ILN issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Feb 27, 6:10 PM EST941
FXUS61 KILN 272310
AFDILN
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
610 PM EST Thu Feb 27 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will nose into the region tonight, offering dry
conditions. Another front will approach the Ohio Valley on
Friday, bringing gusty winds and above normal temperatures.
Chilly weather will arrive behind the front through the weekend.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
Upper trough swinging through the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley
will exit to the east tonight. High pressure will nose into the
region late from the southwest, allowing winds to slacken and
clouds to decrease. Temperatures will dip into the low 30s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
The ridge of high pressure will push off to the east of our area
on Friday as a fast-moving cold front approaches from the
northwest. The tightening pressure gradient and mostly sunny
skies will allow strong winds to mix down from aloft from midday
through the afternoon. HREF probabilities of greater than 45
mph exceed 50% across our north. Upon collaboration with
surrounding offices, have opted for a wind advisory for the
northern half of the CWA.
The cold front will slice through the area Friday night. This
will begin a period of cold air advection. Low temperatures
will range from 25 degrees in the north to 35 in the south.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Strong low level CAA will overspread the area on Saturday, leading
to early highs and then steady or slowly falling temperatures in the
30s. In cyclonic low level flow, expect to see a fair amount of
clouds through the day, along with a chance for flurries. Any flurry
activity will taper off heading into Saturday night as surface high
pressure begins to build in from the west. The surface high pressure
will move into our area on Sunday before shifting off to our east
Sunday night. Temperatures on Sunday will be seasonably cold with
highs the low to mid 30s.
A weak mid level short wave will progress east across the Ohio
Valley Monday night into Tuesday. In developing southerly flow and
WAA ahead of this, we will see an increasing chance for rain
showers. Stronger mid level energy moving out of the Plains through
mid week will help a strengthening surface low lift northeast into
the Great Lakes region through the day on Wednesday. This will lead
to widespread pcpn across our area Tuesday night into Wednesday and
breezy conditions. Some thunderstorms and perhaps even a low end
severe threat may develop Tuesday night into Wednesday, but this
will be dependent on the strength/track of the low and how much
instability ends up being pulled up into our area. Temperatures will
moderate through mid week with highs by Tuesday and Wednesday into
the 50s to possibly low 60s. A cold front will move east across the
region toward the end of the period. This will lead to drier and
cooler conditions for Thursday.
&&
.AVIATION /23Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A surface trough and upper level shortwave trough are progressing
through the Ohio Valley this evening helping to spawn fairly
widespread convective showers and thunderstorms. Shower and storm
activity should dissipate quickly this evening as the disturbances
pivot east and instability weakens. Some brief strong wind gusts up
to around 40 knots are possible in the decaying convection. Until
then, brief MVFR ceiling reductions and some thunder are possible.
VFR conditions are likely for the rest of the TAF period.
Northwesterly winds become westerly overnight and subside to below
10 knots prior to 1200z. Southwesterly winds develop after daybreak
and become strong/gusty by Friday afternoon. Wind gusts in excess of
40 knots are possible after 1800z Friday.
OUTLOOK...MVFR ceilings possible Friday night into Saturday.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...Wind Advisory from 10 AM to 7 PM EST Friday for OHZ026-034-035-
042>046-051>055-060>063-070>072.
KY...None.
IN...Wind Advisory from 10 AM to 7 PM EST Friday for INZ050-058-059-
066.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...JGL
AVIATION...
Source:
ILN issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Feb 27, 6:10 PM EST---------------
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