BOX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Feb 23, 2:08 PM EST979
FXUS61 KBOX 231908
AFDBOX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
208 PM EST Sun Feb 23 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Dry conditions with above normal temperatures are anticipated
for early to mid week. Some locations may reach into the 50s
Tuesday and Wednesday. A few spot showers are possible around
Tuesday. A cold front passes later Thursday with colder
conditions behind it for Friday and next weekend
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Key Messages...
* Tranquil weather continues
High pressure moving from the central Appalachians to the Mid
Atlantic coast will remain the dominant feature of our weather
tonight. Gusty W winds this afternoon will diminish towards
sunset, then become light and variable, if not outright calm for
a time late tonight. Still thinking there will be enough clouds
to spoil the ideal radiational cooling conditions. Expecting
low temperatures to be near normal for late February.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Key Messages...
* Quiet weather continues through this period
* Above normal temperatures expected
The aforementioned high pressure moves farther offshore Monday,
reaching just south of the Maritimes by late afternoon. Light
and variable winds should become light south. Throw in some
sunshine, and most areas should have a high temperature at least
around 40 degrees. Regions such as the lower CT River Valley
and the coastal plain may even make a run towards the upper 40s.
Another round of clouds anticipated with the approach and
passage of a warm front Monday night. The main focus of this
front will be across northern New England, so dry conditions
continue. Even warmer, with most of the lower elevations likely
not falling below freezing. This is some 10-15F degrees above
normal. The amount of cloud cover is crucial to this forecast.
Should it be less cloudy, then temperatures will need to be
lowered with later forecasts.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Key Messages:
* A few weak disturbances throughout the week w/ light precip
amounts.
* A cold front passes through Thurs.
* Warming trend through the middle part of the upcoming week,
then falling temperatures into next weekend.
Mid-level zonal flow pushes modified Pacific air across the CONUS
allowing for moderating temperatures through most of the work week.
The trade-off for the milder conditions is a series of fast-moving,
albeit, low impact disturbances. Each shortwave will bring a chance
for scattered precipitation as they pass through the region. A more
significant disturbance arrives Thursday with a cold front. The
pattern over the CONUS returns to a more amplified state Friday
through the weekend as a trough deepens over the eastern US and a
ridge builds over the west.
The first of the upper-level disturbances arrives Tuesday night with
little fanfare outside of a few scattered rain showers in northern
Mass. A dry cold front follows this system but impacts to sfc temps
will be negated by mostly sunny skies and light westerly winds. The
next chance for precipitation arrives Thurs. The majority of
guidance develops surface low pressure near the Great Lakes Thurs
morning ahead of a developing long wave trough. While there is still
some uncertainty in the exact track of the low, the consensus
amongst most guidance is for the storm to track northeast of our CWA
towards the St. Lawrence Valley. Precipitation may start as a period
of snow or a mix across far northern areas of Franklin County.
Higher confidence in an all rain event elsewhere. In terms of
amounts, the 25th - 75th percentile QPF totals from the NBM range
from just over 0.10" to 0.30" for Thurs. All of that is to say that
Thursday is not expected to be a complete washout at this time. A
drier and breezier day follows behind the front Friday with falling
temperatures and possible upslope rain and snow showers. Another
shortwave and surface low may follow on Saturday but confidence is
low.
A mild stretch is still expected Tuesday through Thursday. Guidance
indicates widespread max temps in the mid-40s and low 50s each day
away from the immediate coastline. The warmest of the days may be
Thursday as 850 temps surge to +3 to 5C with strong WAA at the
surface. At the moment, it looks like frontal passage would hold off
until after the diurnal temperature maximum Thursday evening. Beyond
that, much colder air filters with a broad NW flow and CAA Friday
into the weekend.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Forecast Confidence Levels:
Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
Through Monday Night...High Confidence.
VFR. Gusty west winds diminish towards sunset. Light and
variable winds, if not calm, late tonight. Light S winds
develops by Monday afternoon.
KBOS TAF...High Confidence in TAF.
KBDL TAF...High confidence in TAF.
Outlook /Tuesday through Thursday/...
Monday Night: VFR. Breezy.
Tuesday through Tuesday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR
possible. Slight chance RA.
Wednesday: VFR.
Wednesday Night: VFR. Slight chance RA.
Thursday: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Breezy. Chance
RA.
&&
.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels:
Low - less than 30 percent.
Medium - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
High Confidence.
High pressure moves from the Mid Atlantic coast late tonight to
just south of Nova Scotia by Monday afternoon. A warm front may
approach and cross the waters Monday night. Light winds and seas
with good visibility into Monday. Potential for some gusts up
to 25-30 kt late Monday into Monday night, mainly across the
eastern outer MA coastal waters. Will need to consider Small
Craft Advisories for these waters. Confidence is not yet high
enough in the duration of these gusts to issue such an advisory
at this time.
Outlook /Tuesday through Thursday/...
Monday Night: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with
gusts up to 30 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft.
Tuesday: Winds less than 25 kt.
Tuesday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Slight chance of rain.
Wednesday: Winds less than 25 kt.
Wednesday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally
approaching 5 ft.
Thursday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. Chance of
rain.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...None.
RI...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Belk/FT
NEAR TERM...Belk
SHORT TERM...Belk
LONG TERM...FT
AVIATION...Belk/FT
MARINE...Belk/FT
Source:
BOX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Feb 23, 2:08 PM EST----------------
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