware of.&&.MARINE...Issued at 255 AM CST Mon Feb 24 2025A potent area of low pressure currently over the waters willcontinue to produce small craft conditions for much of the areathrough this evening. The low is forecast to shift further to theeast tonight, and this will allow for improving conditions to take hold as high pressure gradually moves in from the west. Thehigh will pass directly over the waters Tuesday night intoWednesday, and winds will turn much lighter and more variable overthis time period. As the high shifts to the east Wednesday nightand a light south to southwest wind develops, there may be aconcern for some advection fog to form over the waters. However,confidence is low on this occurring given the uncertainty in thewater temperature and dewpoint temperature spread that night.Thursday will see a fast moving cold front slide through thewaters, and winds will quickly shift to the northwest and increaseback into small craft range of around 20 knots by Thursday night.These rougher conditions look to be short-lived as high pressurequickly builds in and becomes centered over the waters on Fridayand Saturday resulting in lighter and more variable winds andcalmer seas. &&.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...MCB 65 44 73 46 / 20 0 0 0 BTR 64 47 72 48 / 10 0 0 0 ASD 66 49 73 49 / 20 0 0 0 MSY 62 52 70 52 / 20 0 0 0 GPT 66 50 70 50 / 30 0 0 0 PQL 67 48 71 48 / 30 0 0 0 &&.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...LA...None.GM...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for GMZ550-552- 555-557-570-572-575-577.MS...None.GM...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for GMZ552-555- 557-570-572-575-577.&&$$SHORT TERM...PGLONG TERM....PGAVIATION...PGMARINE...PG
