MOB issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Feb 19, 11:32 PM CST ...New AVIATION...228
FXUS64 KMOB 200532
AFDMOB
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
1132 PM CST Wed Feb 19 2025
...New AVIATION...
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1132 PM CST Wed Feb 19 2025
MVFR ceilings will prevail through tonight, followed by a return
to VFR conditions around 14z Thursday as cloud cover decreases. A
stiff north wind around 15 knots gusting to 25 knots will continue
through Thursday afternoon. /22
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 352 PM CST Wed Feb 19 2025/
.New NEAR TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...
NEAR TERM...
(Now through Thursday)
Issued at 351 PM CST Wed Feb 19 2025
Rain has moved out and is quickly being replaced with arctic air.
The upper trough has moved across the area and will progress
eastward as high pressure builds over the central US. This will
allow for deep cold air to move into the area tonight. With dry
polar air, no precip is expected and any precip that did fall
should dry out rather quickly. As a result, no concerns are
expected for any form of ice. The big thing will be the near
record cold temperatures coupled with strong winds overnight. The
record low for Mobile tonight is 25 degrees and the current
forecast is for 27. With winds staying elevated, wind chills will
likely crater into the teens and even some single digits across
our far northern areas. Tomorrow will not be any better as highs
may struggle to get out of the 30s with wind chills in the low 30s
during the day. The coldest nigh temperatures wise will be
Thursday night as calming winds and ideal radiational cooling
should result in lows in the low to mid 20s with wind chills in
the teens once again. A cold weather advisory is in effect for
both tonight and Thursday night. BB/03
LONG TERM...
(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 351 PM CST Wed Feb 19 2025
A strong surface high over the Midwest gradually weakens by early
this weekend as it becomes elongated over the Southeast. This will
lead to a gradual warm up (-ish) as we head into the weekend, but
it's still going to be 10-20 below normal for this time of year.
Clouds begin to stream into the area by Friday night ahead of a
subtle shortwave aloft, which will prevent temperatures from
tanking like in previous nights. That said, Friday night into
Saturday morning will be the coldest timeframe in the long term
with inland counties seeing 8-11 hours of below freezing
temperatures overnight.
The parade of shortwaves aloft continues as we roll deeper into
the weekend and into early next week in a general zonal flow
aloft. The timing of these individual shortwaves and the degree of
moisture return remains rather uncertain. We maintain a small
chance for rain on Sunday, but our confidence remains low in this
scenario. The warm up continues into the early to middle part of
next week as highs quickly rise back into the 70s. 07/mb
MARINE...
Issued at 351 PM CST Wed Feb 19 2025
Strong offshore flow will continue through tonight as the surface
low moves east of the area and arctic high pressure builds in from
the north. Winds will gradually subside Thursday night through
Friday night. A Small craft advisory remains in effect for all
marine areas through Thursday. BB-8
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile 27 45 25 49 32 60 36 59 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 10 20
Pensacola 31 46 29 50 37 59 41 59 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 10 20
Destin 35 50 31 51 39 59 43 61 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 10 20
Evergreen 26 43 22 50 27 59 31 59 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 10 10
Waynesboro 21 41 22 47 26 56 30 54 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 10 20
Camden 23 40 21 47 25 56 29 55 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 10
Crestview 28 47 25 51 29 61 34 62 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 10 20
&&
.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...Cold Weather Advisory until 9 AM CST Thursday for ALZ051>060-
261>266.
Cold Weather Advisory from midnight Thursday night to 9 AM CST
Friday for ALZ051>060-261>266.
FL...Cold Weather Advisory until 9 AM CST Thursday for FLZ201>206.
Cold Weather Advisory from midnight Thursday night to 9 AM CST
Friday for FLZ201>206.
MS...Cold Weather Advisory until 9 AM CST Thursday for MSZ067-075-076-
078-079.
Cold Weather Advisory from midnight Thursday night to 9 AM CST
Friday for MSZ067-075-076-078-079.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM CST Thursday for GMZ630>636.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM CST Friday for GMZ650-655-670-
675.
&&
$$
This product is also available on the web at:
www.weather.gov/mob
Source:
MOB issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Feb 19, 11:32 PM CST ...New AVIATION...---------------
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