PBZ issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Feb 21, 12:26 PM EST415
FXUS61 KPBZ 211726
AFDPBZ
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
1226 PM EST Fri Feb 21 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Lingering snow showers will begin to taper off today as high
pressure builds across the Upper Ohio Valley region. The high
will then maintain dry weather through the weekend. Light rain
and light snow chances return with a Monday warm front.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
KEY MESSAGES:
- Snow showers gradually tapering off today
- Cloudy and below normal temperatures again today
-----------------------------------------------------------------
Update...
The 12Z PIT sounding shows saturation and steep lapse rates in
the dendritic zone. This, and cold WNW flow off of the Great
Lakes, will maintain snow showers across the area into the
afternoon. The moisture depth is progged to gradually decrease
through the day, as 850 mb temperatures warm slightly. This
should result in the coverage of the snow showers gradually
tapering off.
Previous discussion...
Upper level height rises are expected throughout the day, in
response to Thursday's upper low moving out over the Atlantic.
Broad surface high pressure will build into the Midwest aiding
in the overall increase in subsidence. Even though heights will
be rising, we will still rest under NW flow. This will keep the
cold pool aloft stuck over the region for much of the day. This
would point to the stratocu deck hanging around and temperatures
remaining well below normal.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
KEY MESSAGES:
- A few snow showers linger through mid morning.
- Dry weather through the weekend under high pressure
- Slow warming trend
------------------------------------------------------------------
Updated the morning forecast to bring snow shower potential
along a bit longer. This is evident by the continued show shower
activity as the morning sounding indicates that some shallow low
level moistures is still present and also -15 C in the DGZ this
morning. Thus snow showers are expected to continue at least
through 15Z. Thus, have extended the Winter Weather Advisory
till 15Z.
Previous discussion...Surface high pressure is expected to
build across the Ohio Valley region, and is progged to be
centered over WV on Saturday. Generally dry weather is expected,
with the last of the stratocu eroding Saturday morning.
The high is expected to move off the East Coast on Sunday, with
dry weather continuing. A gradual warming trend is expected
through the period, with temperatures near seasonable levels by
Sunday.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
KEY MESSAGES:
- Periodic precipitation chances through the period
- Near seasonable temperatures
-------------------------------------------------------------------
Model ensembles indicate an amplified pattern will set up across
the CONUS through next week. Troughs embedded in this pattern
will result in periodic precipitation chances in the forecast
through the week. The strongest of these troughs is progged for
Thursday, where the highest POPs are included in the forecast.
Mainly rain is expected, though a mix or change to snow is
possible at times in cold advection after the passage of these
troughs.
Temperatures are expected to average near seasonable levels
through the period.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Cold advection will continue into the early afternoon as some
lingering snow showers continue to stream southeast off the
lake. Expect some IFR to MVFR conditions into the afternoon with
the last of the snow showers passing through.
With that said, intermittent MVFR cigs are possible through the
evening and overnight as this northwest flow continues. Winds
will remain W to WNW through the evening with some gusts over
20 knots at times before decoupling tonight.
Otherwise, expect MVFR cigs by the end of the TAF period in
most terminals.
Outlook...
High pressure will promote dry weather and a return to VFR
conditions Saturday into Sunday. A series of shortwaves are
expected to drop out of the Great Lakes early next week,
bringing restrictions and periodic precipitation chances.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
OH...None.
WV...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...WM/22
NEAR TERM...WM/22/Shallenberger
SHORT TERM...WM/22
LONG TERM...WM
AVIATION...Shallenberger
Source:
PBZ issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Feb 21, 12:26 PM EST---------------
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