CLE issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Feb 23, 6:54 PM EST131
FXUS61 KCLE 232354
AFDCLE
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
654 PM EST Sun Feb 23 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure exits tonight with southwesterly winds taking hold
Monday. A weak disturbance brings a few showers Monday night
into early Tuesday, followed by high pressure once again. The
next low pressure system arrives Wednesday into Wednesday night.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
6:30 PM Update...
Kept the forecast dry this evening despite a large area of light
radar returns showing up over Lake Erie and northern Ohio
associated with a mid/upper shortwave moving across the
southern Great Lakes. NAM and RAP BUFKIT forecast soundings
show mid-level moisture with the shortwave leading to the
overcast skies, but abundant dry air remains in place. This will
prevent anything from reaching the ground.
Original Discussion...
Weak upper level trough currently traversing the lower Great Lakes
with light precipitation (snow across central MI), moving east
southeastward. The southern edge of this trough axis will clip our
CWA, but will keep the forecast dry. Low levels of the atmosphere
are decidedly dry, and likely not enough precipitation falling out
of the mid levels to achieve any sort of saturation in this dry
layer. Showing a non-precipitation rise in POPs to show the feature,
but again, keeping the forecast dry this afternoon and evening.
Trough exits, and clearing commences in low level warm air advection
tonight, only to have high level cloud cover return Monday through
the day. This is due in part to the upper level jet entrance region
to the north of the CWA and the PVA in the 500mb flow to the south
and southwest of our forecast area. After 00Z Tuesday, and elevated
cold front will push into the CWA. There is a surface cold front
with this but it is situated back upstream, and will not be a factor
in our CWA before 12Z Tuesday. This is an elevated cold front that
will undergo strengthening 03-09Z Tuesday as it moves into the CWA.
F-gen in the low/mid levels peaks around 09Z, and ramp up the POPs
in the southeastern zones during this time frame. Not going to be a
high QPF feature, and should be all rain with temperatures holding
on in the mid, perhaps upper 30s by 12Z Tuesday. Temperatures will
continue their climb Monday with better pronounced southwesterly
flow and cold air advection with widespread low to mid 40s
prevailing. Increasing dewpoints and winds should aid in the
snow melting process.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Above-average temperatures are expected for the short term period
with highs in the mid to upper 40s on Tuesday, further increasing
into the low to mid-50s by Wednesday. Lingering light rain showers
are possible behind a surface trough Tuesday morning, though dry
weather is favored for much of the day.
A low pressure system will sweep east through the Lower Great Lakes
Wednesday into Thursday associated with a sharp upper-
level trough. Primarily rain is expected with this system Wednesday
night into Thursday morning, with total amounts trending slightly
higher than previous model runs - generally around a quarter of an
inch with isolated higher amounts near a half-inch possible.
Anticipate much of the current snowpack to have melted by the time
this system arrives, but may still need to monitor area rivers for a
low-end flood potential.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
For the most part, seasonable temperatures are favored for the long
term period with daily highs in the low to mid-40s. A brief shot of
cold air on Sunday will usher in below average temperatures in the
upper 20s to lower 30s.
An active upper-level pattern will develop for the long term
period, with a troughing regime favored across the Eastern CONUS.
Lingering surface troughing may result in light precipitation
Thursday, with confidence increasing in lake-enhanced rain and/or
snow across Northeast Ohio and Northwest Pennsylvania Thursday
evening and overnight as the upper-level trough axis swings through.
A stronger clipper system will move east through the Central Great
Lakes Friday night into Saturday, though confidence is low on
precipitation coverage, particularly across the Lower Great Lakes. A
brief shot of colder air will arrive behind this system, dropping
temperatures back to below average in the 20s and 30s by Sunday.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z Monday THROUGH Friday/...
A weak mid/upper shortwave over the southern Great Lakes will
move east this evening, with any precip aloft not reaching the
ground due to abundant low-level dry air. This will keep
conditions VFR with a broken to overcast 5 to 10 thousand food
cloud deck. The cloud deck will lift tonight and Monday to
mainly 20 to 25 thousand feet, but another strong upper jet on
the southern flank of a shortwave crossing the northern Great
Lakes will bring some 5 to 10 thousand foot cigs back to KERI
and possibly KCLE and KYNG in the late afternoon and evening.
Again, conditions will stay dry and VFR.
S to SW winds will decrease to 5-10 knots tonight, but an
increasing pressure gradient will lead to SW winds increasing to
15-20 knots by Monday afternoon, with gusts of 25-35 knots at
times, especially west of I-71 and near the lakeshore.
Outlook...Periodic rain showers with non-VFR possible Monday
night through Tuesday and again Wednesday through Thursday
night.
&&
.MARINE...
Lake Erie is primarily ice-covered and thus Small Craft Advisory
issuance remains suspended until further notice. No additional
marine headlines are expected through the upcoming week. South to
southwest winds may peak in the 20 to 25 knot range with
occasional gusts up to 30 knots on Monday. Significant breaks or
shifts in the ice across Lake Erie are possible and will need to be
monitored. Otherwise, winds are expected to generally range
in the 10 to 15 knot range through the rest of the week.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...26
NEAR TERM...Garuckas/26
SHORT TERM...Kahn
LONG TERM...Kahn
AVIATION...Garuckas
MARINE...Kahn
Source:
CLE issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Feb 23, 6:54 PM EST---------------
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