MOB issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Feb 20, 11:20 PM CST ...New AVIATION...020
FXUS64 KMOB 210520
AFDMOB
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
1120 PM CST Thu Feb 20 2025
...New AVIATION...
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1120 PM CST Thu Feb 20 2025
VFR conditions are expected through the next 24 hours at the
terminals. Winds will remain from the north between 5 and 10 mph
overnight, with gusts up to 15 mph expected Friday morning. Winds
will diminish by sunset tomorrow. /73
&&
PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 358 PM CST Thu Feb 20 2025/
.New NEAR TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...
NEAR TERM...
(Now through Friday)
Issued at 356 PM CST Thu Feb 20 2025
Very strong arctic surface high pressure (1040+mb) was analyzed over
the Nation's mid-section and will contribute to a well established
and dry northerly flow through the remainder of the day. Lingering
clouds that were streaming southeast over the area earlier in the
day at the base of the cyclonic flow around an upper low centered
over the eastern Great Lakes has eroded as drier air overtakes the
local area.
Another cold night tonight as lows sink to the upper teens to lower-
mid 20's over the interior and mid-upper 20's closer to the coast.
These lows are some 15 to 20 degrees below normal. With the axis of
the strong high still well off to our northwest over the Mid MS
River Valley, a north to northeast wind at 5 to 10 kts overnight
will be enough to cause wind chills to plummet well into the teens
for much of the area and a Cold Weather Advisory remains in effect.
Will continue to be dominated by the large high to our north on
Friday with daily highs, also 15 to 20 degrees below normal, only
making it into the mid-upper 40's interior to lower 50's coast.
Caught up in the westerlies aloft, there are some indications we may
see some higher based moisture and clouds coming in through the
course of the day Friday. Too dry for rain though. Overnight lows
Friday night in the mid to upper 20's interior to closer to freezing
down across the I-65 corridor. Mid to upper 30's coast. /10
LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 356 PM CST Thu Feb 20 2025
A surface high over the Midwest continues to weaken as we roll into
the early part of the weekend as it begins to settle into the
Southeast. A gradual warming trend will ensue, but it's still going
to be 10 below normal for this time of year. The last round of
solidly below freezing temperatures will likely occur Saturday night
into Sunday morning with 3-6 hours below freezing for inland
communities in the pre-dawn hours.
The parade of shortwaves continues as we roll into early next week
in a general zonal flow aloft. There remains uncertainty in the
degree of moisture return as these shortwaves slide overhead,
especially the shortwave that rolls overhead in the Sunday/Monday
timeframe. A weak surface trough or low develops over the northern
Gulf during that timeframe, but the bulk of the rain associated with
this system should remain south of the area. That said, we can't
rule out some rain showers on Sunday, but it likely won't be
widespread. Several subtle shortwaves slide through the westerly to
northwesterly flow aloft throughout the remainder of the week
without much fan fare. The next chance for more meaningful rain is
late in the week as a more potent shortwave rounds the base of a
trough and the associated cold front dives across the area. Prior to
the front, temperatures will soar into the mid to upper 70s on
Wednesday with a few spots potentially topping out in the 80s.
07/mb
MARINE...
Issued at 356 PM CST Thu Feb 20 2025
A strong area of surface high pressure over the Mid Mississippi
River Valley maintains a moderate to strong offshore flow tonight.
Winds gusting to small craft advisory criteria for area Bays through
9 PM this evening, but remains over the open Gulf waters the
remainder of the night. /10
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile 25 51 32 60 36 58 37 67 / 0 0 0 0 10 30 20 0
Pensacola 28 51 39 59 40 60 42 66 / 0 0 0 0 10 20 20 0
Destin 31 52 41 59 42 62 45 66 / 0 0 0 0 10 20 20 0
Evergreen 22 51 28 59 31 60 33 68 / 0 0 0 0 0 20 10 0
Waynesboro 21 47 26 56 30 55 32 66 / 0 0 0 0 10 20 10 0
Camden 20 47 25 56 29 55 32 65 / 0 0 0 0 0 20 10 0
Crestview 23 52 31 61 33 62 35 69 / 0 0 0 0 0 20 20 0
&&
.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...Cold Weather Advisory until 10 AM CST Friday for ALZ051>060-
261>266.
FL...Cold Weather Advisory until 10 AM CST Friday for FLZ201>206.
MS...Cold Weather Advisory until 10 AM CST Friday for MSZ067-075-076-
078-079.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM CST Friday for GMZ630>632-634.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM CST Friday for GMZ650-655-670-
675.
&&
$$
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www.weather.gov/mob
Source:
MOB issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Feb 20, 11:20 PM CST ...New AVIATION...---------------
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