ILN issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Feb 20, 12:37 AM EST200
FXUS61 KILN 200537
AFDILN
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
1237 AM EST Thu Feb 20 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure over the Upper Mississippi Valley to track
southeast across the area overnight into Thursday, bringing
light snow to the area. Additional snow showers will persist
Thursday night with cold air coming off the Great lakes. High
pressure will offer dry weather Friday into this weekend.
Below normal temperatures are on tap through the end of the
week. Temperatures rise this weekend but remain below normal.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
Continued the winter weather advisory. While snowfall amounts
are expected to be less than the traditional winter weather
advisory criteria, with cold conditions continuing overnight
snow will easily stick to untreated surfaces.
Temperatures will drop into the single digits to teens
overnight. Some wind chill values will be below zero, however do
not think that they will reach cold weather advisory criteria.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
Mid level low over Ohio at sunrise will translate east to the
Mid Atlantic by evening. Snow to taper off for much of the area
late Thursday morning into the afternoon. The exception being a
stream of moisture moving southeast from Lake Michigan which
will continue the threat for snow showers across portions of
west-central Ohio and central Ohio thru the day into Thursday
night. Some locations may end up with around 2 inches due to
the longer duration of snow shower activity. The pressure
gradient tightens between surface high pressure over the Nations
mid section and low pressure off the east coast. Northwest
winds will increase Thursday afternoon into the evening with
gusts of 20-25 mph. Some blowing snow will be possible with
fresh snow cover. Cold temperatures continue with highs Thursday
from 20-25 and lows Thursday night from the single digits over
Eastern Indiana to 15 across portions of Central Ohio.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Surface high pressure will build into the region Friday. It's
influence will continue through the weekend, even as it moves off to
the east on Sunday. Temperatures will be below normal Friday and
Saturday before approaching normal values on Sunday.
Mid-level flow will become northwesterly next week as the northern
stream becomes quite active. The first in a series of disturbances
will move east through the Great Lakes late on Monday. With
southwesterly surface winds ahead of the system, Monday will be
warmer than normal. Can't rule out some precipitation (rain) across
the north, though most areas will likely remain dry.
Another quick-moving shortwave descends into the Ohio Valley to
close the extended period on Wednesday. This looks to be a bit
further south, so have chance PoPs area-wide this day. Temperatures
will continue to run above normal.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Banded light SN will continue for the local terminals through
the predawn hours before tapering off from W to E around 12z.
This SN is leading to prevailing MVFR/IFR VSBYs alongside MVFR
CIGs. The intensity of the SN should decrease gradually by/after
08z or so (to mainly MVFR/VFR VSBYs), transitioning more to
widespread/steady flurries.
There is the potential for some lake-effect/enhanced SHSN to
pivot back to the SE into far nrn parts of the local area past
21z or so, potentially impacting KDAY/KCMH/KLCK. However,
confidence in the timing/location of this activity is somewhat
low, so decided to go with a PROB30 for now, with the greatest
chance for some SHSN activity to focus around KCMH/KLCK in the
several hour period around 00z Friday.
MVFR CIGs will attempt to go VFR for wrn sites for the daytime,
with some scattering out possible late in the period. Light NNW
less than 10kts will go more out of the WNW at 12-15kts, with
gusts to around 20kts, by 18z before subsiding once again to
10kts or less late in the period.
OUTLOOK... MVFR ceilings may persist at times Thursday night
into Friday. MVFR vsbys possible Thursday night.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...Winter Weather Advisory until 11 AM EST this morning for
OHZ026-034-035-042>046-051>056-060>065-070>074-077>082-
088.
KY...Winter Weather Advisory until 11 AM EST this morning for
KYZ089>100.
IN...Winter Weather Advisory until 11 AM EST this morning for
INZ050-058-059-066-073>075-080.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...AR
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...KC
Source:
ILN issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Feb 20, 12:37 AM EST---------------
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