LMK issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Feb 28, 3:08 AM EST958
FXUS63 KLMK 280808
AFDLMK
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
308 AM EST Fri Feb 28 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
* Mild today with gusty southwest winds this afternoon and
evening up to 45mph over most of the region.
* Unseasonably chilly Saturday and Sunday.
* Widespread rain expected Tuesday into Wednesday, with a few
strong thunderstorms possible Tuesday night.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 307 AM EST Fri Feb 28 2025
Through Dawn...
Under clear skies and light winds, temperatures have cooled into the
low to mid 40s. Through the remainder of the overnight, winds will
back to the southwest and temperatures will continue to fall into
the mid to upper 30s, with some cool spots hitting the low 30s.
Today and Tonight...
A shortwave trough will swing through the Great Lakes and Ohio
Valley regions, bringing a fairly strong low pressure system through
the southern Great Lakes. Ahead of this system, a 45-50kt LLJ will
move in from the northwest. With ample mixing, steep low-level lapse
rates, and full sun, would expect efficient momentum transfer to
bring windy conditions down to the surface. Winds will gradually
increase over the region reaching peak sustained winds of 20-25mph
and gusts up to 45mph. For this reason, a wind advisory has been
issued from this afternoon through midnight. This advisory is
extended until midnight to cover the winds ahead of the front in the
evening under the LLJ, which will mostly impact the eastern portions
of the region. HREF guidance seems to have a good handle on the
winds today.
Full sun, WAA, and southwesterly flow will help to increase
temperatures for this afternoon. Expecting to see highs in the mid
to upper 60s. This pattern is typical of overachieving on high
temperatures and winds.
The cold front will approach the region in the evening, bringing a
wind shift to the northwest and allow winds to relax. Strong CAA
will filter in behind the front, bringing Saturday morning lows into
the mid to upper 30s.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 307 AM EST Fri Feb 28 2025
Anomalously cold this weekend with an eastern CONUS upper trof and
Canadian high pressure spilling SSE from the Upper Midwest. Temps on
Saturday will really struggle in the face of strong cold advection,
with afternoon highs only reaching the 40s. A bit more sunshine and
less wind on Sunday, but we'll start in the lower 20s with the sfc
high and low-level thermal trof overhead, and afternoon highs will
be even a few degrees colder than Saturday.
Heights rise Sunday night and Monday with an amplifying shortwave
ridge, but that will be quickly followed by a closed low which opens
up as it kicks eastward across the Ozarks into the Ohio Valley. Low-
confidence precip forecast as it's a weakening closed low, and
models lack both agreement and consistency. Will limit POPs with
this feature to around 50% Monday night and Tuesday morning, but
another key takeaway is we are warm enough by then to keep it all
rain.
Later Tuesday into Wednesday an amplifying pattern will draw copious
amounts of Gulf moisture northward into the Ohio Valley, as a
deepening sfc low runs from SE Kansas on Tuesday evening to near
Chicago Wednesday morning, and continues NE to Georgian Bay by
Tuesday evening. A juicy low-level jet translates eastward across
our area late Tue night into Wed morning, with at least widespread
showers ahead of the front. Shear will be plentiful, but instability
still appears sorely lacking whether due to timing near the diurnal
min, or being cut off by stronger convection across Dixie Alley.
Will keep a close eye on this system as any instability that can
surge north into Kentucky would support strong to severe
thunderstorms.
Cold pool precip could linger Wednesday night given the upper trof
hanging back, and cyclonic flow still through a deep layer. Will dry
out quickly on Thursday as ridging takes over, but northerly low-
level winds will bring solid cold advection to keep temps a few
degrees below normal.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1226 AM EST Fri Feb 28 2025
VFR conditions will continue through this TAF cycle. Currently,
winds are light out of the NW and will back to the SW through the
remainder of the overnight period as the next low pressure system
moves into the upper midwest. By late morning, this low pressure
system will be over the southern Great Lakes, sending a 45-50kt LLJ
into the Ohio Valley. With ample sunshine, good mixing, and steep
lapse rates, we do expect winds to gust 28-32kts in the afternoon,
with sustained winds of 16-22kts. Winds will relax steadily through
the evening hours as a cold front pushes through.
&&
.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...Wind Advisory from noon EST /11 AM CST/ today to midnight EST
/11 PM CST/ tonight for KYZ023>025-027>043-045>049-
053>057-063>067-077-078.
IN...Wind Advisory from noon EST /11 AM CST/ today to midnight EST
/11 PM CST/ tonight for INZ076>079-083-084-089>092.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...SRW
LONG TERM...RAS
AVIATION...SRW
Source:
LMK issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Feb 28, 3:08 AM EST---------------
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