LMK issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jun 8, 9:36 PM EDT ...Forecast Update...122
FXUS63 KLMK 090136
AFDLMK
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
936 PM EDT Sat Jun 8 2024
...Forecast Update...
.KEY MESSAGES...
* Showers and a few thunderstorms this weekend, with extended
breaks in the rain expected. Locally heavy downpours possible
late Saturday night into early Sunday morning across western and
southern Kentucky.
* Temperatures will begin a warming trend Tuesday, with 90 degrees
a possibility by late week, especially Friday.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 936 PM EDT Sat Jun 8 2024
The forecast is on track this evening, and no changes planned at
this time. Still focusing on a couple of separate features that will
bring precipitation chances to the region overnight into tomorrow
morning. The first is a cool frontal boundary that is currently
stretching from northern IN, down through central IL, and into
southern MO. This feature will continue advancing SE tonight, with
surface convergence possibly enough of a trigger to maintain some
isolated showers as it sinks into our area. Some models show a dry
solution, others show some spotty coverage along the front. Will
keep the slight chance going, but either way not impactful stuff.
The second, and more interesting feature, is an ongoing convective
complex over southern Missouri, that is expected to slowly slide ESE
through the overnight. Our SW CWA remains the most likely area for
the northern fringes of any convective activity to impact heading
into tomorrow. However, could also see a convectively reinforced
cold pool develop, which would likely take the bulk of the activity
farther SW into TN. Like the going chance pops that cover this
threat, and see no reason to change them at this time. Regardless of
that complex, we'll still have chances for some convection to pop
across our south through the morning, until the cool frontal
boundary mentioned above makes it all the way through the region.
So, another reason to leave the chances going. Locally heavy
downpours would be the main concern for tomorrow.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 317 PM EDT Sat Jun 8 2024
Despite the radar returns across the region most of the day,
abnormally dry air in the lower levels have evaporated most light
rain before reaching the ground. Will continue to carry a low chance
for light rain, but the latest ACARS data from SDF continues to
show a rather dry airmass in the lowest 3km.
For tonight, a mid-level wave will push a cold front into the lower
Ohio Valley from the north. Weak forcing and convergence along the
front may lead to some isolated light showers north of I-64 after
midnight. However, even better moisture convergence and stronger
forcing to our west will likely fire up convection across Missouri
again tonight, moving to the east-southeast through the overnight
hours.
Still expecting the bulk of the convective cluster to track
into central Tennessee in the early morning hours, but the northern
flank of showers and embedded thunderstorms look to push through
south-central KY. Moisture pooling along the boundary will help
erode the low level dry air by tomorrow morning, which will follow
by high PWATs possibly exceeding 1.8 inches. Soundings also show
tall skinny CAPE profiles, so heavy downpours and embedded thunder
looks like a good bet for areas south of the Kentucky Parkways
tomorrow morning. To the north, light to moderates showers will be
possible, though those chances really fall off when you get north of
I-64 due to the front sagging southward by the middle of the day.
Eventually the cold will continue to surge south of our area by the
evening, and will pull the precip chances to the south with it.
While majority of the forecast area will see drier trends throughout
the day, PoPs will linger the longest across south-central
Kentucky. Eventually we'll be precip free by the evening.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 317 PM EDT Sat Jun 8 2024
First part of the week will be marked by a deep closed low over the
Canadian Maritimes, with broad upper trofiness over the eastern
CONUS. Northerly low-level flow will feed dry and cool (by almost
mid-June standards) air into the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley. Sfc
high settles into the Ohio Valley on Tuesday, but heights start to
slowly rise by then as the upper flow flattens out. Still expect
temps solidly below normal Monday and Tuesday, with highs barely
cracking 80 on Tuesday and lows in the 50s through Tuesday night,
even in the urban heat island of Louisville.
Warming trend begins on Wednesday as we get into very weak return
flow, but the Gulf doesn't really open up yet. Temps could make a
run at 90 on Thursday, but it's more likely to be Friday before we
see enough moisture return to support any convection.
Look for more of a summer feel Friday and Saturday, even with a weak
cold front dropping into Illinois and Indiana. Daytime highs will
be close to 90 each day, with dewpoints in the mid 60s and diurnal
slight chance POPs.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 759 PM EDT Sat Jun 8 2024
VFR conditions prevail at this hour with BKN to OVC mid deck of
clouds and a steady SSW wind. A cold front approaches from the NW
later tonight, which could brings some light showers, and more
likely, a brief period of MVFR ceilings. Have those timed out with
fairly high confidence in the window. The other concern is for some
showers and storms down toward BWG around just before sunrise
through around midday. Any shower or storm down there could briefly
yield low MVFR or IFR ceilings. The cold front slides through from
NW to SE through tomorrow, yielding a return to VFR and gradually
clearing skies at each site. Steady NW winds will prevail behind the
front.
&&
.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...None.
IN...None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...BJS
SHORT TERM...CJP
LONG TERM...RAS
AVIATION...BJS
Source:
LMK issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jun 8, 9:36 PM EDT ...Forecast Update...---------------
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