ILN issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jun 6, 3:47 PM EDT955
FXUS61 KILN 061947
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
347 PM EDT Thu Jun 6 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
A weak boundary will move east tonight, allowing dry weather.
Dry conditions are forecast to continue Friday and Saturday as
high pressure builds to the south. The threat for showers and a
few thunderstorms returns Saturday night and Sunday when a
couple disturbances are expected to push through the Great Lakes
and Ohio Valley.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
A boundary located near the middle of the FA is moving east.
Modest instability and moisture are combining to produce
isolated showers over the southeast quadrant. Kept thunder out
due to a strong cap limiting cloud tops to around 10000 ft.
Lower dew points behind the boundary will bring an end to
showers early this evening, while winds shift to northwest. As
skies become mainly clear overnight, and winds subside under 10
knots, temperatures will drop to the mid and upper 50s by 6 am.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Models indicate high pressure tracking across the southern
CONUS, providing a subsident circulation to the Ohio Valley.
This setup is forecast to keep dry weather over ILN. Breezy
conditions are expected from the relatively tight pressure
gradient surrounding the high, with gusts close to 30 mph
possible Friday afternoon.
Cold advection will result in below normal temperatures, with
highs reaching the 70s and lows falling to the low and mid 50s.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
This period will be characterized by troughing and cooler than
normal temperatures, and the lack of hazardous weather.
In the details, deep negative H5 height anomalies will dig into the
eastern CONUS starting Saturday night and completing on
Monday/Tuesday. Several frontal surges will accompany this process,
but lack of deep moisture and instability will keep rainfall chances
low, and precipitation largely showery Saturday night into Sunday as
a southward sinking frontal zone shifts through the area. The core
of the coolest air will set up on Sunday night-Monday night, with
temperatures well below normal. In fact, Monday's highs in the lower
70s may be optimistic if cloud cover is higher than currently
expected, something that typically happens in significant cold air
surges in the warm season, Monday may not make it out of the 60s.
Several flanking nights (Sunday night and Monday night) will see
widespread lows in the 50s, some upper 40s not at all out of the
question.
Heights begin to rise toward the middle/end of the work week, with
robust warm advection accompanying it. Should see temperatures warm
quickly back above normal by the end of the 7 day period. A mostly
dry week after the frontal surges Saturday night/Sunday, and the low-
end potential for a few cool-air-induced instability showers on
Monday afternoon.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR is expected through the forecast. Isolated showers forming
this afternoon near a weak boundary are not expected to impact
TAF sites, while ceilings remain above MVFR. High pressure
centered to the southwest will then provide dry air and
subsidence, allowing little cloud cover. Winds will gust to 20
knots this afternoon near the boundary, and after decreasing
below 10 knots tonight, additional gusts over 20 knots are
likely on Friday under the relatively tight pressure gradient
ahead of the high. BR formation is not anticipated from this dry
and well-mixed weather regime.
OUTLOOK...MVFR possible in showers and thunderstorms Saturday
night and Sunday.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Coniglio
NEAR TERM...Coniglio
SHORT TERM...Coniglio
LONG TERM...Binau
AVIATION...Coniglio
Source:
ILN issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jun 6, 3:47 PM EDT---------------
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