ILN issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Feb 22, 3:43 PM EST541
FXUS61 KILN 222043
AFDILN
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
343 PM EST Sat Feb 22 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will bring dry weather and a slow moderation
of temperatures this weekend. Several chances for light
precipitation return by the middle of next week as a warmer
weather pattern develops. Slightly above normal temperatures
are expected by midweek.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
West-northwest mid level flow with an embedded shortwave
tracking thru the Eastern Ohio Valley. Vanguard mid and high
level clouds cover Southern Ohio and Northern Kentucky will
continue to thin out as the shortwave departs the area. Expect
mostly clear skies overnight with only some thin high level
clouds spilling in from the northwest.
Temperatures tonight drop to lows from the upper teens to around
20 degrees. Southwest winds will decrease to less than 10 mph.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
West-northwest flow with a weak mid level shortwave dropping
from the Upper MS Valley across the Great Lakes Sunday. Mid and
high level clouds - thickest across the north will spill across
the area Sunday. Temperatures will slowly warm up with highs
ranging from the mid/upper 30s northwest to the lower/middle 40s
southeast.
In the fast flow mid and high level clouds to decrease Sunday
evening as a weak shortwave departs the area and then increase
again late ahead of another shortwave moving into the Great
Lakes. Pressure gradient tightens up keeping winds up around 10
to 15 mph overnight. Temperatures will be milder with lows from
the middle to upper 20s.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
The overall longwave pattern to start the extended period will
consist of a low amplitude ridge over the Rocky Mountain States with
troughing across the Eastern Seaboard. Between these two systems,
brisk west-northwesterly flow aloft will offer several fast-moving
disturbances through the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley. However, of
note is an overall lack in deep moisture advection into the region.
This will result in limited opportunity for significant weather
impacts.
On Monday, southwesterly boundary layer flow will bring well above
normal temperatures. A disturbance will race through the Great Lakes
late in the day through the overnight, with a slight chance of rain
across the north closest to the shortwave. A slightly stronger
system will accompany a cold front late Wednesday into Thursday.
Chances for rain are a bit higher for this system, with colder
(but still above normal) air filtering in behind the front on
Thursday.
High pressure appears to briefly build across the region Friday,
with southerly flow returning to start next weekend. The longwave
pattern is trending more amplified by Saturday, with warm advection
bringing temperatures back to well above normal levels.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR conditions to prevail thru the TAF forecast period. Mid
level ceilings across the TAF sites will scatter out later this
afternoon as a shortwave moves off to the southeast. Additional
mid and high level clouds will spill into the area from the
northwest on Sunday ahead of the next shortwave.
Southwest winds around 10kts this afternoon will subside to
less than 10kts tonight.
OUTLOOK... MVFR conditions will be possible on Tuesday and
Wednesday.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...AR
NEAR TERM...AR
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...AR
Source:
ILN issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Feb 22, 3:43 PM EST---------------
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