MOB issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Feb 17, 11:27 AM CST ...New AVIATION...126
FXUS64 KMOB 171727
AFDMOB
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
1127 AM CST Mon Feb 17 2025
...New AVIATION...
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1127 AM CST Mon Feb 17 2025
VFR conditions will persist with a light northeasterly wind
becoming easterly overnight. BB-8
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 521 AM CST Mon Feb 17 2025/
..New AVIATION...
AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 520 AM CST Mon Feb 17 2025
VFR conditions are expected over the next 24 hours. North winds
will become northeast and diminish today, remaining light through
tonight. 34/JFB
PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 315 AM CST Mon Feb 17 2025/
.New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...
NEAR TERM...
(Now through Tuesday)
Issued at 212 AM CST Mon Feb 17 2025
Dry and cool conditions will continue through Tuesday with surface
high pressure building in from the north and semi-zonal flow
aloft. Highs will not make it out of the 50s today, moderating a
few degrees for Tuesday with upper 50s/low 60s expected. We will
drop back down into the 30s for tonight, except for low 40s at the
beaches. 34/JFB
SHORT TERM...
(Tuesday night through Wednesday night)
Issued at 212 AM CST Mon Feb 17 2025
The weather will quickly change Tuesday night as a surface low
develops off the upper TX coast in response to a shortwave moving
into the southern Plains/lower MS River Valley. This surface low
will move across the northern Gulf late Tuesday night into
Wednesday morning. Rain will overspread the area after midnight
and persist through Wednesday morning. Strong 850-700mb
frontogenesis will focus across the southern half of the area,
resulting in periods of moderate to heavy rain. As a result, rain
totals of 1-2 inches are expected across most of the forecast
area, with the highest totals focused along the coastal counties.
Cannot rule out localized amounts up to 3" for coastal areas due
to the aforementioned frontogenetic forcing. However, we are not
anticipating any significant flooding issues at this time. The
rain is forecast to quickly shift east of the forecast area
Wednesday afternoon as the surface low quickly moves of the
southeast Atlantic coast. In the wake of the low, arctic high
pressure will begin to build into the area as a strong northern
stream shortwave amplifies over the Midwest/Ohio Valley. It will
turn very cold Wednesday night with lows dropping into the low to
mid 20s far inland with upper 20s/lower 30s along the coast.
Breezy conditions given the strength of the cold air advection
will lower wind chills into the upper single digits/lower teens
far inland with teens/20s along the coast. It should be noted that
the current forecast low for Mobile for Thursday morning is 27
and the record low for the date is 26. 34/JFB
LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Sunday)
Issued at 212 AM CST Mon Feb 17 2025
Thursday and Thursday night will be the coldest day/night of this
period with the arctic airmass becoming entrenched across the
region. Highs Thursday will not make it out of the 40s, which is
is typically very hard to do for late February. To put it in
perspective, for February 20th, Mobile has only had seven days
with highs in the 40s, with the record low high temperature of 47
set in 1940. Pensacola has had 6 days of highs in the 40s, with a
record low high of 44 set in 1921. The current forecast highs for
that day are 48 in Mobile and 49 in Pensacola. Guidance has
continued to trend colder, so these forecast highs may need to be
lowered further in upcoming forecasts.
Record lows are possible for Friday morning as well with lows
dropping into the upper teens/low 20s well inland and mid to
upper 20s across the coastal counties. Record lows for February
21st, are 28 in Mobile and 21 in Pensacola, so Mobile would be
more likely to break the record.
We will slowly moderate temperatures on Friday through the
weekend, but temperatures will remain below normal. Rain chances
enter back into the forecast picture Saturday night into Sunday
with a passing shortwave in active zonal upper level flow. 34/JFB
MARINE...
Issued at 212 AM CST Mon Feb 17 2025
Strong offshore flow early this morning will diminish by mid to
late morning as high pressure settles in from the north. The Small
Craft Advisory will expire at 9am this morning.
After a brief period of lighter winds this afternoon through
early Tuesday, east to southeast winds will begin to strengthen
Tuesday afternoon and Tuesday night in response to a surface low
developing over the far northwest Gulf. The low will track across
the northern Gulf, just south of the forecast area, Wednesday
morning. Moderate to strong east winds will become offshore by
Wednesday afternoon after the low moves east of the area. Strong
offshore flow will persist Wednesday night into Thursday as arctic
high pressure move in from the north and west. Seas over the Gulf
waters will build to 4-7 ft in response. A Small Craft Advisory
will likely become necessary for this period. The offshore flow
will diminish by Friday with seas subsiding. 34/JFB
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile 36 61 47 56 27 48 25 50 / 0 0 90 70 0 0 0 0
Pensacola 41 62 51 59 33 49 29 51 / 0 0 90 90 10 0 0 0
Destin 44 62 53 61 36 50 31 53 / 0 0 80 90 10 0 0 0
Evergreen 32 61 43 55 26 45 22 51 / 0 0 80 80 0 0 0 0
Waynesboro 32 59 40 50 21 43 20 47 / 0 0 90 50 0 0 0 0
Camden 30 58 40 51 23 42 20 47 / 0 0 80 70 0 0 0 0
Crestview 32 63 46 58 31 49 25 52 / 0 0 80 90 0 0 0 0
&&
.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
This product is also available on the web at:
www.weather.gov/mob
Source:
MOB issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Feb 17, 11:27 AM CST ...New AVIATION...---------------
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