MOB issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Feb 20, 7:32 AM CST ...New AVIATION...488
FXUS64 KMOB 201332
AFDMOB
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
732 AM CST Thu Feb 20 2025
...New AVIATION...
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 732 AM CST Thu Feb 20 2025
MVFR stratus supported by wrap around moisture associated with a
large upper low moving east across the Midwest this morning will
gradually mix out with skies clearing at the TAF sites by mid
morning as isentropic downglide strengthens along with continued
dry air advection and weakening of the local raising of pressure
surfaces that supported the cloud cover overnight as strong cold
air advection continued. VFR ceilings and visibilities should
persist from mid morning through Friday morning.
Strong northerly winds along with higher gusts will continue
areawide today with most TAF locations sustained between 15 and 20
kts with gusts potentially in excess of 25 kts at times as a tight
surface pressure gradient persists and vigorous mixing develops
below a strong subsidence inversion that should lift some during
the day. These winds should be out of the north so crosswinds
could become an issue along east/west runways along with some
compressional issues for any flights coming from the north and
having to come around to land north. /JLH
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 231 AM CST Thu Feb 20 2025/
..New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...
.NEAR TERM...
(Now through Friday)
Issued at 231 AM CST Thu Feb 20 2025
An arctic airmass continues to settle across the region, with
temperatures in the upper 20s to lower 30s as of 1 am. CAA will
continue through the predawn hours, as lows fall into the 20s
areawide. Combined with winds between 5 and 10 mph, wind chills will
drop into the single digits across our northern areas to lower 20s
along the coast. Given these cold conditions, a Cold Weather
Advisory remains in effect this morning.
Skies will clear through the day as dry air continues to filter
across the region. Despite mostly clear skies, temps will struggle
to warm much during the day, with highs only warming into the upper
30s and 40s. Mostly clear skies and calm winds will continue into
the overnight hours tonight, with lows falling into the teens to
upper 20s once again. A Cold Weather Advisory is also in effect for
tonight, given the wind chills in the teens. /73
&&
.SHORT and LONG TERM... (Friday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 231 AM CST Thu Feb 20 2025
Flow aloft will remain zonal to start the weekend, with surface high
pressure persisting. Several waves are expected to traverse the area
in the zonal flow aloft, thought with little in the way of moisture
return, not expecting much change to the sensible weather pattern. A
stronger shortwave will eject from the Four Corners region late on
Saturday, and move eastward during the overnight hours. Moisture
will be somewhat limited with this shortwave, as surface flow
remains northerly, but there will be enough moisture for scattered
showers on Sunday. The shortwave will quickly move eastward, exiting
the area Sunday night and bringing an end to any rain chances.
Temperatures will be cool over the weekend, with highs in the 50s
and lows in the upper 20s to 30s.
The new work week will be dominated by high pressure at the surface
and northwest flow aloft. After a few days of below normal
temperatures, a moderating trend is expected during the first part
of next week, with highs warming into the 70s and overnight lows
falling into the 40s. /73
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 231 AM CST Thu Feb 20 2025
Strong offshore flow behind a departing low pressure system that
moved east across the northern Gulf. These strong winds will
persist through Friday before weakening through the weekend. Light
offshore flow will continue through early next week before a
return to onshore flow by the middle of next week. There will be
small rain chances over the weekend and then again later next
week. /JLH
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile 45 25 51 32 60 36 60 39 / 0 0 0 0 0 10 40 20
Pensacola 46 28 51 38 60 41 61 43 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 30 30
Destin 49 30 51 40 60 42 62 45 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 20 20
Evergreen 43 21 50 28 60 31 61 35 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 20 20
Waynesboro 41 20 47 26 56 30 56 33 / 0 0 0 0 0 10 30 10
Camden 39 20 46 25 55 29 56 33 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 20 10
Crestview 47 24 51 30 62 33 63 36 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 20 20
&&
.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...Cold Weather Advisory until 9 AM CST this morning for ALZ051>060-
261>266.
Cold Weather Advisory from midnight tonight to 9 AM CST Friday
for ALZ051>060-261>266.
FL...Cold Weather Advisory until 9 AM CST this morning for FLZ201>206.
Cold Weather Advisory from midnight tonight to 9 AM CST Friday
for FLZ201>206.
MS...Cold Weather Advisory until 9 AM CST this morning for MSZ067-075-
076-078-079.
Cold Weather Advisory from midnight tonight to 9 AM CST Friday
for MSZ067-075-076-078-079.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM CST this evening for GMZ630>636.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM CST Friday for GMZ650-655-670-
675.
&&
$$
This product is also available on the web at:
www.weather.gov/mob
Source:
MOB issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Feb 20, 7:32 AM CST ...New AVIATION...---------------
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