CLE issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Feb 24, 6:15 PM EST272
FXUS61 KCLE 242315
AFDCLE
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
615 PM EST Mon Feb 24 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
As high pressure departs to the east, low pressure will move
east just north of the Great Lakes, moving a weak boundary
across the area tonight into early Tuesday. High pressure
returns late Tuesday in Wednesday before another low impacts the
area Wednesday night into Thursday. High pressure will build in
Friday as another low pressure system forms over the Great
Plains and moves into the region this weekend.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
6:30 PM Update...
The winds are starting to decouple with sunset, and expect most
of the gusts to be gone 01Z. The forecast remains on track for
this evening
Orginal Discussion...
High pressure to the south will continue to push off to the east
as a low pressure system located over Hudson Bay moves into
eastern Canada. The tighten pressure gradient will start to
loosen as those weather system and the LLJ move of to the east
and the gusty winds will diminish into the evening. There may be
a few lingering stronger gusts in NW PA that could still gust up to
35 mph as the LLJ pushes off. A weak surface trough will move
into the region late tonight into tomorrow morning bringing in
the potential for precipitation. The majority of the
precipitation should stay south of U.S. Route 30 but expect the
entire region to see rainfall at some point overnight. QPF is
still expected to remain less than 0.1" so any flood impacts
will be minimal, though will need to monitor with the snow melt
adding to the runoff. After the trough passes through, there may
be a few lingering showers across NE OH and NW PA into Tuesday
afternoon, but the rest of the area will be dry as high pressure
builds in.
Temperatures overnight tonight will be down into the mid 30s, so
any precipitation that falls tonight will be rain. Highs
tomorrow will be up into the mid to upper 40s before dropping
down into the low 30s Tuesday night.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
The first in a series of upper level troughs will approach the
Central Great Lakes on Wednesday. Southerly flow ahead of low
pressure will result in another day of mild conditions with
high temperatures in the mid 40s to low 50s. Most of the day will be
dry with precipitation developing along the northward moving warm
front initially and then filling in along the cold front as it
sweeps east overnight. Precipitation amounts are generally expected
to be around a quarter of an inch. By Thursday temperatures will be
around 10 degrees cooler. A shortwave ridge briefly builds in
behind the cold front on Thursday while scattered light rain and
snow showers linger in the east.
A secondary piece of energy dives south out of Canada across the
Upper Midwest into the trough on Thursday. This pulls a
stronger cold front southeast across the area Thursday night.
Temperatures will be marginal on Thursday evening with a
rain/snow mix expected with a transition to snow as temperatures
cool overnight across the snowbelt. Any accumulations are expected
to be marginal as we lose deeper moisture after midnight.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
The long term starts with high pressure and dry conditions on Friday
before another trough moves through the northwest flow again on
Saturday. Surface low pressure is again expected to pass north of
the area with a stronger cold front arriving during the day on
Saturday. 850mb temperatures fall into the -12 to -16 range on
Saturday night which will bring a return to snow showers. Will
need to get a better handle on details before determining any
potential accumulations but the window of better moisture is brief
and likely to be a limiting factor. Temperatures fall back below
normal by Sunday with temperatures in the 20s and 30s but are
already expected to trend warmer again by Monday.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z Tuesday THROUGH Saturday/...
Terminals will see higher ceilings throughout the rest of the
day. Ceilings have been steady around 10-12kft but have moved to
the east and a higher, +25kft layer, has moved in from the
west. The western terminals have already seen the changeover and
will continue east into the evening.
Main concern for the first portion of the TAF period will be the
south-southwesterly gusting winds and potential for LLWS. Winds
have been consistently gusting between 25-30kts today with some
terminals seeing gusts +35kts. A strong LLJ is pushing through
the region currently with westerly flow of 45-50kts. This LLJ
will push eastward out of the region by 00-02Z tonight and
winds will start to diminish and gusts will fall off. With the
fall of low level winds with the departure of the LLJ, the
potential for LLWS has fallen as well. There may be some
instances of wind shear or turbulence through the 02Z time
period, but they will be infrequent due to winds mixing well
across the region. Winds will diminish down below 12kts out of
the southwest for all terminals by 02-03Z tonight.
Tomorrow morning there will be IFR conditions are possible across
all terminals as a trough with the potential of precipitation
moves through the region. There will be a decrease in visibility
down to MVFR by 09-11Z with the precipitation potential and
continue through the end of the TAF period. The southern
terminals will have the greatest chance of seeing precipitation
and reduced visibility and ceilings down to IFR.
Outlook...Periodic rain showers with non-VFR possible late
tonight through Tuesday and again Wednesday through Thursday
night.
&&
.MARINE...
Lake Erie is primarily ice-covered and thus Small Craft Advisory
issuance remains suspended until further notice.
Southwest winds of 20-25 knots today remain a concern for
shifting of the ice on Lake Erie. Ice may break away from the south
shore or areas around the Lake Erie Islands, closing shipping
channels today or stranding persons on the ice. Winds are expected
peak through 6 PM then begin to decrease. Winds will drop into the
10-20 knot range tonight then veer to northwesterly by late Tuesday
as a trough crosses Lake Erie.
The next low pressure system is forecast to pass just north of Lake
Erie on Wednesday night with southerly winds of 10-15 knots veering
to westerly at 10-20 knots with the passage of a cold front on
Thursday. A stronger push of cold front arrives on Thursday night
with northwest winds of 15-20 knots. The pattern remains active with
yet another low pressure system moving east through the Central
Great Lakes on Friday night with another cold front and gusty
northwest winds on Saturday.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...23
NEAR TERM...Garuckas/23
SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM...10
AVIATION...23
MARINE...10
Source:
CLE issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Feb 24, 6:15 PM EST---------------
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