LMK issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Feb 23, 3:33 PM EST496
FXUS63 KLMK 232033
AFDLMK
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
333 PM EST Sun Feb 23 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
* Dry weather continues, with milder temperatures expected on
Monday.
* Milder weather through the middle of the week, with the next
chance for rain Wednesday afternoon through Thursday.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 332 PM EST Sun Feb 23 2025
This afternoon, a weakly-defined area of sfc high pressure is
located across the TN valley, bringing light S/SW winds to the area.
Split upper level flow over the center of North America has left our
region sandwiched in the dry/clear area between the southern stream
disturbance along the Gulf Coast and the northern stream disturbance
over the Canadian Prairies. Sunny skies abound, which has helped
temperatures to warm into the mid 40s across much of the area at
this hour. As we head through the rest of the afternoon and evening,
mostly sunny skies are expected to continue, with a few high clouds
drifting across the area from west to east.
Tonight, as the northern stream disturbance shifts toward the Great
Lakes, sfc pressure falls to the north of the region will strengthen
the ambient pressure gradient. In more well-mixed areas, a light
southerly breeze should continue overnight, with rural areas and
valleys more likely to experience calm winds as the boundary layer
decouples. As a result, would expect a pronounced ridge-valley and
urban-rural split in temperatures overnight. Lows should fall into
the mid 20s (possibly low 20s?) in the cooler areas, with the urban
centers likely only falling to around 30 degrees.
Tomorrow, the southern stream wave will shift toward Florida while
the northern stream wave crosses the Great Lakes. In between these
two troughs, a SW-NE oriented 850 mb thermal ridge will descend
toward the area from the northwest ahead of a decaying sfc cold
front. As a result, expect temperatures to be nearly 10 degrees
warmer than continuity on Monday afternoon, and temperatures could
overperform if deeper mixing into the warming air mass aloft is
realized. Mid- and high-level clouds will increase from northwest to
southeast through the day; however, filtered sunshine is expected
through most if not all of the daytime hours. Winds will be stronger
out of the SW late tomorrow morning and tomorrow afternoon, with
sustained winds of 8-15 mph expected.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 332 PM EST Sun Feb 23 2025
Monday Night through Tuesday Night...
A relatively dry airmass will remain in place Monday night. An upper
level shortwave trough is forecast to move southeast over portions
of the Midwest before reaching the Ohio Valley on Tuesday. Expect
partly cloudy conditions late Monday with increasing cloud cover
across southern IN and north-central KY Tuesday morning. Lows will
be milder than recent nights given the already established WAA
pattern. Lows in the mid/upper 30s will be common Tue morning.
There remains a very small chance for brief light rain Tue morning,
mainly in the northeastern forecast area (Madison IN southeast
through the Bluegrass). However, most look to stay dry with
afternoon temps warming into the mid/upper 50s. With more expected
sunshine, south-central KY has a reasonable shot at touching 60
degrees Tuesday afternoon. We'll stay dry Tuesday night, with lows
in the mid 30s to around 40.
Wednesday through Saturday...
An amplifying upper level trough will move over the Upper Midwest
and central Plains on Wednesday as strong upper level ridging moves
over the West Coast. This deepening wave will push a sfc cold front
through the region Wednesday night, likely bringing widespread light
to moderate showers. The daytime period looks mainly dry and mild
given increasing SW flow WAA ahead of the approaching system. Highs
are likely to reach the low to mid 60s. Rain chances will increase
Wednesday evening and overnight. Cannot rule out at least isolated
thunder chances with weak elevated instability.
Temperatures will drop back into the 40s and possibly even upper 30s
Thursday morning with CAA in the wake of the front. Light precip
chances linger through Thursday in colder NW flow pattern with the
upper trough overhead. Highs will only reach the mid 40s to around
50. However, WSW return flow quickly develops once again Friday into
Saturday as an active northern stream storm track continues. This
period looks mainly dry in central KY and southern IN at this time,
with most of the moisture confined to the Upper Midwest and Great
Lakes. Look for highs in the mid 50s to near 60, with lows in the
30s to near 40.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1218 PM EST Sun Feb 23 2025
VFR conditions and light S/SW winds are expected this afternoon,
with FEW-SCT high clouds passing across the region. High pressure
over the Tennessee valley will gradually slide to the east tonight
into tomorrow morning, with an area of low pressure moving across
the Great Lakes tomorrow. This will bring stronger SW winds during
the day on Monday, with sustained winds generally between 8-14 kt.
More mid-to-high level clouds are also expected on Monday, but VFR
conditions should continue across all terminals.
&&
.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...None.
IN...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CSG
LONG TERM...EBW
AVIATION...CSG
Source:
LMK issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Feb 23, 3:33 PM EST---------------
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