JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Feb 24, 12:33 AM EST661
FXUS63 KJKL 240533
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
1233 AM EST Mon Feb 24 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- A significant warming trend will last through mid-week, with
temperatures forecast to top 60 degrees at nearly all locations
on Wednesday.
- A cold front is forecast to move through Wednesday night with
our next good shot at rain (50-80% probability), followed by a
modest downturn in temperatures.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1025 PM EST SUN FEB 23 2025
No significant changes to the forecast with just the inclusion of
the latest obs and trends for the T/Td/Sky grids. These minor
adjustments have been sent to the NDFD and web servers along with
a freshening of the zones and SAFs.
UPDATE Issued at 630 PM EST SUN FEB 23 2025
23Z sfc analysis shows weakening high pressure over eastern
Kentucky. This is keeping the winds light and only a few patches
of high clouds drifting through the sky. Currently temperatures
vary from the mid 40s in the southeast to the middle and upper 30s
in the far northwest and also some of the eastern sheltered
valleys. Meanwhile, dewpoints range from the lower 20s in the west
to the mid teens in the east. No significant changes to the
forecast with just the inclusion of the latest obs and trends for
the T/Td/Sky grids for this update. These minor adjustments have
been sent to the NDFD and web servers.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday night)
Issued at 300 PM EST SUN FEB 23 2025
Sun-filled skies are the story this Sunday afternoon with seasonable
temperatures ranging in the 40s, aside from some 30s in the higher
mountains near/along the Virginia border. The quiescent weather
is courtesy an amorphous surface high pressure over the Southeastern
CONUS.
The uneventful weather pattern will continue through the short-term
period. A weak disturbance, evident in the 500H mesoscale
analysis as a shortwave trough dropping southeast from the
Midwest, will cross the Lower Ohio Valley this evening and
tonight. With minimal available moisture, anticipate nothing more
than an uptick in mid and high-level cloudiness as the perturbation
passes. The clouds should be thin enough to allow temperatures to
radiatively cool into the 20s area-wide by late tonight.
On Monday morning, heights will briefly rebound as surface high
pressure ridging lingers off to our south and east. By later in
the day however, yet another disturbance and decaying cold front
dives southeast from western Canada and spread thickening and
lowering clouds into the I-64 corridor by late in the day and
across the remainder of the forecast area Monday evening/night.
Monday's maximum temperatures are forecast to range in the 50s at
most locations, to locally around 60 in the deeper Coalfield
valleys. With increasing clouds and a milder airmass in place,
expect a warmer Monday night with lows ranging from the lower 30s
in cooler southern valleys to the lower 40s on thermal belt ridges.
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 355 PM EST SUN FEB 23 2025
The weather pattern through the long-term will remain progressive.
Aside from a brief period of weak west to northwesterly cold air
advection on Tuesday afternoon/evening, southwesterly flow will
continue to bring in well above normal temperatures through mid-
week. A cool front knocks temperatures back down to near normal
levels on Thursday and Friday before another quick warm up arrives
in time for the Saturday. Cooler temperatures follow for Sunday.
The 23/12z model suite analysis beginning Tuesday morning shows a
shortwave trough traversing the Lower Ohio Valley. An associated
cold front will decay to little more than a subtle theta-e gradient
and wind shift passing through eastern Kentucky during the morning
hours. PoPs have continued to trend lower with this system and
are generally under a 5 PoP. A minority of the guidance suggests
that low clouds hold in across most of the area in the wake of
the trough, leading to cooler afternoon temperatures, though most
of the guidance features less moisture and more sunshine, leading
to temperatures similar or warmer than Monday. Shortwave ridging
aloft and surface high pressure nudging in from the south bring
more fair weather Tuesday night and Wednesday morning with 850 mb
temperatures surging to between 7 and 9C by Wednesday afternoon. A
more substantial system, a clipper low from the Albertan/Montanan
prairies then dives into the Great Lakes by Wednesday afternoon.
The system's warm conveyor belt jet will push a warm front
surging northeast late in the day as the low approaches, allowing
the best moisture of the period (PWATs surging toward 1 inch) to
briefly return. There will also be some synoptic scale lifting
from a coupling 300mb jet structure. The most substantial cold
front of the period follows the clipper early Thursday morning.
This system brings the only notable rain chances of the forecast
period -- 50 to 80 percent at most locations. Widespread total
rainfall amounts on the order of 0.2 to 0.3 inches were predicted
in the latest forecast package. Reasonable high-end scenarios
(90th percentile of the LREF) are still generally under 0.5 inch.
This is not enough rainfall to cause any notable hydro issues.
In the wake of the cold front, another quick-moving disturbance
originating high in northwest Canada dives southeast toward the
Great Lakes and sweeps a reinforcing surge of cooler air across
eastern Kentucky on Thursday night. Temperatures with this
disturbance still look to become marginally cold enough to support
a little upslope snow or "snizzle" by Friday morning, but any
accumulation should be minimal to nil. Heights start to spring
back up by late Friday, as that disturbance departs, only to once
again fall heading into the weekend, as another clipper low dives
out of northwestern Canada and into the Great Lakes on Saturday.
Milder air briefly surges back into eastern Kentucky during the
day on Saturday. Most of the guidance suggests that we will
receive only a glancing nudge from this system in the form of dry
or mostly dry cold front and only modest drop in temperatures. It
is worth noting however that model spread does become large enough
by Sunday for an ~13C spread in 850 mb temperatures at 12z Sunday
in the LREF, indicating that models are struggling with the
intensity of the post-frontal air mass.
In sensible terms, look for mostly cloudy skies (and possibly a
stray sprinkle) on Tuesday morning to give way to increasing
amounts of sunshine and mild temperatures with highs in the mid
50s to near 60 (forecaster confidence in temperatures is medium).
Continued mild temperatures can be expected under partly cloudy
skies on Tuesday night and Wednesday with lows in the 30s and
highs in the mid to upper 60s, respectively. A few of the warmest
spots could flirt with 70F. The threat for a wetting rain returns
Wednesday night and persists into early Thursday with
temperatures settling back into the 40s. Cooler conditions with
periodic rain and snow shower chances follow later Thursday night
into Friday. Daytime highs retreat to the 45F to 55F range while
nighttime lows settle to near freezing. Looking ahead to Saturday,
temperatures surge back to above normal levels in the 50s to
around 60 under partial sunshine after morning lows in the mid 30s
to lower 40s. Temperatures are then expected to cool to at least
near normal levels by Sunday -- lows in the upper 20s to mid 30s
and highs in the mid 40s to low 50s -- but could potentially be
colder.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
ISSUED AT 1233 AM EST MON FEB 24 2025
VFR conditions will hold through the period. SCT mid-high level
clouds are expected on Monday into Monday night. Winds will
generally be from the south to southwest at less than 10 kts.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...GEERTSON
LONG TERM...GEERTSON
AVIATION...HAL
Source:
JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Feb 24, 12:33 AM EST---------------
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